New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Invaluable items after a hurricane if you have a small child: diapers and diaper rash meds. During Hurricane Katrina, we stocked up on everything, except the above mentioned. Sigh . . .
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Quoting Levi32:
Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.



Circulation, possibly at the mid-levels is out in front of the "L" on your map. Center could be further west a tad.
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wow really good divergence, no wonder it is holding those storms so nicely
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.


Looks like a mid-level vortex left over from collapsing convection. That is not likely where the LLC will form.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting RecordSeason:
TWC is a joke.

Carl Parker just said there's "very high wind shear" in the environment.

What the hell are they looking at? Shear is obviously lowest it's been in weeks, for the entire basin...



I keep these posted






Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
93L Caribbean - False Color RGB Loop
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Quoting TexasGulf:


Good analogy. Let's just run with that thought.

If a hurricane & storm surge comes in and leaves a 6' oil line on your house, then obviously you had wind damage, flooding and oil. When the water recedes, everything from that 6' line down to grade should have some amount of oil residue.

Carpet, sheetrock, floor tile, furniture all will need to be replaced anyway. Chances are that all windows will need to be replaced. Exterior siding will either need replaced or blasted, primed and painted. Even brick will need to be water blasted to clean.

BP can argue that the carpet, interior furnishings, etc... would need to be replaced anyway under flood insurance. Fed can argue that the damage wouldn't have been so bad without the oil residue. People without flood insurance (there are still those who don't) can argue that flooding caused part of their damage, but flooring & furniture might have been cleaned & salvageable if it weren't for the oil.

Normally, storm surge or wind is a cut & dried case. Either such-n-such was damaged and needs replaced or it is salvageable. Replacement is covered under flood insurance. However, the argument comes in that "part" of the reason it needs replacing is because it's covered in oil. It "might" have been salvageable if not for that.

That's where the lines will get blurred. Would your fence need to be replaced anyway due to surge & wind... or partially because it is coated with oil? If that's the case, why would your insurance company agree to pay for BP's portion of the damages? It sounds like a small question, but we're potentially talking about $500 Million or more in claims that could be filed against BP by insurance companies claiming partial liability on their part. The law would be on the insurance company's side due to partial responsibility by BP. Even if only 10% or 5% of the damages are from oil... that's a LOT of money insurance companies won't have to pay out. BP will not be pleased about paying for something that would have needed replaced anyway regardless of the oil.

In many different instances, from marshland cleanup to residential neighborhoods to businesses and public infrastructure... there will be claims galore if there is an oil sheen question. BP's liability in this is really a gray area.


Okay, now we're into what I do for a living...

Given flood damage along with wind AND oil:

If there is coverage for flood, the carrier would cover the damage (say a 6' interior flood line) as the carrier could not make an argument for subrogation or co-liability due to oil. The oil was there, but the water carried it in and the materials would have required replacement anyway. BP would be off the hook, as replacing the effected materials would mitigate the oil damage as well as the water damage. Water dmaaged drywall needs to be replaced, regardless of whether there is oil with it or not; the framing, on the other hand, would be a different question, though it would be highly likely that the framing could be cleaned of oil and that would be BPs responsibility (flooded framing typically requires drying and then light abrasion to clean up any biological contaminants).

If there is no flood coverage, BP is fully on the hook and the carrier off as the oil came in on an uncovered COL (cause of loss).

As most named hazard policies do not allow for the cleaning or repair of anything landscaping (other than trees fallen on structure or blocking access to the property) the contaminants in the yard deposited during the water receding would be completely on BP; the oil would not be there if it were not for BP and any argument to the contrary would be easily circumvented in this way:

The hurricane caused storm surge, which caused the flooding. In any other circumstance, other than the deposit of excess salt on the ground, the receding flood waters would leave the yard unscathed and not make the property hazardous for occupation. The oil, on the other hand, caused by the spill, which was caused by BP, makes the property unlivable until such time as the chemical pollutants can be removed, hence the clean up, the additional living expenses etc would all be the liability of BP.

Now, in the event of a wind only loss, BP's liability would be limited to decontaminantion of anything effected by the oil itself; it remains to be seen how far inland oil spray will be carried by hurricane force winds, but the concensus is a pretty fair distance...

BP is praying NOTHING makes it into the GOM this season; their liability will increase exponentionally if a storm were make landfall in any populated area adjacent to the spill, but their liability and outlay will be less for wind bourne oil as opposed to water bourne oil...the difference there is the difference between painting something as opposed to soaking that item in paint.
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Back later
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Good afternoon!
93L looks to be having good time!

