New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting reedzone:


2 years after they're gone and you dems are still bashing them, give it up! lol


^5
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TAFB 48 hours, general wnw movement and still a low.


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NYT:

"The 2000s....ushered in an era of aggressive, government-backed offshore oil production. In May 2001, Bush, acting on recommendations from the oil industry, signed an executive order that required federal agencies to expedite permits for energy projects and paved the way for greater domestic oil exploration. "

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Quoting lickitysplit:


Maybe. But remember that it was Bush/Cheney who set up the permitting and control system under which BP was operating. Now we are seeing the consequences of having had an admin run by the oil companies.


2 years after they're gone and you dems are still bashing them, give it up! lol
Besides, this is a weather forum, not political forum, not the right place to bash politicians here.
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Nice banding features on visible:

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Quoting leelee75k:
tampa, but what if you don't have a garage? would you then bring them inside the house?
A hand held battery charger for your cell phone can be a life saver. Especially when everything within 40 miles of you has been wiped off the Earth.
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2010 Hurricane Preparation

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670. xcool
hot water & 10K WIND SHEAR .ALLGOOD FOR 93L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting WarEagle8:
Hurricane food -- pre-cooked vacuum packed bacon....it is easy to heat + is comfort food. I cooked scrambled eggs and bacon on the grill during Hurricane Francis in 2004....wore a poncho! Yummy!


mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......bacon.......
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Quoting hydrus:
Ya luk like da holi terrer.:)


Da Holly Terrier? What? Christmas for my pooch?!? :-)
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Question all....I live in South Florida and where I live the power lines are underground....How long is the power out for after a hurricane when you have lines that are underground....does the fact that they are underground help any?
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I love the dishwasher idea but I know I can't fit a propane tank in there, lol

great suggestions everyone I've read and noted them all and thank you again, it's so much easier to ask this type of question and get answers before the real craziness starts when a storm actually threatens and this blogs moves at lightning speed.
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The NHC dosent point the Floaters
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Quoting thegoldenstrand:


and to think Obama had Ken Salazar go to bat for BP so it could drill after Washington DC court ruled in April of 2009 that BP and others could not drill due to environmental safety concerns.

After our inept Government helps destroy the Gulf, Obama and the gang are pushing Nuclear, which will lead to something possibly as bad inland within a couple years if Court decisions and laws are not respected.


Maybe. But remember that it was Bush/Cheney who set up the permitting and control system under which BP was operating. Now we are seeing the consequences of having had an admin run by the oil companies.
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The anti-Post is 666
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Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. Watch the box between 13-14N and 67-68W. That's where the LLC would be most likely to form.


Ok, well I'm actually going out after the next TWO. I'm expecting 20-30%, no rush to jump ito orange code yet. This just started organizing, while wind shear is low, it will take time developing.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
This could be a situation of a cat 2 to 3 hurricane shooting up the easter gulf.


Worst position possible for the West Coast of Florida....the OIL WILL then come pouring onto the coast.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


TW --- are you in the P-cola area?


i work in santa rosa beach but live in fountain 40 mi north of panama city but during opal i worked for bay county and had to answer the phone after opal and my god some people were so totally wiped out. storm surge mostly i think. it was a dry hurricane for us. lots of trees fell and power down for 2 weeks in some places. i had to go to the mall parking lot and get pimento cheese sandwiches and ice from the red cross with a guardsman with an automatic rifle guarding. a very eery feeling! i thought i would die with no power for a week and the heat was merciless.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What do you all think...Code Orange in a few minutes?


Yellow.
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Quoting Floodman:


His backyard? MY BACKYARD!?!?!?!

