New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.



Not sure that is even 93L. Should wait for the graphics to come out on raleighwx
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30814
Quoting Patrap:
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



It looks pretty organised towards the East of the storm but the west is awful - needs to sort that out before it attempts to become a TD.
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burning sea turtles alive.

You gotta love these guys.
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Quoting lavinia:


Thanks for that great explanation Floodman. I was wondering about this very thing happening if a hurricane crosses the oil spill.


You're welcome, lavinia...now, all that I said is dependent upon some smart lawyer type (hmmm, NOLA LAwyer?)finding a loophole, though most courts will not allow you to collect twice on the same loss unless it is the form of damages due to proven mailce or lack of good faith on the part of one party or another, but remember: you have responsibilities too; most policies REQUIRE mitigation against further dmages, where possible...after Katrina most carriers stopped even fighting about mitigation clauses (with that many lawsuits, most jurisdictions were requiring mediation and very few, if any, suits were tried in a courtroom
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:

What causes this strange cloud pattern south of the Cape Verdes? Looks like a dozen mini-canes!


low pressure system engulfed in dry air and SAL
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Lol @ the HWRF...takes it into Hispaniola.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.



As consistent as the ECMWF has been with development, it has been so inconsistent with track

Tells me we have a complex steering pattern and that each track should be taken with a grain of salt at this time
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Compare:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSST/FCST_SST20050615_IASSST_20050615.001.gif

to:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSST/FCST_SST20100616_IASSST_20100616.001.gif

All URLs are OK(I checked this)
What are your opinions wunderbloggers???
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Quoting Patrap:
If 93L can navigate well..and take advantage of that TCHP along the Way..,

The Intensity Guidance will be the Graph to watch thru time.




It's been going up up up.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
**what you are about to read is FAKE, there is no link. No source. I am making it up as a fictional account of what I expect. Please do not repost as gospel. **

"Due do the potential of a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf Of Mexico, and its impacts on Deepwater Horizon incident site, operations there will be halted there immediately. The safety of the crews working the incident is of utmost importance and we must take this action to allow sufficient time to ready the scene for the approaching storm."

- BP News Release

** AGAIN ... what you just read is NOT REAL. It is fiction, and just an idea of what we might see come from BP. Please do not copy and paste it as you Facebook status or anything.**


Why is everyone blaming this on BP when it wasn't just them.
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What causes this strange cloud pattern south of the Cape Verdes? Looks like a dozen mini-canes!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129786
Quoting Patrap:
93L

1715 UTC VIZ



Looking healthier and healthier by the minute, I can almost spot an "eye"
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12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.

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2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129786
I doubt it also but point is, it is the 12z. You can see it early there. :-)
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GFDL shows nada, and usually its a bit bold with intensity.

Link
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93L

1715 UTC VIZ

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129786

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Link

12z Initialized 6/21
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Link


interesting but I doubt it will go that far east
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
\

I think you will see a Murphy Oil situation if there is severe contamination due to oil. BP will be buying people's homes outright. As alluded above, the SFIP is not going to cover your yard, or anything basically outside of your home. Also, monitoring and testing of and for pollutants is specifically excluded under Article V(F) of the SFIP.

Another interesting thing to ponder is will your H/O carrier come through if a storm picks up oil filled water, and then rains it all over your house?

It is a real quandry and while BP can hope nothing comes through, that is a pipe dream. The question is not "if," it is "when." My guess is late next week we are going to know the answer to that question.

This IS the year of the "Oilcane." No way to avoid it.

Mike


Mike,. the carrier will cover what they contracted to cover in the policy, but they will be looking ofr ways to mitigate their losses; I really don;t see anything they can do in the event of a flood loss: they covered flood and the policies are relatively explicit in what they will or will not cover. If it's decided that hazmat cert is required to repair flood damaged "oiled" risks, then BP will be on the hook for the handling and removal of the contaminated debris and I can see some serious battles going on over that...
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Quoting BenBIogger:




I change my forecast ;-) because of the Steering Layers
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If 93L can navigate well..and take advantage of that TCHP along the Way..,

The Intensity Guidance will be the Graph to watch thru time.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129786
Quoting weathersp:
EMCWF 12z Inital (00 hrs), 1010mb low in 93L's area.


Yesterdays Run.
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Quoting weathersp:
EMCWF 12z Inital (00 hrs), 1010mb low in 93L's area.


