New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting Ameister12:

I hear a similarity.

Wikipedia on Hurricane Alex:
Hurricane Alex was the first named storm, the first hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.


Wow
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30690
Ok....let me see if I am understanding this correctly....If this thing developes....it's most like to go anywhere from the pan handle of Florida to Mexico....basically west....South Florida and Tampa are definately off the hook....correct?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Walt because it takes the SSD site 25 years to move the floater thats why


Thats about right.


They Miss half the time on the first try too.

Me tinks they need a better joystick or a Keyboard with a 3
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Quoting kmanislander:


You haven't seen angry yet !. Where it is now has low TCHP relative to where it is heading.



LOL...
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Sink hole in China


...is that the one from Guatemala finally coming out the other side?

j/k
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Quoting smmcdavid:


And that map shows the predicted shear for Friday... Can't you read? :P


lol you win for best post of the day
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting that this potentially first named storm could potentially become our first hurricane and possibly even major...


More interesting that Alex in 2004 was the first named, first hurricane and first major hurricane of 2004.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting helove2trac:




well he has a map on there Big as day that says LOW SHEAR CAN YOU SEE


And that map shows the predicted shear for Friday... Can't you read? :P
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Early Cycle Guidance 93L
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The low to the east of 93L is looking better on satellite.. its moving WNW/NW so it looks like it may run into 93L.. and take over potentially as the CMC may be hinting at.. who knows..
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Alex, Andrew, Alicia...did I miss any first majors? I'm sure I did.
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Quoting StormW:


Hi! To answer...we need to see some good vorticity develop, and pressures fall at he surface, then it should be steady from there.

Note to helove2trac:
This is how to answer someones question.
Thanks StormW
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Look you... I'm asking a question to try to understand. I don't need smart ass remarks. Thanks!




well he has a map on there Big as day that says LOW SHEAR CAN YOU SEE
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Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting that this potentially first named storm could potentially become our first hurricane and possibly even major...

I hear a similarity.

Wikipedia on Hurricane Alex:
Hurricane Alex was the first named storm, the first hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Walt because it takes the SSD site 25 years to move the floater thats why
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Quoting Waltanater:


If it is dead, then why is NHC still referencing 92L on Floater 1 sat? This seems like the same system to me.


It's common for them to take a while to re-target floaters...especially when there's not much going on and yes, there isn't a lot going on right now. Wait til there's 3 or 4 going simultaneously
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Quoting StormW:
Angry!



You haven't seen angry yet !. Where it is now has low TCHP relative to where it is heading.

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Quoting helove2trac:





didnt you read
Dr Masters blog it said wind shear is low you are acting like the local mets

Geez, go easy, have you thought they are trying to learn, and you biting there head off might just make them decide to leave this great blog forever.
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Look you... I'm asking a question to try to understand. I don't need smart ass remarks. Thanks!
You go girl! Be nice, people...we are all in this together!
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The LGEM intensity is typically used by the NHC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30690
Thanks to all that answered my question. I usually don't ask many.
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wow 100 comments in less than 30 mins
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Doom-casting in general, not surprising, doom-casting when there's a lack of official LLC ... it was kinda painful to even lurk.

LOL
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


151

WHXX01 KWBC 211310

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W

BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W

BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W

LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W

BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W

BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W

LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W

SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


I wonder how long it will take to get the "93l floater" up.
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Interesting that this potentially first named storm could potentially become our first hurricane and possibly even major...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30690
Quoting helove2trac:





didnt you read
Dr Masters blog it said wind shear is low you are acting like the local mets


Look you... I'm asking a question to try to understand. I don't need smart ass remarks. Thanks!
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a href="" target="_blank">Link

Good video uploaded an hour ago about 93L (Answers a ton of questions)
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.
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Quoting IKE:
92L is dead. Forget 92L...please.


If it is dead, then why is NHC still referencing 92L on Floater 1 sat? This seems like the same system to me.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters... I think you are going to be awfully busy this season.

Question for those who actually understand all this: so the reason 93L probably won't develop until later this week is because the wind shear is still high now, but forecasted to decrease? Be nice to me please... :)


Shear is low but, it has a long way to go as there is hardly any spin even at 850mb (5000ft above sea level). One could argue it was tagged a little premature.

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I believe the shear and water temps are just right for development but 93L doesn't have enough of a spin to yet to ramp up quickly as of yet.
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The ABC islands are reporting N winds while the Buoy is reporting SE windsLink
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It aint never something..till itsa spinning and has a Warm Column built and a good heading.

Yada,yada..yada
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151

WHXX01 KWBC 211310

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W

BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W

BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W

LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W

BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W

BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W

LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W

SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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there are more tornados in fla because of there being more trailer parks :)
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30690
Thank You Dr.......It looks like a slow burner and NHC, which is of course the Official forecaster, is not going to jump the gun on this one, no matter how good it looks in the short term, because of the ramifications and so many uncertanties at the moment as to potential tracks.......We need an actual "storm" to track, and for the models to properly latch on to, before potential long-term impacts can be looked at. Translation? Take a deep breath and watch and wait for persistence over the next 24 hours into tommorow......... :)
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Sink hole in China
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Quoting RJT185:
Thanks Dr. Masters, that post was like a cold shower for a lot of folks in this blog. Until an LLC is confirmed this is anyone's guess. I'm surprised at the amount of doom-casting that is/was taking place over 93L.


If doom-casting surprises you... you haven't been around long. This is nothing.
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Can someon please post that nifty LSU link that updates every few minutes when there is a hurricane? TIA
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Joe Bastardi has already upped his predictions for this year. Check it out.

Link
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SST
(Late yesterday)

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Quoting Ameister12:

My bad.

its alright i knew it was the 00z run cause i saw it when it came out
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78. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Link


Thanks...oh my.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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