LOL...making a popcorn and Dr. Pepper run...anyone need anything?
LOL, actually looks like MY backyard.
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Quoting StormW:


Cloud banding feature? Currently 10 KT of wind shear and... a developing anticyclonic outflow aloft?
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What do you all think...Code Orange in a few minutes?
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Hurricane food -- pre-cooked vacuum packed bacon....it is easy to heat + is comfort food. I cooked scrambled eggs and bacon on the grill during Hurricane Francis in 2004....wore a poncho! Yummy!
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Quoting reedzone:
NHC has the floater positioned on 93L, only problem is, it says 92L lol.. Looking closely at the visible, I see a small spin 14.2N 68.5W. I believe that is where the LLC might form in the next 24-40 hours.


No not quite. Watch the box between 13-14N and 67-68W. That's where the LLC would be most likely to form.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Look at me. Do I look upset to you?
Ya luk like da holi terrer.:)
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Quoting leelee75k:
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?

Having a piece of flint to start a fire to stay warm (and cook with if you don't have propane) is always a great thing. Also, if you need water right away and don't have any stored or you have lost your supplies for one reason or another, the tablets to sterilize water are good to have. Also to have a little backpack or something with all your supplies together in one place in case you have to evacuate all of a sudden is always useful as well.
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
Quoting leelee75k:
thanks boyznme!

Another great suggestion and one I didn't think of.


Has anyone said fans? If you live where hurricanes hit it means you live where it's good and hot well into possibly October so fans come in really handy at keeping you cool! That is if you have a generator to power them.
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Should we be looking at normal July tracks if 93L develops or are the tropics still in a June type track pattern?
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648. xcool
favorable pattern START NOW.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting hydrus:
Sorry. I thought he meant June storms.


Look at me. Do I look upset to you?
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Quoting leelee75k:
tampa, but what if you don't have a garage? would you then bring them inside the house?


did you see the dishwasher comment? I think it was patrap that said after katrina they found everything in a dishwasher completely spotless.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Allen - 1980..
Sorry. I thought he meant June storms.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I can't belive people are forgetting that andrew was the first named storm,and it was a cat'5


people arent forgetting, we just dont mention it. there are some storms that are better off not being mentioned due to the traumatic impact they have had on many of the bloggers here.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Allen - 1980..


Nope, more like Audrey... but only if it gets spinning soon or the disturbance behind it will be the one to watch.
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NHC has the floater positioned on 93L, only problem is, it says 92L lol.. Looking closely at the visible, I see a small spin 14.2N 68.5W. I believe that is where the LLC might form in the next 24-40 hours.
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Floater up.

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Link.... Audrey. 1957.
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Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks


Fill the bathtub. I did not think to do it with Wilma. Would have helped a lot.
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Quoting winter123:


Yes. I hope BP goes out of business for this. With record profits last year it appears unlikely though.


and to think Obama had Ken Salazar go to bat for BP so it could drill after Washington DC court ruled in April of 2009 that BP and others could not drill due to environmental safety concerns.

After our inept Government helps destroy the Gulf, Obama and the gang are pushing Nuclear, which will lead to something possibly as bad inland within a couple years if Court decisions and laws are not respected.
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Quoting hydrus:
Alma? 1966.


Allen - 1980..

Linkerooo....
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211728Z - 211830Z

WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL MO INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL IL.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
FROM NERN IA THROUGH CENTRAL IL/IND INTO SRN OH. REGIONAL
RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN AREA OF TSTMS TRACKING ENEWD
ACROSS SERN IA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT IA MCS AND
ASCENT WITH ATTENDANT MCV/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO CENTRAL MO WHERE STRONG
SURFACE HEATING IS WEAKENING SBCINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL IL MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED TO THE NNE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... WHICH EXTENDED FROM
SRN IL NWWD TO NERN MO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER
KM/ WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY RANGING FROM 1500-3000
J/KG FROM MO INTO SERN IA AND SRN/CENTRAL IL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH FURTHER INCREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 06/21/2010


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 39239450 39979322 40789185 40929050 40808979 40088926
38938969 38719117 38769382 39239450
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Quoting leelee75k:
tampa, but what if you don't have a garage? would you then bring them inside the house?


Yes you would have to but, be careful....and never light it inside the house....which you know!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.