New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
ECMWF out at 72 hours and showing a more eastern solution once again


ECMWF should not be out yet, probably yesterdays run
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting StormW:


WOW! StormW, those temps are off charts almost! Kinda scary!
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I would love to be a fly on the wall at the BP offices when they are told there may be a storm in the Gulf next week. They need a few days to get ready for a storm and right now it doesn't seem they are doing anything about the oil. Where are the updates about what they are doing? Have not heard anything for a few days.That oil seem to be coming out faster.
Member Since: June 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
re: 802

thats not encouraging either
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Really hoping that it doesn't merge with what is to the east.
Photobucket
"Ex-92l" is moving slowly w, 93l is moving moderately w, and the itcz feature to it's east is moving quickly w. They are all going to pile up. Time for me to do something math to see when that will happen?
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It's interesting to click the upper level wind tab on the SSD loops and all of the barbs point away from the center, showing excellent ventilation of the center and most importantly, no shear.

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Re: 801

Thats not encouraging.
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Hurricane Katrina photo of oil spill in Chalmette, Louisiana, showing oil tanks & streets covered with oil slick.



Oil and Hurricanes aint nuthing new for some.


Katrina-hit town deals with oil spill, storm worries

Still affected by Hurricane Katrina, Chalmette, La., now contends with the oil spill and a new hurricane season.


By LESLEY CLARK
lclark@MiamiHerald.com

CHALMETTE, La., -- Hurricane Katrina left several feet of water, a tangle of water moccasins, raw crude from a busted refinery tank and two feet of thick, black marsh sludge in Curtis Nunez's house in St. Bernard's Parish.

Five years later, with hurricane season opening Tuesday, Nunez is worried about a different kind of muck. Fifty miles to the south, the ruined Deepwater Horizon drilling rig continues to unleash a torrent of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, imperiling an area that still hasn't fully recovered from Katrina, which put much of Chalmette, just east of New Orleans, under water for weeks.

Many residents moved into FEMA trailers; many have never returned; and streets are dotted with concrete pads that once held houses. The Chalmette Battlefield, site of the Battle of New Orleans in 1815, was severely damaged and its visitors center was destroyed.

``It makes you wonder,'' said Nunez, 51, who bulldozed his house and moved to higher ground. ``After Katrina we wondered, `Is there even going to be a parish to come back to?' ''

It took Donna Barone and her husband eight months to reopen their Chalmette Hardware store.

``It was tough,'' Barone said, noting that without homes or jobs, most of her employees left town. ``We gutted houses for months, just to make some money. A lot of people are still not back.''

Though the worst memories of Katrina -- the eight feet of water that covered the hardware store and destroyed the inventory -- are fading, Barone said the community is now distracted by the oil spill.

``I don't think anyone is thinking about hurricane season with all this other stuff going on,'' she said. ``And now we have to worry, if a hurricane does come, what kind of devastation do you have with all this oil in the water?''

Nunez said he's not surprised by BP's and the government's response.

``I didn't expect no more,'' he said. ``I was here for Katrina. I didn't expect them to run down here and save us. The first people we saw after Katrina in town was the Canadians.''

There's little trust here in either the oil company or the federal government. Mechanic Dud Alphonso, 42, said he has his own hurricane plan.

``Get the hell out of here,'' he said Sunday.

``I was here for Katrina, I swam in oil, I had four feet of mud in my house and they told me I could still live there,'' Alphonso said. ``They told us troops would come and help. Yeah.''

Like most of coastal Louisiana, Chalmette is very familiar with oil: After Katrina, a refinery tank burst, flooding neighborhoods. The EPA estimated in 2006 that more than 1,800 homes in the area had been ``oiled.'' There are still billboards in Chalmette that ask ``has the oil spill hurt your business?''

``First we had the waters from Katrina washing away homes, then the oil tank broke, then there were the snakes,'' said Nunez, a district chief at the St. Bernard Parish Fire Department. ``What more can they do?''

He said Louisianans would cope, even as the oil spill threatens to lay waste to a way of life on the coast. ``After you get hit with something like Katrina, it's like, keep pitching it, we'll knock it out of the park,'' Nunez said. ``We'll do our best.''
The Miami Herald
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
looks like the low is taking off
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Have a question for anyone on this blog who can answer:
Is the center of the circulation, or what will be the LLC, a bit north from where the NHC has 93L?
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Wow, doesn't do anything with it. Strange considering in the hour I was away from the satellite images, the thing got significantly better looking.


Same here. I've been gone a little more than an hour and it looks better than it was this morning.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I have the surface lows center around 13.5N,67W IMO




drak,levi,storm:can you confirm my analysis of the surface low location???
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Quoting Floodman:


Okay, now we're into what I do for a living...


Thanks for that great explanation Floodman. I was wondering about this very thing happening if a hurricane crosses the oil spill.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Wow, doesn't do anything with it. Strange considering in the hour I was away from the satellite images, the thing got significantly better looking.


