New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting IKE:


GFS 12Z still doesn't pick it up after 60 hours.


it very well could be that the GFS is just clueless on this particular system; wouldnt be the first time
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276. xcool
hey
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
haha. Well mine was an honest answer.

mine too, i noticed it afterwards ,lol
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in 2005 what date this the first storm form?
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Quoting Waltanater:


Yeah, it seemed a bit off there. Clear skies? I don't think so...LOL


Saw that, too, did ya? LOL
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Quoting Patrap:



Some tings one cant control..and my photobuckets are a tad full


lol fair enough

I can post the tracks if youd like
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270. IKE
Quoting 1900hurricane:
From Lake Charles. They sound like they might have been a little freaked by the ECMWF's 00Z solution. I don't blame them.

LONG TERM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO. PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH ONLY BRINGS
BENIGN WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES INTO THE AREA. THE EURO TAKES A
MORE REMARKABLE AND FRANKLY SCARY SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE STRAITS OF YUCATAN AND HURLING IT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH. A BIT
DISQUIETING CONSIDERING OUR OILY CHANLLENGES TO THE EAST AND THIS
IS THE SECOND DAY THAT THIS MODEL HAS PINGED ON THIS. LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS HAS A MORE PLEASANTLY CONSERVATIVE TREND ON THE EARLY
TROPICAL SEASON. AT ANY RATE...EXTREME SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL
WORLD ARE OUTLIERS AND ARE USUALLY WRONG.


GFS 12Z still doesn't pick it up after 60 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Patrap:
241. kanc2001

Not that it matters,..a Yellow Jacket tagged me good 2 weeks ago today.

Nasty Bastardi's they are


By the way, does anyone know what Bastardi's take is on 93L?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


keep em coming Pat, also might be good to alter the image address as people can see the name of the storm once the quote it lol



Some tings one cant control..and my photobuckets are a tad full
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There may be several hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf this year that will blur the lines of damage liability.
and when lines get blurry, policy holders get...well..you know.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
CaneWarning is correct.


And I didn't even cheat. I knew that one.
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Well, with WUWU2, we find ourselves in that interim period where an "L" is first declared, yet we have no spin. As we wait for a potential TD...now(for the next 7000 posts) is the time when the blog starts comparing this "L" to great destructive cyclones from the past. So, go ahead. These "L"'s never seem to remind folks of invests that went poof.
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Thanks
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Quoting Grothar:
See old 92L floater is showing 93L. I have contacted NOAA and they are working on it. Waiting for the data to come in first.



Yeah, it seemed a bit off there. Clear skies? I don't think so...LOL
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

by the way, when you put that link and you click it says this:
haha. Well mine was an honest answer.
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From Lake Charles. They sound like they might have been a little freaked by the ECMWF's 00Z solution. I don't blame them.

LONG TERM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO. PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH ONLY BRINGS
BENIGN WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES INTO THE AREA. THE EURO TAKES A
MORE REMARKABLE AND FRANKLY SCARY SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE STRAITS OF YUCATAN AND HURLING IT
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH. A BIT
DISQUIETING CONSIDERING OUR OILY CHANLLENGES TO THE EAST AND THIS
IS THE SECOND DAY THAT THIS MODEL HAS PINGED ON THIS. LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS HAS A MORE PLEASANTLY CONSERVATIVE TREND ON THE EARLY
TROPICAL SEASON. AT ANY RATE...EXTREME SOLUTIONS IN THE MODEL
WORLD ARE OUTLIERS AND ARE USUALLY WRONG.
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Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start



keep em coming Pat, also might be good to alter the image address as people can see the name of the storm once the quote it lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start


by the way, click it says this:
Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start

img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Camille_1969_track.png"
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TAmpaSpins Tropical Update

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If this storm becomes Hurricane Alex and moves anywhere near the northern Gulf, BP and the Federal Government will have a lot of liability issues to sort out.

Similar to the old insurance argument... BP lawyers will have a good legal argument. "How much of the coastal and marsh damage was from wind vs. water vs. oil?". "How much liability do we have to restore an environment that was damaged partially by oil, but mostly from hurricane wind and storm surge?"

There may be several hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf this year that will blur the lines of damage liability.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Camille?



Bingo!.

Now for a Yours only 100 Point Lagniappe one.

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Quoting helove2trac:
drakeon do you see the twist


Yes, however surface pressures are not falling at the present time
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Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start


Hurricane Camille
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241. kanc2001

Not that it matters,..a Yellow Jacket tagged me good 2 weeks ago today.

Nasty Bastardi's they are
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Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start

I think Camille?
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Quoting Patrap:
Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start



Camille?
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Quoting btwntx08:
wow just about over 230 comments in an hr wow
and most of them were weather related! Woohooooo! Most hurricanes that do develop in the area of 93L don't "shoot the gap" and end up in the GOM unscathed..only time will tell. Waiting patiently to see if a LLC develops.
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drakeon do you see the twist
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Quoting OminousCloud:
hello everyone. this is my first time posting . i just want to say i enjoy reading most of the info and comments you guys post . this site is definitely more informative than the television staions in my area. now, can anyone tell me if 93L will effect Central/Southern Florida? thanx.


Welcome, visit weather.gov and type in your zip code for the latest forcast, top of the WU page works as well.
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Name this Cat 5 Storm Trak for a 50 Point easy start

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242. 7544
we have aa spin there hey btw
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Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, baby...the GOM tour! Pat, you have front row seats, huh?



LOL!!

Widespread Panic : Greta


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane


Well, how's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


All the pictures on the wall
Have fallen to the ground
The trees bowing to the grass
In a silent hurricane
When the landlord calls


Mother Nature's gone to war
She's in a fighting mood
Greta's got a gun
This ain't no flowerchild


How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah
How's it gonna be
How's it gonna be yeah


There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door
There's a pack of rabid dogs
Pawing at my front door


There's a swarm of yellowjackets
Pounding against my window pane
There's a big ol' brama bull
Busting up my shotgun shack
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Lets Play..

Name that Storm Trak.

C'mon down...!
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Quoting P451:


It would appear as so but it could also be a trick of the waning of the storms.

In a few more hours a higher resolution loop should do the trick to see if that is the case.
Eh... I can definitely see a twist. The ascat pass will help determine that later on
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Quoting Patrap:


Nope..

Just BP Mocha..with a touch of VOC's


LOL...a cup of the bitter brew?
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Definitely becoming more banded and has a better circulation now than earlier this morning, but it's lost some of its deep convection.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
True story Floodman.


Yeah, imagine my chagrin when MY elected representative unzipped his fly on national television...then waited a few hours and did it AGAIN...LOL
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If you wanted to take a look at that shear map

Here:

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA
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Quoting Floodman:
Pat, no beignets this morning?


Nope..

Just BP Mocha..with a touch of VOC's
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Quoting Walshy:



I have it going due west.

It seems to be moving slow right?, what link are you looking at?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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