Interestingly, surface winds in Trinidad were Westerly between 9 am and noon, including strong gusts in south Trinidad.
Westerlies are not common here, and have resulted today from the 'feeder band' of 93L overhead here this morning.

enter 'piarco' in the weather search box, top of this page for Trinidad weather.
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767. FLHL2
The latest CMC shows a double whammy for the gulf, including the smack to S Florida someone mentioned earlier @ 850mb vorticity in 144hrs. This is however, an early run, as w/o a closed low @surface... center fix, and direction of movement is preliminary.
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A hurricane's "hot towers" can increase its intensity by adding power to boost the storm's heat engine. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations of these phenomena using a very fine temporal resolution. They have combined this new simulation data with satellite observations to study the innerworking of the "hot towers" in never-before-seen detail.

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I have the surface lows center around 13.5N,67W IMO
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WE HAVE CODE ORANGE 30%>
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Quoting twhcracker:
here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.


In my experience, Wal-Mart is like that all the time. That's why I don't go there. LOL
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.


Yes, it is starting to wrap up and during the heat of the day which is never a good sign.
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Just because the favorable conditions are there, does not mean a system will MAX out its potential and take full advantage of it

I think claiming this will be a CAT 4 in the Gulf at this point is being too much of an alarmist
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
759. myway
Quoting kmanislander:


Precisely. See post 708


Where you live is also a big factor. If you are on the same grid as a hospital, emergency services building etc. you will come up quicker. A friend was out of power for 12 days after Wilma, however 2 blocks from him (on the hospital grid) had it back in 2 days.
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Quoting twhcracker:
here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.


Same with this blog too... people go berserk over an Invest. LOL
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Circulation tightening on visible.
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Station: TNCC (Hato Airport, Curacao, Netherlands Antilles)
WMO ident: 78988
Latitude: 12.20
Longitude: -68.97
Elevation: 67.00

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755. IKE
12Z GFDL
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93L is lookin too good.
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Hi fellow Wunderfolk- I saw this update on NASA hurricane feed today:
NO.ATLANTIC TROP.WAVES-
1.Along 19/20W so.of 14N;
2.Along 10N 47W to 5N 50W& to 2N 51W so.into Brazil
3. Wave along 62/63W south of 17N
4. Wave from 23N 73W through the Windward Passage to 17N 76W to 11N 77W.

I gather that #3 in the list is the much discussed 93L but what of the others... I am not used to following the NASA feed and they offer no interpretation. Anyone care to enlighten me as to what might become of the others? Is the fact that they are not listed as INVEST at NHC an indication they are inconsequential?
Forgive my ignorance... thanks!
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749. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
93L has reached medium shower curtain alert!!!!
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if you are out there lurking.

get ready to saddle up Cyclone Oz!

i am very much looking forward to your live webcam broadcasts.
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Geez, this blog is moving way too fast.

Levi, Drak, Storm, Kman:

Try zooming in on the NASA site on visible. Look at 14N 69W. Nice circulation tightening up there.
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One month without power!!!! I would have died!!! ugh!!!!!
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742. xcool
Stormchaser2007 .sit here & Tired.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DestinJeff:
"I can't beieve the NHC is being so CONSERVATIVE on 93L! What more do you need to expect a TC to develop? An invitation?"

SARCASM FLAG: ON
LOL! ...and I think I see a pinhole eye. ;-)

Seriously though, this does look like it could be trouble. It has my attention.
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Quoting kanc2001:


Its more dependent on the transmission lines and those are rarely underground. usually the underground lines are city centers and asthetically for neighborhoods.


Precisely. See post 708
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Quoting TampaSpin:


With the Sheer Forecast it should have went to 40%....How many believe right now that a TD will form in 48hrs........I DO!


Im with you Tampa.... I say probable depression by 5pm advisory tomorrow.
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good to see the 954 representing :) I'm in Sunrise.

btw I think this is the most I've ever posted on one of Dr M's blog in the 5+ years I've been a member here, lol, back to lurkdom for me.
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I think during Frances and Jeanne, we had no power for a total of 13 or 14 days.
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Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Howdy neighbor. Plantation here.


Hi! I live in Pembroke Pines....right next to the Everglades... :)
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93L/Alex gonna hit....Haiti and Bahamas
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here is some good hurricane advice: never ever never ever NEVER go to walmart within 24 hours of estimated hurricane arrival. unless you have a flak jacket and helmet and knee pads. and nothing you need will be there anyway. not one loaf of bread or battery or bottle of water in the whole place. and people will be acting like godzilla has walked ashore running wild eyed down the aisles knocking you out of the way. if you realize theres some little extra you need, go to a dollar general in your immediate area. do not, i repeat, do not go to any walmart when a storm is headed there. walmartians go berserk pre hurricane.
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in case anyone missed it, 93L is now orange, and at 30% :p
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.
Quoting Funkadelic:


Well to answer your question, it all depends on the strength of the storm. For example here in west palm beach during wilma, I was without power for 5-6 days. And underground lines do help with the restoring of power after a hurricane.


Its more dependent on the transmission lines and those are rarely underground. usually the underground lines are city centers and asthetically for neighborhoods.
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Quoting kanc2001:


yea, including the cell towers
Some of them were still standing after Charley. Some of our cell phones worked, others did not.
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728. xcool
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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