Sundays run.
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RGB flash of the Caribbean starting to look interesting out of NHC.
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Link
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849. xcool


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Quoting weathersp:
EMCWF 12z Inital (00 hrs), 1010mb low in 93L's area.


nope that is yesterdays, notice it says Sunday
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Quoting stillwaiting:




drak,levi,storm:can you confirm my analysis of the surface low location???


there is no surface low
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Other apres-storm items you may not have considered and/or you may not see listed on that little supermarket handout. (For the record, I've been through, among others, Andrew, Katrina, and Wilma):

--Heavy boots (walking across a yard full of nail-studded debris in a pair of shower sandals or Nikes won't cut it);
--Cash from the ATM (hard to get to after the storm, but usually what you'll need when purchasing $20 bags of ice and $30 gallons of gas from some guy in a truck with out of state plates).
--An up-to-date GPS (you think you know your neighborhood now, but it's easy to get lost when every landmark--every tree, every sign, every building--is mangled or gone).
--Long, heavy-duty extension cords (after Andrew, one side of our street had power five full days before the other; long after gasoline for our generators ran out, we who were prepared had limited juice).
--A tire patching kit (the above-mentioned nails that can wreak havoc on your Nikes do the same to your Goodyear radials; a good-quality plugging kit may prove invaluable).

And so on, and so forth...
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Quoting RecordSeason:
818:

At the moment it's too ill defined, it's all going to be about where the bands come together, and most of it is open bands, albeit very, very broad bands. Extremely broad and heavy rain bands, based on PR radar.

The last time I saw a rain band that thick on Radar was when hurricane Ike passed south of Louisiana, and that is at least the SECOND band from the main wave..
The bands will thicken and progress inward more as the low deepens. There isn't much towards the center just yet.
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843. xcool
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Quoting germemiguel:
93L/Alex gonna hit....Haiti and Bahamas


Quoting germemiguel:
93L/Alex gonna hit Cayman Island, East Yucatan, West Cuba and Texas......


Make up your mind!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I just hit the "refresh" button on nice visible loop of 93L, ending at 9:35 this morning, that I forgot I was running.....Quite a difference since this morning on the visible....Really starting to "fan out" for lack of a better word.


Better words could be nice banding structure.
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Quoting Ameister12:

It's not worth watching TWC anymore.


I wish I could watch it just to mock at the over stupidness shown by them.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
"Ex-92l" is moving slowly w, 93l is moving moderately w, and the itcz feature to it's east is moving quickly w. They are all going to pile up. Time for me to do something math to see when that will happen?

Yeah, that sounds like a good idea. :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:
No worries with dry air, as Dr M stated as well in his entry.
The plume of moisture lifted north out of the itcz behind 92l is helping 93l significantly.

As someone said a few weeks back on the blog... 92l's purpose wasn't to develop, but to moisten the environment for the next wave to come along.
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Quoting RuBRNded:

I do contract disaster responding for FEMA since Ivan and have been in many sewer filled homes. Oil filled will be a new experience.


I don't envy you, man...we adjusters are pretty evenly mistrusted and have a pretty difficult job; you guys are roundly despised and have the pretty much the same job
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Hurricane Katrina photo of oil spill in Chalmette, Louisiana, showing oil tanks & streets covered with oil slick.



Oil and Hurricanes aint nuthing new for some.


Katrina-hit town deals with oil spill, storm worries

Still affected by Hurricane Katrina, Chalmette, La., now contends with the oil spill and a new hurricane season.


By LESLEY CLARK
lclark@MiamiHerald.com

CHALMETTE, La., -- Hurricane Katrina left several feet of water, a tangle of water moccasins, raw crude from a busted refinery tank and two feet of thick, black marsh sludge in Curtis Nunez's house in St. Bernard's Parish.

Five years later, with hurricane season opening Tuesday, Nunez is worried about a different kind of muck. Fifty miles to the south, the ruined Deepwater Horizon drilling rig continues to unleash a torrent of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, imperiling an area that still hasn't fully recovered from Katrina, which put much of Chalmette, just east of New Orleans, under water for weeks.

Many residents moved into FEMA trailers; many have never returned; and streets are dotted with concrete pads that once held houses. The Chalmette Battlefield, site of the Battle of New Orleans in 1815, was severely damaged and its visitors center was destroyed.

``It makes you wonder,'' said Nunez, 51, who bulldozed his house and moved to higher ground. ``After Katrina we wondered, `Is there even going to be a parish to come back to?' ''

It took Donna Barone and her husband eight months to reopen their Chalmette Hardware store.

``It was tough,'' Barone said, noting that without homes or jobs, most of her employees left town. ``We gutted houses for months, just to make some money. A lot of people are still not back.''

Though the worst memories of Katrina -- the eight feet of water that covered the hardware store and destroyed the inventory -- are fading, Barone said the community is now distracted by the oil spill.

``I don't think anyone is thinking about hurricane season with all this other stuff going on,'' she said. ``And now we have to worry, if a hurricane does come, what kind of devastation do you have with all this oil in the water?''

