New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting leo305:
The low to the east of 93L is looking better on satellite.. its moving WNW/NW so it looks like it may run into 93L.. and take over potentially as the CMC may be hinting at.. who knows..


scottsvb knows his stuff, that could be the one to watch down the line as far as the US is concerned.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting JDSmith:


You trippin, holmes. Chillax and watch the show.

Hey, that's my word... lol
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Quoting Chicklit:
Figure 2 (above) is a great map visually!
The Central Florida met on Brighthouse an hour ago didn't know there was an invest in the Caribbean, was still calling it a wave, and said shear would break it up.


I watched that met too.. evidently he hasn't looked at the shear forecast.. or the conditions in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting Floodman:


He IS panicking!


Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting CaneWarning:


I said I'm not worried about that area, I didn't say I didn't care about that area.


Well thats makes sense.


I defer then.

And will sip on my Java roni and re-load the GFS.
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Quoting IKE:
Unless/until it changes course, it looks headed for the Yucatan.



You can hope, right?
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Quoting Funkadelic:


I feel that we will be having more then one storm in the Caribbean this weak. I was looking at the NAM model at 84HRS and it is showing "3" areas of low pressure. What are you thinking Drak?


Not a fan of the NAM. It seems the NOGAPS tries to develop 93L and the system behind it. The CMC develops the system behind 93L. Very complex situation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx.
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Quoting Patrap:


You should go into Politics instead of weather then.

Maybe Texas.



I said I'm not worried about that area, I didn't say I didn't care about that area.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Figure 2 (above) is a great map visually!
The Central Florida met on Brighthouse an hour ago didn't know there was an invest in the Caribbean, was still calling it a wave, and said shear would break it up.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11172
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Ok tone down the caps, makes you seem like you are panicking


He IS panicking!
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Audrey (Cat 4) 1957 I believe.


Allen too
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm not worried about that area quite so much since I don't live there.


You should go into Politics instead of weather then.

Maybe Texas.

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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Worry about the Caribbean for the time being. It's going to cause a lot of rainfall somewhere at least.


I'm not worried about that area quite so much since I don't live there.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
The floater may be, but the reference itself is not. That is still on the nhc site. Just wondering... Thanks though.
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Well,..Oil Zilla is Born maybe.

So we have the Grace of time and some good tools when she POPS later downstream.

G-4 flights,..HH runs..,Jeff Masters,and a Bleacher full here as well, so this may be the most observed Storm ever.


Stop saying "Yucatan" Ike..

Ya gonna give me da willie's.

J/K
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For anyone look for a floater I think this functions pretty well as one:

SSD PR
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting CaneWarning:


I think you can't even say that about S. Florida and Tampa. The whole state and GOM need to watch this one.
Worry about the Caribbean for the time being. It's going to cause a lot of rainfall somewhere at least.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Alex, Andrew, Alicia...did I miss any first majors? I'm sure I did.
Audrey (Cat 4) 1957 I believe.
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Give it some time folks and the closed low will develope. This is going to be a long year. :(
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A possible system in terms of track and intensity to compare what 93L might do is Claudette 2003.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting connie1976:


...lol... bad wording....most likely would probably have been better?


I think you can't even say that about S. Florida and Tampa. The whole state and GOM need to watch this one.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
155. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS N GULF KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE
E TO SE BREEZE ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH TUE. WIND SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN REACH
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING W ACROSS S PART OF
BASIN THROUGH THU. BROAD LOW PRES ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FRI
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
If 92L pulls that whole surface circulation drama like half the storms in 2008 I'm really going to be driven out of my mind.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I CAN'T BELIVE THIS WE HAVE 93L AND THIS IS THE BEST ONE YET AND THERE ISENDING OUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INTO IT THE NHC BUMP IT UP TO 20% FORECAST BRINGS IT TO OUR AREA THIS THING IS GOING TO BE ALEX AND MIGHT GET RETIERD WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB,



