New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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It's funny... sometime earlier this month, I think Storm W said that we'd be in the clear until June 25...

Man, Storm... can you buy my next lottery ticket for me?

Keep your eyes on the storm and dust off your survival plan...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM.




The general direction of those ensemble members makes more sense than the exaggerated recurve into Mobile that the operational run had last night.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659
Quoting scott39:
My statement that you commented on was not "freaking out", it was just a tought.

hey scott, I sent you mail.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM.




Oh you have access...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low.


Conditions over and beyond the wave just got favorable this morning, which is why this was tagged. I'm more incline to believe a LLC will form tomorrow rather then today.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks



A good siphon for gas.

A good Radio with HAM Radio reception.





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Im so surprised that so many people are surprised by the "hyping" of this system already. Its the first real possibility of the season... as each model comes in and each model shows potential development its only going to get more intense around here. I have to say, I understand how things change and nothing is certain, but I definitely have both eyes on this system as well. This could bode to be very detrimental to the gulf coast. Especially with the oil situation
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Yesterdays ECMWF Ensemble had a wide variety of tracks in the GOM.


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Quoting tropicfreak:


yes don't jump to conclusions until you have read the blog.

I have read it. I am trying to prevent some people in here from jumping to conculsions about landfall. NO LLC
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Quoting gator23:

right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls.
My statement that you commented on was not "freaking out", it was just a tought.
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a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks
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Quoting gator23:

right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls.


BUT is the LLC developing? It certainly is.
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Quoting scott39:
See the word "IF"?

touche' scott. touche'
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Quoting Hurricanes101:



agreed, so many get way too ahead of themselves, I guess it is human nature to do that though


yes human nature, especially since we are all poised for a nightmare season that is not yet begun but due any minute...
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INV/93/L
MARK
13.3N/67.3W
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Last Night's 0z Euro...

Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern"


yes don't jump to conclusions until you have read the blog.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern"

right, it is. But we are freaking out over potential forecast tracks of something has has no LLC to track from. Be concerned, be alert, be on the look out. But until a LLC forms be not forecasting potential landfalls.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Cool map! Where did you find that one?


Link
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Quoting 69Viking:


Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL!


NOW THAT AIN'T even right....YOU know you all have the best of luck......you keep your luck. I really don't wanna invade what you all have going up there.....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting gator23:

Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC


Did you not read the Doc's article above? Nothing in it's way to prevent it from developing. "New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern"
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Quoting RJT185:
Oy. This system couldn't complete a cart-wheel despite all of the closet wish-caster in the planet. How can people be so hyped up when we're looking at computer models which don't have an LLC to lock onto? Yes this while setting is RIPE for a major or at least considerable storm to brew ... but there's a possibility the closed low might never materialize. Until the LLC forms and persists ... this is a wait & see system.



agreed, so many get way too ahead of themselves, I guess it is human nature to do that though
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Ascat shows a sharp tropical wave but no closed low.
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Quoting gator23:

Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC
See the word "IF"?
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Oy. This system couldn't complete a cart-wheel despite all of the closet wish-caster in the planet. How can people be so hyped up when we're looking at computer models which don't have an LLC to lock onto? Yes this while setting is RIPE for a major or at least considerable storm to brew ... but there's a possibility the closed low might never materialize. Until the LLC forms and persists ... this is a wait & see system.
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Quoting scott39:
I hate the term " take one for the team", because if anyone gets this its bad, but i will say the N Gulf Coast needs it the least!

Gets what Scott? We have nothing to get right now. No LLC
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Quoting Floodman:


Apples to oranges...BP is liable for all damages due to oil (or at least, should be). Storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, it doesn't matter that the water carried it or the wind whipped it up...BP isn't an insurance company and their liability is for OIL...they don't have a policy in place with exclusionary language...now, if the insurance carrier is required to pay something up front for damages directly due to the storm, there may be some lattitude as to the split, carrier to BP for payment


Good analogy. Let's just run with that thought.

