New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting leelee75k:
tampa, but what if you don't have a garage? would you then bring them inside the house?


Yes you would have to but, be careful....and never light it inside the house....which you know!
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Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


water water watter. cant get enough of it. not just potable water but water for flushing the toilet and watering animals. a digital converter box if your tv sets are older models for when cable and satellite goes out.
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Hello everybody!!!!!! we are here in South Florida any early concerns of what develops from 93L,coming this way?,the CMC model have the system making a sharp turn to the right crossing Cuba and coming to South Florida,any thoughts??,thanks!!
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622. unf97
Good afternoon everyone!

Looks like 93L will keep this blog perculating for the days to come.
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tampa, but what if you don't have a garage? would you then bring them inside the house?
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store important documents in the dishwasher, did it in '04 but remember to take them out before you do the dishes:)
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Link. Hurricane Alma.
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617. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC is a mess....takes 93L as a weak system into the Yucatan and tries to develop the wave behind it. Bringing the latter feature northwest while punching 93L into the Yucatan makes no sense.


I was just fixing to post that.

Nothing major on that run.
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12z CMC is a mess....takes 93L as a weak system into the Yucatan and tries to develop the wave behind it and curve it up towards Florida. Bringing the latter feature northwest while punching 93L into the Yucatan makes no sense.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
If you live anywhere along the Caribbean Sea, to the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic Coast from Florida to the Canadian Maritimes, including Bermuda, the Bahamas and the Azores... you need to remain alert for this potentially dangerous storm currently named 93L... LOL!!!!
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Quoting sporteguy03:

Audry?
Alma? 1966.
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Quoting StormW:


Something for snake bites.


Snakes won't bite OILY GREASY legs will they...JUST SAYIN
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Quoting Drakoen:


It is not that much weaker and the trough is in place which means erosion will occur. The GGEM shows the same thing as well.


Erosion yes or this would be going into the Yucatan....how much erosion though remains to be seen. We cannot make a call on that yet. We simply can't.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Big ol' trough on the GFS 12z

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First we have to get 93L to even develop at all before talking specifics about track and intensity. We still have 2 models to bring into the fold that aren't showing any development. I believe this will develop but without a defined center all specific track forecasts are worthless. All we have is a general idea that a weakness in the ridge will likely curve this northwest into the gulf, but where it goes in the gulf is up in the air.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting leelee75k:
you guys are awesome, thanks for thinking of things I didn't think of. clothespins and clothesline definitely going on my list as well as the rest of the suggestions. Unfortunately we don't have a generator and I don't think one is in our budget for this year.

tampaspin, how do you store extra propane tanks? I thought it was unsafe to store them indoors and worry about leaving them outdoors during the storm.

I'm prepared with all the basics, pretty much have everything that listed on your normal hurricane supply list, I was just looking for things that we forget or overlook.


Garage keep.......everything comes inside.
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Quoting sebastianflorida:
My Forecast:
1)There are 10,000 blog entries prior to 93L becoming a named storm.
2)1200 bloggers will be poofed prior to any landfall.
3)1200 posts will state a Cat 5 is comming to S. Florida.
4) Some People will start boarding up within 3 days.
5) 600 posts will call this a fish storm, even though unlikely.
6) Someone will claim 100 degree waters in the Gulf.
7) 500 posts will have graphics of prior storms, 10 will claim Andrew is comming.
8) Several bloggers will tell you they know it is comming to them because the racoons are behaving oddly.
9) Rapidly intensifying will be stated 300 times.
10) I have a cruise on the 24th, should I go.
11) I'm in Iceland, any chance the outerbands affect me.
12) This thing is moving Southwesr over the last 10 minutes, I know it, will be stated a few times.
Just my predictions.
5)

ROFLOL. That's hilarious. Especially about the raccoons. :)
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Quoting Levi32:


Notice how much weaker the trough is on the GFS.

Still 10 days out the trough could be flatter and the ridge could be stronger....it's not wise to make track forecasts yet. I'm just voicing the other side right now. West gulf should be watching this closely as well. I want to see what the 12z Euro shows.


It is not that much weaker and the trough is in place which means erosion will occur. The GGEM shows the same thing as well.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?


I'm not sure but with 93L, I would expect the unexpected...The potential is there for this to become a major hurricane once it gets into the NW Caribbean.
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Quoting StormW:


Something for snake bites.


Very irritated gator's being pushed out of their swampy home...
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Quoting lickitysplit:
Pretty disturbing video from the GOM


Yes. I hope BP goes out of business for this. With record profits last year it appears unlikely though.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?

Audry?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?


Major Hurricane Alex off the Carolinas in 2004.
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Quoting Funkadelic:


And what does this mean to you as far as track goes? I know it's hard because we have no defined LLC but we should within 36 hours.


