New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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ASCAT missed the east side but there is obviously no defined circulation yet.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Latest ASCAT a little too far west


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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Intensity guidance calls for a Hurricane:



The LGEM which the NHC likes to use takes this to TS strength in 36hrs which is reasonable.
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LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.
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Quoting TampaSpin:




What the *($%$%^ &&$@^^ &!@%$ is your problem man? LOL..... Hope you're wrong dude
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Quoting biloxidaisy:


errr, it's called sarcasm..lol


Thanks, daisy...LOL
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Way west of 90 West
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469. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:




Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K
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Tampa dont draw that line again! LOL
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Intensity guidance calls for a Hurricane:

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Where on the Gulf coast does this potiential TC need to hit, not to stop progress for long for BP?
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Invest 93 Intensity Model Forecast
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The blog is moving too fast. I'll be back later.
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looks like at least a 3000 post blog by tomorrow morning... Unless the Doc updates later today
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My forecast for 93L is:
80mph hurricane
landfall at yucatan(55% probablity) or:
100mph hurricane
Texas landfall(40% probablity)
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93L analog tracks:
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Its ok to have disagreements, we just have to understand the persons point of view, just as long as we don't get involved in arguements.
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Quoting reedzone:


No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol.


That wasn't directed at you, I think what you said made a lot of sense
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T & L= Thunder and Lightning

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Quoting reedzone:


No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol.


Like I said borderline yellow/orange.
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oooooffh..

Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 44 sec ago
Haze

95.0 °F

Haze
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 1.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 8.1 mph
Pressure: 30.06 in (Rising)

Heat Index: 111 °F

Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 3.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 3500 ft
Scattered Clouds 4200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
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Quoting jasoniscoolman09:
ARE YOU NUTS NO WAY YOU GET A CAT 7...ONLY GO UP TO CAT 5 SILLY.


Wow...you really need to unclench a little...life is too short
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450. IKE



Little spinner in the NE GOM....

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Quoting Levi32:
Scatt shows strong wind speed convergence as the strong trade winds coming across the Antilles slow down considerably in the vicinity of 93L. This forces air to pile up and rise, aiding in thunderstorm development.

I can see that on the visible satellite loop. Looks like someone up front hit the brakes.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


What is T & L?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


How Am I being conservative? I think we could very likely see a TD by the time recon goes out Wednesday, but for right now with 93L trying to organize; NHC may not upgrade from yellow



I said i understood ur point of view, i don't want to become involved in big arguements so i I'm trying to handle this disagreement as calmly as I can.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
CaneWarning

Thunder and Lightning

or in the south

Tuna and Lobster lol


Thanks, I never would've gotten that one.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I highly doubt we will see a TD tonight; I think that is getting a bit ahead of ourselves


No no you must of misunderstood what I was saying.. I said they might bump chances up on the TWO later this afternoon, POSSIBLY but not likely at orange code. More like 30% r something like that. I also said that a TD will likely form in a few days, not tonight. Trust me, I'm not going over myself here lol.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Once a surface low develops (IMHO by tomorrow), this thing could blow up fast. Remember Wilma, similar atmospheric conditions to this invest.
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T and L (thunder and lightning?)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You are being a little conservative, but i understand your point of view.


How Am I being conservative? I think we could very likely see a TD by the time recon goes out Wednesday, but for right now with 93L trying to organize; NHC may not upgrade from yellow

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Quoting RyanFSU:
The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what.



Not good if that verifies.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Dont misuse the words rapidly intensifying

It is steadily organizing is more like it and keep in mind the TWO is looking at development from 2pm today to 2pm on Wednesday and I just don't see the chances that high that we will see a classified system before recon shows up there Wednesday afternoon

Now by tonights TWO or the 2am TWO tomorrow morning, I can see the chances being bumped up, but not just yet.


You are being a little conservative, but i understand your point of view.
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Scatt shows strong wind speed convergence as the strong trade winds coming across the Antilles slow down considerably in the vicinity of 93L. This forces air to pile up and rise, aiding in thunderstorm development.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting DestinJeff:
"93L reminds me of Charikestavkatritawilvan. Not a good feeling."


LOL. You wrote that like a court reporter. 7 in one, not bad.
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CaneWarning

Thunder and Lightning

or in the south

Tuna and Lobster lol
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
wow where the heck did 93L come from?!?!?! ugghhhhh!!! I gotta Gustav gut feeling about this one... we're really counting on shear in the gulf to rip this one apart...

u got a Gustav feeling? What does that even mean?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Lots of T & L here now so will sign off until later.


What is T & L?
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Quoting RyanFSU:
The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what.



This is one i TRUELY hope is wrong...
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Quoting kmanislander:


True, but as far as I am aware this is the first time we have seen the wind shift to the WNW. Wind speed is very light which is typical for a developing low in the neighbourhood.


That is true too. The stations reporting SSE winds are only at 1mph and 2mph.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting RyanFSU:
The ECMWF model in the extended range is still suggesting a major hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle...3 consecutive forecasts have had something in the Gulf, but uncertainty about what.



Wait. Are you Ryan N. Maue PhD Meteorology?
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Quoting Levi32:


I agree....don't think they'll be jumping all over this one right off the bat.


Yeah but i think they will change it to orange, if not, probably the border line yellow/orange(30%)
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429. IKE
12Z GFS @ 228 hours....

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93L now active on the NOAA RAAMB Page

AL932010 - INVEST
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.