The GFDL will be unlikely to show a feedback if there is not even a hint of a surface circulation, which there isn't in the 12z data. The GFDL can be initialized on any pair of coordinates but if the current data input into the model doesn't support feedback of a low pressure center then it won't do it. That's why models are unreliable until we have a developed system.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
ECMWF out at 72 hours and showing a more eastern solution once again
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, now we're into what I do for a living...

Given flood damage along with wind AND oil:

If there is coverage for flood, the carrier would cover the damage (say a 6' interior flood line) as the carrier could not make an argument for subrogation or co-liability due to oil. The oil was there, but the water carried it in and the materials would have required replacement anyway. BP would be off the hook, as replacing the effected materials would mitigate the oil damage as well as the water damage. Water dmaaged drywall needs to be replaced, regardless of whether there is oil with it or not; the framing, on the other hand, would be a different question, though it would be highly likely that the framing could be cleaned of oil and that would be BPs responsibility (flooded framing typically requires drying and then light abrasion to clean up any biological contaminants).

If there is no flood coverage, BP is fully on the hook and the carrier off as the oil came in on an uncovered COL (cause of loss).

As most named hazard policies do not allow for the cleaning or repair of anything landscaping (other than trees fallen on structure or blocking access to the property) the contaminants in the yard deposited during the water receding would be completely on BP; the oil would not be there if it were not for BP and any argument to the contrary would be easilty circumvented in this way:

The hurricane caused storm surge, which caused the flooding. In any other circumastance, other than the deposit of excess salt on the ground, the receding flood waters would leave the yard unscathed and not make the property hazardous for occupation. The oil, on the other hand, caused by the spill, which was caused by BP, makes the property unlivable until suich time as the chemical pollutants can be removed, hence the clean up, the additionsal living expenses etc would all be the liability of BP.

Now, in the event of a wind only loss, BP's liability would be limited to decontaminantion of anything effected by the oil itself; it remains to be seen how far inland oil spray will be carried by hurricane force wonds, but the concensus is a pretty fair distance...

BP is praying NOTHING makes it into the GOM this season; their liability will increase exponentionally if a storm were make landfall in any populated area adjacent to the spill, but their liability and outlay will be less for wind bourne oil as opposed to water bourne oil...the difference there is the difference between painting something as ooposed to soaking that item in paint.

I do contract disaster responding for FEMA since Ivan and have been in many sewer filled homes. Oil filled will be a new experience.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
how soon until the 12Z ECMWF is available?


230-3pm
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Levi32:


Looks like a mid-level vortex left over from collapsing convection. That is not likely where the LLC will form.


Actually, now that I've looked closer, I see at least 2 small vorts spinning away from the main low.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Wow, doesn't do anything with it. Strange considering in the hour I was away from the satellite images, the thing got significantly better looking.


The GFDL has problems with systems that have no LLC.
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People, QUIT watching TWC, maybe when their viewership drops they might get the point that they are garbage now...
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Climo tracks for 93L:
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Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
Repost
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Quoting IKE:
12Z GFDL


I see nothing.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z GFDL
Wow, doesn't do anything with it. Strange considering in the hour I was away from the satellite images, the thing got significantly better looking.
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Quoting Levi32:


Looks like a mid-level vortex left over from collapsing convection. That is not likely where the LLC will form.


I figured that was the case...That's why I tried to get your attention. Satellite presentation is improving rapidly and the banding features are beautiful to look at on visible.
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DMIN, and then DMAX tonight..

organization throughout the day, strengthening throughout the night
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5 year lurker here finially decided to join. Thanks for a your awesome insight.
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793. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.


Are they flying in tomorrow? I thought it was Wednesday.
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Quoting Ameister12:

It's not worth watching TWC anymore.


You know they'll have their satellite trucks ready to roll as soon as they know where one is going. Cantore is probably lurking in here right now, so that he knows what is going on LOL
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.


HH are not scheduled to be there til Wednesday
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
There may be a flight into 93L on 6/23 16 N and 77W. How much warmer is the oil than the sea surface?? No one seems to know?? Oil front property for all along the GCoast!!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
Hello everybody!! it seems that we are going to have a very busy!! season.Just wondering if this system once it develop and I believe it will be soon looking at the satellite presentation.The CMC model shows the system making a right turn and coming to South Florida,also couple of other models shows this future storm coming to our area here in South Florida,any comments or thoughts about this??.Thanks
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93L blog,all are welcome!!
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I think TD1 will be designated tomorrow afternoon while the HH's are in there.
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,
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
Quoting Levi32:
Beginning to get some banding, indicating that the low is developing.



That is exactly where the low is
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Quoting RecordSeason:
TWC is a joke.

Carl Parker just said there's "very high wind shear" in the environment.

What the hell are they looking at? Shear is obviously lowest it's been in weeks, for the entire basin...

It's not worth watching TWC anymore.
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Invaluable items after a hurricane if you have a small child: diapers and diaper rash meds. During Hurricane Katrina, we stocked up on everything, except the above mentioned. Sigh . . .
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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