That's right and we shouldn't be making track or intensity forecasts right now for the gulf. A stronger ridge and a weaker trough would mean a more WNW track towards the western gulf rather than the eastern gulf.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Plenty of time to watch. The canadian has the same idea as the gfs and euro with the ridge breaking down, we will see
Member Since: June 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Quoting RecordSeason:

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?


1) Definitely a good radio and several changes of batteries for it.

You are going to want to know what is going on after the power goes out, which is often several hours before the worst weather even hits. During and after a storm, you also want to know things like: Is there a levee breach? How close is River X to record flood stage and do you still have time to leave if needed? Is there another storm brewing? How to get help or unique emergency supplies as needed, etc.

2) Video camera to document your belongings and film the storm and aftermath.

3) Huge amounts of bottled water. Cannot over do it here really. I can tell you given the temps in the south central u.s. you'd want many, many gallons of water per person. If the power goes out for a day or two, you are going to be guzzling water like mad. If it's out longer, well, you get the picture.

4) Do not attempt to ride out a category 3 or greater storm in anything less than a post 1992 brick home with solid plywood sheeting in the walls(most contractors still do not put this), and with shutters. Tape is useless.
Also, Ice Ice and more Ice. After Charlie, it was no where to be found. And, a car charger for cell phones
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Audrey June 57

Formed June 25, 1957 (1957-06-25)
Dissipated June 29, 1957 (1957-06-30)
Highest
winds
145 mph (230 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)
Fatalities 416[1] direct
Damage $147 million (1957 USD)
$1.1 billion (2010 USD)
Areas
affected Eastern Texas, Louisiana, parts of the South Central United States

Hurricane Audrey was the first major hurricane of the 1957 Atlantic hurricane season. Audrey was the only storm to reach Category 4 status in June. A powerful hurricane, Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. It then affected the South Central United States as a powerful extratropical storm.

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I do not like the looks of 93L. This disturbance has everything going in it's favor and low shear combined with the VERY HIGH TCHP levels is what scares me the most. With that kind of TCHP theres a chance this thing can bomb out in the western caribbean quite easily.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I disagree


Notice how much weaker the trough is on the GFS.

Still 10 days out the trough could be flatter and the ridge could be stronger....it's not wise to make track forecasts yet. I'm just voicing the other side right now. West gulf should be watching this closely as well. I want to see what the 12z Euro shows.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS


That strong system the NOGAPS develops appears to come from this wave.



It makes it atleast a TD in 12 hours, and a Hurricane in 36. Something I don't buy.
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This will be a very interesting one to track because I could see things working out either way

We wont know until we go on in time whether the ridge or the trof become the main steering mechanism of this system
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7822
Outside of the storm that started with an "A" that we are all familiar with....was anyother storm that was the first named storm a Major Hurricane.......i don't know of any off the top of my head without doing research?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:



Oh so that is where the OIL SLICK is going?


I forgot to add my LOL on that comment
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
You guys want to know where 93L is going? Here is a map I created yesterday for you guys



*rolls eyes



Oh so that is where the OIL SLICK is going?
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Quoting Levi32:


But then we just had the hottest week of June on record in the southeast US. The ridge is big and strong and isn't going away. That trough is riding the northern periphery far to the north. It may not be able to recurve it that much. I'd like to see where the 12z ECMWF has it.


I disagree
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you guys are awesome, thanks for thinking of things I didn't think of. clothespins and clothesline definitely going on my list as well as the rest of the suggestions. Unfortunately we don't have a generator and I don't think one is in our budget for this year.

tampaspin, how do you store extra propane tanks? I thought it was unsafe to store them indoors and worry about leaving them outdoors during the storm.

I'm prepared with all the basics, pretty much have everything that listed on your normal hurricane supply list, I was just looking for things that we forget or overlook.
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Quoting Ivanhater:


The ensembles have a weaker solution which is why it does not feel the weakness, both the Euro and GFS show a trough breaking down the ridge and if the system is a strong one, it will feel it


True but few realize how monstrous this ridge really is, and the trough may not be staying there long enough to recurve it all the way to Alabama/Florida.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS


Wow I do not like what the NOGAPS does with the system behind 93L; it doesn't really do much with 93L itself though
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7822
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


If expecting a power outage of a few days and staying at home, we collect empty plastic gallon jugs, cut off the tops, fill with water and freeze. This gives us block ice that will help keep refrigerator cool, and doubles as containers to hold water as the ice begins to melt.
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579. FLHL2
Quoting leelee75k:
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?


Solar battery chargers/rechargeable batteries and battery operated fans to help withstand the miserable heat and humidity that follow the storm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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