You trippin, holmes. Chillax and watch the show.
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Looks like we will be getting an Ascat pass on the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W CONTINUE W ACROSS NW
CARIBBEAN INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 67W MOVE W-NW ACROSS E CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. WAVE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
STRONG WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND WIDESPREAD TSTMS
ALONG AXIS ARE EXPECTED.
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE REACH TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS TUE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
$$
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Quoting fire635:


"definitely" is not a word that should be used in tropical weather. Nothing is definite


...lol... bad wording....most likely would probably have been better?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I CAN'T BELIVE THIS WE HAVE 93L AND THIS IS THE BEST ONE YET AND THERE ISENDING OUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INTO IT THE NHC BUMP IT UP TO 20% FORECAST BRINGS IT TO OUR AREA THIS THING IS GOING TO BE ALEX AND MIGHT GET RETIERD WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB,



Calm down. LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
How about Audrey and Allen? They were major.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I guess we do have a surface low lol

that cant be right though can it?


We do have a surface low it is just not a closed low.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I CAN'T BELIVE THIS WE HAVE 93L AND THIS IS THE BEST ONE YET AND THERE ISENDING OUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INTO IT THE NHC BUMP IT UP TO 20% FORECAST BRINGS IT TO OUR AREA THIS THING IS GOING TO BE ALEX AND MIGHT GET RETIERD WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB,



Ok tone down the caps, makes you seem like you are panicking
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I CAN'T BELIVE THIS WE HAVE 93L AND THIS IS THE BEST ONE YET AND THERE ISENDING OUT THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INTO IT THE NHC BUMP IT UP TO 20% FORECAST BRINGS IT TO OUR AREA THIS THING IS GOING TO BE ALEX AND MIGHT GET RETIERD WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 123N, 632W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 645W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 128N, 659W, 25, 1009, DB,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 130N, 672W, 25, 1010, DB,

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Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Flood!


Wie gehts, Grothar?
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Quoting connie1976:
Ok....let me see if I am understanding this correctly....If this thing developes....it's most like to go anywhere from the pan handle of Florida to Mexico....basically west....South Florida and Tampa are definately off the hook....correct?


"definitely" is not a word that should be used in tropical weather. Nothing is definite
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...


Yo, Flood!
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Just forget it this is stessful my headachs i am sorry for causing such confusing it just some people not saying you smmcdavid ask crazy questions but you cool my bad just upset about a possible hurricane in the gom with all the oil it is a disaster waitin to happen
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Quoting smmcdavid:


And that map shows the predicted shear for Friday... Can't you read? :P


LOL...tell the pre-teen!
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H-101,

LOL, yeah I guess you're right on that one. I'll check their site later. This will be one to watch for sure. Thanks.
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136. IKE
Unless/until it changes course, it looks headed for the Yucatan.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:


I guess we do have a surface low lol

that cant be right though can it?
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Quoting Patrap:


Thats about right.


They Miss half the time on the first try too.

Me tinks they need a better joystick or a Keyboard with a 3


HAHA, (That is the old version of LOL)
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Quoting connie1976:
Ok....let me see if I am understanding this correctly....If this thing developes....it's most like to go anywhere from the pan handle of Florida to Mexico....basically west....South Florida and Tampa are definately off the hook....correct?


Incorrect.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Waltanater:


If it is dead, then why is NHC still referencing 92L on Floater 1 sat? This seems like the same system to me.


NHC has nothing to do with the satellite floaters, other than providing a link to them on their website. Floaters are controlled by the Satellite Services Division (SSD) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS).
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting Floodman:


It's common for them to take a while to re-target floaters...especially when there's not much going on and yes, there isn't a lot going on right now. Wait til there's 3 or 4 going simultaneously


Thanks Floodman! We'll give them some time. LOL
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Looks like some west winds along venezuala's NE coastline,some mid level vorticy noted in 93l's cloud pattern
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Quoting Ameister12:

I hear a similarity.

Wikipedia on Hurricane Alex:
Hurricane Alex was the first named storm, the first hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.


Wow
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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