New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting Walshy:



I have it going due west.

It seems to be moving slow right?, what link are you looking at?
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227. ryang
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93L is very concerning. All the ingredients are in place for rapid development: high THCP, anticyclone overhead, low shear. This will be in an area similar to where Wilma was when she developed in 05 and we all know what happened there. Hurricane season is here with soon to be Alex. Let the games begin.
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that's right chicklit, i forgot too. i would love to be at the hopi indian reservation to see if the sun daggers go through the center of the spiral suns.
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What ever happened to that lady that was on here from Texas...I think her name was txalwaysprepared or something like that? I wonder how she made it through Ike.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:
I don't see invest 93 moving at all, the moisture seems to be moving north and even east



I have it going due west.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 908
221. 7544
wow over 200 post in ahour go go go

93l begining to look good at this hour!
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True story Floodman.
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ok, thanx walshy
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Cape Verde, 93L is going to reverse and roll into the Cape Verde islands.


LOL
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Morning everyone. How quickly we go from nothing to something. I definitely think it's going to be an interesting year in the tropics. If you haven't taken a look at your hurricane plans, you might want to start thinking about it, just as a precaution, regardless of where you live.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
Pat must not have ever heard the expression "Don't mess with Texas." LOL


Yeah, we do that all by ourselves...
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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Watch it, buddy!


You have mail...LOL
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I don't see invest 93 moving at all, the moisture seems to be moving north and even east
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Pat must not have ever heard the expression "Don't mess with Texas." LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Beautiful upper level ridge in the Caribbean on the GFS:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31905
Quoting rcmansour:
So far Atlantic is QUIET. Pacific is where all the action is. La Nina is suppose to work the opposite way


This is normal during any hurricane season and we aren't quite in La Nina just yet

The season appears like it will be getting kicked off this week.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


More interesting that Alex in 2004 was the first named, first hurricane and first major hurricane of 2004.


Let's not discuss 2004. Toooo much hurricane activity in S FL...Jeanne, Frances within 3 weeks of each other. Not to mention other storms on the West Coast. Stood out in my front yard this morning looking at my house and contemplating putting up shutters NOW!! LOL
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Dr. Masters forgot to mention summer solstice...That shear map he posted is a wunderground creation, according to its properties. And I can't get my generator started :( Is it better to somehow get out the old gas (yuck) or just add new gas to the old mix?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11503
Quoting Patrap:


You should go into Politics instead of weather then.

Maybe Texas.


Watch it, buddy!
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Quoting P451:
While I don't disagree that 93L looks to be the one to develop I am still waiting for it to actually become an organized system before I believe the models of doom.

Regardless, here's a 36 hour loop of 93L, 1 hour increments per frame, ending 1115AM ET.

Nice. There is definitely some cyclonic turning in the last few frames.
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Pat, no beignets this morning?
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morning guys on the first day of summer, what a scorcher its going to be today here in the old dominion and the SE. I see we have new 93L, showing quite a bit of promise, we could see the NHC hilight this in orange if this keeps up.
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So far Atlantic is QUIET. Pacific is where all the action is. La Nina is suppose to work the opposite way
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"Que no cunda el panico!" as the Chapulin Colorado used to say on an old-school TV show. I was about to start handing out Xanax for a while there.

Any confirmation on when the next ASCAT pass might be made available online? I'm curious to see if the system has begun developing circulation since the vorticity signatures were almost nil this morning.
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Inside a Tornado
http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/storm-chasers-bloody-tornado-ambush.html
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Quoting Patrap:
I gots a great deal on 4 cases of FRESCA yesterday.

Also picked up some Tiki Torch Fuel.


you may be handing out quite a bit of Fresca lol
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Hey Pat... Texas didn't do anything. :)


I was chiding the Distinguished Sen. Barton.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!?!


His backyard? MY BACKYARD!?!?!?!

LOL...making a popcorn and Dr. Pepper run...anyone need anything?
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See old 92L floater is showing 93L. I have contacted NOAA and they are working on it. Waiting for the data to come in first.

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Quoting Patrap:


You should go into Politics instead of weather then.

Maybe Texas.



Hey Pat... Texas didn't do anything. :)
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Well this is enough reason for me to go and fill the gas cans. I know it's a long way out, but I'd rather get my stuff now, before media starts to hype this up.

I have not been too worried in the past 3 years, about a storm heading my way, but...... StormW, I think it was the oil in Mother Natures Corn Flakes, not the stuff that turns snow yellow up North.


I always go and get my stuff just before the NHC posts watches or warnings for my area. The media doesn't normally really panic people until then.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
93L/Alex gonna hit Cayman Island, East Yucatan, West Cuba and Texas......
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190. srada
I just think its too early to be relying on model tracks for 93L..this could be a storm from mexico to the eastern seaboard..its a wait and see situation..
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I gots a great deal on 4 cases of FRESCA yesterday.

Also picked up some Tiki Torch Fuel.
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Quoting helove2trac:




well he has a map on there Big as day that says LOW SHEAR CAN YOU SEE


Chill out! It was a valid question.
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i have never seen a shear map like the one dr. masters posted. it so easy to understand. is this available somewhere?
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Losing some of its deep convection at this time.
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Well this is enough reason for me to go and fill the gas cans. I know it's a long way out, but I'd rather get my stuff now, before media starts to hype this up.

I have not been too worried in the past 3 years, about a storm heading my way, but...... StormW, I think it was the oil in Mother Natures Corn Flakes, not the stuff that turns snow yellow up North.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1417
Quoting Drakoen:
For anyone look for a floater I think this functions pretty well as one:

SSD PR


The old floater on 92L on the NOAA site still gives a pretty good image of 93L. At least it looks like 93L
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Quoting OminousCloud:
hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx.


No, they can not just yet.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 908
Quoting OminousCloud:
hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx.


hi we dont know yet it not even a storm
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93L
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Quoting leo305:
The low to the east of 93L is looking better on satellite.. its moving WNW/NW so it looks like it may run into 93L.. and take over potentially as the CMC may be hinting at.. who knows..


scottsvb knows his stuff, that could be the one to watch down the line as far as the US is concerned.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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