New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3628 - 3578

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Morning all!

This is starting to remind me of last years season, altho I know it wont be anything like it, I just mean in regards to how nothing could get going LOL. We are all going to go mental! lol.

Morning Storm

Kman, I really enjoy your input... one avatar I always look for to read what you have to say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3625. WxLogic
Good morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strange, the NHC didn't state why they bumped it down to 40%. They didn't say it has 'changed little in organization' or 'less organized.'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE



That fits with what we are seeing this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
look what happened to the gfdl major hurricane. now its a weak low in the west central gulf after being disrupted by the yucatan. gfs still shows nothing. hrwf has not updated if it shows nothing then the crazy cmc would be basically on its own , and thats normal lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
40% now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3617. IKE
Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3616. IKE
What I sense from the models is a broad area of low pressure in the GOM in 5-7 days. I see the ridge breaking down early next week on the GFS. In the end this may just be nothing more than an increase in moisture along the northern GOM.

It could be more, but I don't see it right now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I have the COC right between the two main convection blobs, thats also were the NRL has it too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey stormpetrol whats up what going on over by your side
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regardless of the potential for short term development, it is very close to Haiti right now and a potential nighmare for the earthquake vitims in temporary housing if the rains, or bands, expand across Haiti over the course of the day.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
Good morning

93L is still very disorganized this morning but that is not surprising given where it started. Even with an anticyclone overhead the Caribbean is simply not conducive for development until close to Jamaica near 75W.

The impression I get from the satellite imagery is one of two competing areas of relatively weak vorticity within a much larger and more diffuse gyre. Until the system resolves this dysfunctional structure it will not develop into a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3610. IKE
6Z GFDL
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I just wanted to say, the raw commentary in that video is hilarious!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks.


Its not looking ragged, the COC appears to be forming in the convection to the W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3604. MahFL
Stormpetrol, your just a touch too far west - imho,I see clouds moving south just west of 70.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3603. MahFL
The center seems to be forming at 70W 15.5N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COC of 93L in my estimartion 14.9N/72.8W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
The CMC comes up with the craziest scenarios, the GFS is some times too relaxed, i think we are bound to see one thing to develop soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
also the relief wells are no guarantee of success. i have rad other scientists opinions that another deep well could cause the same catastrophe we have now only two gushers instead of one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
maybe the gfs is right and 10000 posts will again be a waste of time lol. just wonder how many post thier will be when we have a real strong system heading for the us lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Agree Cyclone. Anyway, cu l8r.
Looks like they repositioned the floater (further out).
IRLoop
It's gonna be red at 8 a.m. but I won't shave my head if it's not!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3596. RJT185
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


morning!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L isn't showing much, nor organized voticity at any level at the moment. Still has a long way to go, IMO. Given the favorable conditions it's in, things can happen pretty quick once it decides it wants to make a move though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
HWRF takes it to 47.5kts near western jamaica, then does a weird fujiwara effect, turning almost straight north over cuba, then back to the central Gulf.


GFDL is still calling for one hell of a borderline category 3/4 hurricane over central gulf. 115kts, and practically a clone of Gustav.

CMC is trying to verify both a fujiwara and TWO 992mb-ish lows in the gulf.

GFS takes a western track into yucatan and does nothing with anything anywhere.



GFS takes a western track into yucatan and does nothing with anything anywhere. Wouldn't that be hilarious, the blog would have a heart attack. That's the one I am pulling for though. Trying to keep canes out of the gulf till they can get these relief wells in. They are ahead of drilling schedule but, depends on how long it takes to intersect the well line.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning to everyone. I think this thing is really going to get ramping up today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With the anticyclone over it, today might be the day we get a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
Based on the 850mb vorticity map, there could possibly be two main vortices. If this is the case, a mesoscale fujiwhara effect is currently occuring. You can see the two vort max areas combining.

Previous Three Hours


Current


Morning All.

Still having issues with the LLC this morning I see. Seems to be working out the bugs as the multi-vortices are more compact this morning. Another day, seems like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3590. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
while thier is the voices of reason on the blog this morning i will make this statement lol. ive seen people with tracks to texas, tracks to fla, tracks through the oil to the n/c gulf coast and its going to be a strong one.. the one forecast you dont hear is that it will hit the central yuc as a weak system, and either poof or remanats get into the southern boc and head to mexico which at the current speed and strength is well in the realm of possibility. these things i have observed tells me two things, we dont have many bloggers from the yuc or se mexico lol. and as ike mentioned yesterday,if this does not develop in the favorable surroundings it has,maybe thier is someething we are missing in the tropical setup. have a blessed day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
HWRF on the 00Z run had it centered correctly to me...Link



Yep looks like its got it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3585. IKE
Definitely a spin there. Convection is increasing, which is expected for the time of day that it is.

How many systems get designated a TD where 93L is at? Mostly happens west of where it is.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
93L has an anticyclone over it hey talk about low shear I think that this will help with (R I) rapid development

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3583. Walshy
Quoting SykKid:


Which is very typical during D-max. I don't think this system looks all that great. Convection is very shallow.



But you have to admit, it took some advantage of D-max and its starting to slowly strengthen. It looks better, still not great tho. I highly doubt it will go north and die in shear like you said. It seems like your down-casting a bit, unless you can tell me why it would go straight north when it has some westward movement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it appears that that 93L is sitting and waiting for the area now over trinidad. this area has a stronger 850mb vort and could be a seedling of its own
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3581. IKE
HWRF on the 00Z run had it centered correctly to me...Link

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I think I see one center dead on 16/70 moving north. Maybe. Gonna have to use the zoom on the Caribbean sat to get a better look. The CMC and NOGAPS have been showing multiple vorts spinning and merging.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3628 - 3578

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.