If a hurricane & storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, then obviously you had wind damage, flooding and oil. When the water recedes, everything from that 6' line down to grade should have some amount of oil residue.

Carpet, sheetrock, floor tile, furniture all will need to be replaced anyway. Chances are that all windows will need to be replaced. Exterior siding will either need replaced or blasted, primed and painted. Even brick will need to be water blasted to clean.

BP can argue that the carpet, interior furnishings, etc... would need to be replaced anyway under flood insurance. Fed can argue that the damage wouldn't have been so bad without the oil residue. People without flood insurance (there are still those who don't) can argue that flooding caused part of their damage, but flooring & furniture might have been cleaned & salvageable if it weren't for the oil.

Normally, storm surge or wind is a cut & dried case. Either such-n-such was damaged and needs replaced or it is salvageable. Replacement is covered under flood insurance. However, the argument comes in that "part" of the reason it needs replacing is because it's covered in oil. It "might" have been salvageable if not for that.

That's where the lines will get blurred. Would your fence need to be replaced anyway due to surge & wind... or partially because it is coated with oil? If that's the case, why would your insurance company agree to pay for BP's portion of the damages? It sounds like a small question, but we're potentially talking about $500 Million or more in claims that could be filed against BP by insurance companies claiming partial liability on their part. The law would be on the insurance company's side due to partial responsibility by BP. Even if only 10% or 5% of the damages are from oil... that's a LOT of money insurance companies won't have to pay out. BP will not be pleased about paying for something that would have needed replaced anyway regardless of the oil.

In many different instances, from marshland cleanup to residential neighborhoods to businesses and public infrastructure... there will be claims galore if there is an oil sheen question. BP's liability in this is really a gray area.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


That wasn't directed at you, I think what you said made a lot of sense


Oh, ok.. Looks like the latest GFS develops the storm too far north and rams it into Florida, then out into the Atlantic, I don't really buy it, but now it develops the system.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
494. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:


Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL!


LOL.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L analog tracks:

Cool map! Where did you find that one?
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Still consistently popping up thunderstorms, that is one little part that will keep this thing alive.
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Quoting Patrap:
Way west of 90 West
I hate the term " take one for the team", because if anyone gets this its bad, but i will say the N Gulf Coast needs it the least!
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Quoting IKE:


Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K


Tampa is always pointing the threats our way! One of these days it's going to backfire and one of our storms as he likes to call them is going to make a right turn and enter Tampa Bay, they been lucky for a long time! Back at you Tampa LOL!
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Based on climo, heres what would happen if the BAMM suite was extrapolated.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!

I hate to be a calmcaster as I am excited about this too, but realisitcally these models mean nothing without a LLC circulation to track from. So we can throw out all ideas of where its going until that happens.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!


That's like telling a prisoner, don't worry about it, you're use to it.
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Quoting Levi32:
ASCAT missed the east side but there is obviously no defined circulation yet.



agreed,
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Quoting IKE:


Thanks...you pointed it right at me. You hate me that much? J/K
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


What the *($%$%^ &&$@^^ &!@%$ is your problem man? LOL..... Hope you're wrong dude
Quoting scott39:
Tampa dont draw that line again! LOL


YOU BOYS UP THERE ARE USE TO IT.....it just seemed like the logical place to send one since you are such PROS at this stufff.....LOL...SORRY!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting AllStar17:
LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.

no, see, they are talking about 91L still. 91L still has to get through shear! LOL
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Speaking of getting ahead of ourselves... the darn thing doesn't even have a defined LLC as of yet, and we are talking about a major hurricane in the GOMEX???
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Quoting AllStar17:
LOL.....TWC still says the wave has to get through shear. Obviously they have not looked at shear maps recently. God are they awful.


unless they call 5-15kt shear high.
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ASCAT missed the east side but there is obviously no defined circulation yet.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26659

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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