New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 428 - 378

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index



93L now active on the NOAA RAAMB Page

AL932010 - INVEST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

Were entering a period of Unknowns big Time scott

Were all gonna have to be on our toes now as the world will be watching here.

We can roll Info or go berserk.

Im gonna choose to roll Info.

Going beserk is definitely not the answer, Weve never been thru this before, hopefully its one of thoses things to where its not as bad as your imagination created. Time will tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
i saw a water temp in the GOM around 95F.WOW.


Nope thats just my hot tub
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well we do have a surface low developing, low shear, hot steamy waters, it is rapidly intensifying.


Dont misuse the words rapidly intensifying

It is steadily organizing is more like it and keep in mind the TWO is looking at development from 2pm today to 2pm on Wednesday and I just don't see the chances that high that we will see a classified system before recon shows up there Wednesday afternoon

Now by tonights TWO or the 2am TWO tomorrow morning, I can see the chances being bumped up, but not just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood.


Exactly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
254 TexasGulf "If this storm becomes Hurricane Alex and moves anywhere near the northern Gulf[...]BP lawyers will have a good legal argument. ' How much of the coastal and marsh damage was from wind vs. water vs. oil? How much liability do we have to restore an environment that was damaged partially by oil, but mostly from hurricane wind and storm surge? ' "


One would have a VERY difficult time finding some proof that hurricanes, even major with HUGE tidal surges, causes damage to coast wetlands when considered as a whole ecological system.
For that ya need humans, or a major ExtinctionEvent... not that there's a noticeable difference.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me


I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:


93L Seem more like a convergence line to me.
Seemed like that to me when I first looked this morning, but then... when you check out the convergence maps, there is hardly any at all, and it definitely doesn't correspond with the strongest convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lots of T & L here now so will sign off until later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me


I agree....don't think they'll be jumping all over this one right off the bat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves


Well we do have a surface low developing, low shear, hot steamy waters, it is rapidly intensifying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Keep in mind that the two other stations on the island are reporting SSE winds. If there is any westerly wind trying to start it is not very defined yet. We'll have to keep watching it.



True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twhcracker:


she was a pretty devastating dud! my gosh she wiped out the coast from pensacola to appalachicola. Entire streets and neighborhoods were washed away.


Right, the damage mainly occurred as a result of the surge, but the winds were not nearly as devastating as they could have been. Minimal cat 3 is a far cry from the strong cat 4 that people had expected. The rapid weakening of the winds was nice, but didn't afford the surge any time to slack off. Sorry, I didn't mean to offend anyone, I should change the wording...Opal wasn't a dud, she was just a good deal weaker at landfall than people expected. I'm clumsy with my words sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I still say they keep it at a yellow circle, but that is just me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Starting to see signs of a surface low.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
An early season storm (potential damage issues notwithstanding) is probably a good thing to get folks to heed what may be a pretty intense year and have them make suitable preparations for the season. Problem is, I would have preferred an early tropical storm over an early hurricane.....Oh Well......Let's see what happens with this disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots..



He called it a major concern. I respect his decision to not show us the model run of it being a cat2.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
ARE YOU NUTS NO WAY YOU GET A CAT 7...ONLY GO UP TO CAT 5 SILLY.


errr, it's called sarcasm..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:


He sees no reason to freak us all out yet.


Tru, I guess it's a good call then. All I'm saying, and I said this last nght, with those warm above average sea temps in the GOM, EXPECT a Hurricane to form IF shear values are low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twhcracker:
opal did catch many on I-10. My niece spent opal on I-10 in the jam.


A situation like that could lead to a huge loss of life. I remember as Katrina was hitting there were rumors that there were hundreds of cars stuck on bridges...thank goodness those rumors were not true since those bridges didn't survive the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.
Quoting kmanislander:
Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing


Keep in mind that the two other stations on the island are reporting SSE winds. If there is any westerly wind trying to start it is not very defined yet. We'll have to keep watching it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go! We better stay on our toes!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Curacao is reporting NE and Bonaire is reporting winds out of the WNW (wind shift). A closed low is trying to form.


93L Seem more like a convergence line to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Are there oil plumes less than 500ft?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This thing is rapidly organizing, surface low is currently developing as we speak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!


LOL...if you're going to be a bear, be a grizzly!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing
yeppers time is real short for first storm to form
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:


The Red Spot on Jupiter is an Analog storm IMO


lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Thanks Pat for the audio of Dr. Masters. The unknown of toxic dispersants really bothers me!

Were entering a period of Unknowns big Time scott

Were all gonna have to be on our toes now as the world will be watching here.

We can roll Info or go berserk.

Im gonna choose to roll Info.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots..


He sees no reason to freak us all out yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!


The Red Spot on Jupiter is an Analog storm IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
opal did catch many on I-10. My niece spent opal on I-10 in the jam.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I honestly don't understand why Dr. Masters is going really conservative with this one when wind shear ahead of this invest is 5-10 knots..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
93L looks to have a very good chance of becoming the first storm of 2010.
and the first major to boot mark my words
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Wow...so you don't see the slightest possibility of something interfering with this feature developing? How about track? I imagine you can tell us exactly where it's going? A CAT7 super-hypercane in Tampa at 144 hours?

No, CAT8 into New Orleans. Already I think I see a pinhole eye!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have been following this website for over 6 years now and this is perhaps the first time I have seen Dr. Master stat; "major problem" for an invest!... That is pretty amazing... he didn't even use the word "potential." Scary stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Can't do it, have to have a special edition of java.


IE8 plus all the current updates and it works fine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bonaire now reporting WNW winds and falling pressure.

Surface low organizing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 428 - 378

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron