New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 328 - 278

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Goodnight all,,, stay safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


INV/93/L
MARK
13.2N/67.1W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


suprise hurricane of 1943?


ehhhhhhhhhh...NOPE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart...


Not gonna happen... Look at the forecast maps for the sheer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better *rolls eyes*


Muahahahahaha...now that's funny, I don't care who you are...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Opal 95 shows how fast we can get a Bad one...close to Home.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Okay whats this one

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


suprise hurricane of 1943?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stillwaitings blog on 93L,all questions/comments welcome,will we have alex by tomorrow night????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm):



Ethel was always second to Lucy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm):


I agree with you there. I see way more evidence pointing away from ranking Ethel as a Category 5 than towards it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Jeff Masters discusses Oil in the GOM and what a Hurricane can do.

NOLA Radio WWLNews 87 The Spud Show

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


By the way, does anyone know what Bastardi's take is on 93L?


Bastardis take on 93L:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay whats this one

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I can't seem to pinpoint the center of circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
If a Hurricane did make it into the gulf , it would actually help dissapate the oil, however abvously once you have a storm in the gulf and has to hit land.


dissipate the oil? by doing what bringing it inland? Yea ok cuz that is better *rolls eyes*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#306

Opal..95.

She almost caught many on I-10 Evacuating..but thankfully weakened rapidly before landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The only consecutive Cat 5 storm (even though I've never believed it should count as a Cat 5 storm):



Ethel 1960
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Models are picking up on a low developing SE of 93L.
The low in the itcz just to the east of the islands off the coast of s. america
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I was in Southampton,NY with my girlfriend. We had just gone to see Psycho and were told to leave because a storm was coming. Gee, Pat, I'm old enough to be your father. LOL


..I'll never turn to the Dark Side, Fatha..

Wooom,,Woom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The StormTop weather center should be opening up soon..............
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
Blog updated.

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 21st
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasGulf:
If this storm becomes Hurricane Alex and moves anywhere near the northern Gulf, BP and the Federal Government will have a lot of liability issues to sort out.

Similar to the old insurance argument... BP lawyers will have a good legal argument. "How much of the coastal and marsh damage was from wind vs. water vs. oil?". "How much liability do we have to restore an environment that was damaged partially by oil, but mostly from hurricane wind and storm surge?"

There may be several hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf this year that will blur the lines of damage liability.


Apples to oranges...BP is liable for all damages due to oil (or at least, should be). Storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, it doesn't matter that the water carried it or the wind whipped it up...BP isn't an insurance company and their liability is for OIL...they don't have a policy in place with exclusionary language...now, if the insurance carrier is required to pay something up front for damages directly due to the storm, there may be some lattitude as to the split, carrier to BP for payment
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:
Windsat
BINGO! That area of rotation just off the coast to the NE of S. America is what the CMC is developing and bringing to meet 93l.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Labor day 1935


The Labor Day storm developed in the Bahamas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
This one was Donna from my Birth Season..1960




Meteorological history
Storm path

The precursor to this storm was a well-organized tropical disturbance which moved off the shore of Africa on August 28 and 29th. The crash of an airliner at Dakar on the 29th was attributed to this disturbance. Before reaching the Cape Verde Islands, the system was well enough organized to be considered a tropical depression on the 29th. By the 30th, the system became Tropical Storm Donna. Moving westward, intensification continued, bringing the cyclone to hurricane strength on September 1. For nine days, September 2 to 11, Donna consistently had maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph (185 km/h) as it moved west-northwest, briefly achieving Category 5 strength. Donna passed through the northeasternmost Leeward Islands, subsequently missing Puerto Rico by 70 miles (110 km) to the north. The hurricane then skirted the Cuban coast on the 9th before heading for the Florida Keys.


I was in Southampton,NY with my girlfriend. We had just gone to see Psycho and were told to leave because a storm was coming. Gee, Pat, I'm old enough to be your father. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Convection has been very consistent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Donna near the Keys, Radar Image 1960

Wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Windsat
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting Patrap:



Bingo!.

Now for a Yours only 100 Point Lagniappe one.



Labor day 1935
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
290. xcool
hey ike tamp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Donna near the Keys, Radar Image 1960

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Original BP oil spill song rock n roll!


Same S...Different Day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:



Bingo!.

Now for a Yours only 100 Point Lagniappe one.


Well if no one else is going to answer that one, I guess I will. That is Donna from 1960, one of two Category 5s of that year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:
You go girl! Be nice, people...we are all in this together!


yeah! who hasnt asked a dumb question?? if there were only smarter met people in here they would have nobody to feel smarter than.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:



Bingo!.

Now for a Yours only 100 Point Lagniappe one.



That almost looks like the track Hurricane Charley took in 2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


If the rotation I'm beginning to see is centered on where the low level circulation will begin, then the models initiated the low too far south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This one was Donna from my Birth Season..1960




Meteorological history

Storm path

The precursor to this storm was a well-organized tropical disturbance which moved off the shore of Africa on August 28 and 29th. The crash of an airliner at Dakar on the 29th was attributed to this disturbance. Before reaching the Cape Verde Islands, the system was well enough organized to be considered a tropical depression on the 29th. By the 30th, the system became Tropical Storm Donna. Moving westward, intensification continued, bringing the cyclone to hurricane strength on September 1. For nine days, September 2 to 11, Donna consistently had maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph (185 km/h) as it moved west-northwest, briefly achieving Category 5 strength. Donna passed through the northeasternmost Leeward Islands, subsequently missing Puerto Rico by 70 miles (110 km) to the north. The hurricane then skirted the Cuban coast on the 9th before heading for the Florida Keys.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 328 - 278

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.