Nunez said he's not surprised by BP's and the government's response.

``I didn't expect no more,'' he said. ``I was here for Katrina. I didn't expect them to run down here and save us. The first people we saw after Katrina in town was the Canadians.''

There's little trust here in either the oil company or the federal government. Mechanic Dud Alphonso, 42, said he has his own hurricane plan.

``Get the hell out of here,'' he said Sunday.

``I was here for Katrina, I swam in oil, I had four feet of mud in my house and they told me I could still live there,'' Alphonso said. ``They told us troops would come and help. Yeah.''

Like most of coastal Louisiana, Chalmette is very familiar with oil: After Katrina, a refinery tank burst, flooding neighborhoods. The EPA estimated in 2006 that more than 1,800 homes in the area had been ``oiled.'' There are still billboards in Chalmette that ask ``has the oil spill hurt your business?''

``First we had the waters from Katrina washing away homes, then the oil tank broke, then there were the snakes,'' said Nunez, a district chief at the St. Bernard Parish Fire Department. ``What more can they do?''

He said Louisianans would cope, even as the oil spill threatens to lay waste to a way of life on the coast. ``After you get hit with something like Katrina, it's like, keep pitching it, we'll knock it out of the park,'' Nunez said. ``We'll do our best.''
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129786
No, it is not yesturdays run. it is the start of todays 12z run. you can find it on the e-wall through 72 hours so far.
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Really hoping that it doesn't merge with what is to the east.
Photobucket


Ex-92L is actually farther west...SW of Jamaica. The two tropical waves won't run into each other, but 92L is slowing down, lowering the pressures, bringing in moisture, and piling up air in the western Caribbean, paving the way for 93L to move in. Merging of two tropical waves doesn't always mean worse....merging of two surface-based tropical systems more often than not messes the disturbance up.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
I just hit the "refresh" button on nice visible loop of 93L, ending at 9:35 this morning, that I forgot I was running.....Quite a difference since this morning on the visible....Really starting to "fan out" for lack of a better word.
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Quoting Floodman:


Okay, now we're into what I do for a living...

Given flood damage along with wind AND oil:

If there is coverage for flood, the carrier would cover the damage (say a 6' interior flood line) as the carrier could not make an argument for subrogation or co-liability due to oil. The oil was there, but the water carried it in and the materials would have required replacement anyway. BP would be off the hook, as replacing the effected materials would mitigate the oil damage as well as the water damage. Water dmaaged drywall needs to be replaced, regardless of whether there is oil with it or not; the framing, on the other hand, would be a different question, though it would be highly likely that the framing could be cleaned of oil and that would be BPs responsibility (flooded framing typically requires drying and then light abrasion to clean up any biological contaminants).

If there is no flood coverage, BP is fully on the hook and the carrier off as the oil came in on an uncovered COL (cause of loss).

As most named hazard policies do not allow for the cleaning or repair of anything landscaping (other than trees fallen on structure or blocking access to the property) the contaminants in the yard deposited during the water receding would be completely on BP; the oil would not be there if it were not for BP and any argument to the contrary would be easilty circumvented in this way:

The hurricane caused storm surge, which caused the flooding. In any other circumastance, other than the deposit of excess salt on the ground, the receding flood waters would leave the yard unscathed and not make the property hazardous for occupation. The oil, on the other hand, caused by the spill, which was caused by BP, makes the property unlivable until suich time as the chemical pollutants can be removed, hence the clean up, the additionsal living expenses etc would all be the liability of BP.

Now, in the event of a wind only loss, BP's liability would be limited to decontaminantion of anything effected by the oil itself; it remains to be seen how far inland oil spray will be carried by hurricane force wonds, but the concensus is a pretty fair distance...

BP is praying NOTHING makes it into the GOM this season; their liability will increase exponentionally if a storm were make landfall in any populated area adjacent to the spill, but their liability and outlay will be less for wind bourne oil as opposed to water bourne oil...the difference there is the difference between painting something as ooposed to soaking that item in paint.
\

I think you will see a Murphy Oil situation if there is severe contamination due to oil. BP will be buying people's homes outright. As alluded above, the SFIP is not going to cover your yard, or anything basically outside of your home. Also, monitoring and testing of and for pollutants is specifically excluded under Article V(F) of the SFIP.

Another interesting thing to ponder is will your H/O carrier come through if a storm picks up oil filled water, and then rains it all over your house?

It is a real quandry and while BP can hope nothing comes through, that is a pipe dream. The question is not "if," it is "when." My guess is late next week we are going to know the answer to that question.

This IS the year of the "Oilcane." No way to avoid it.

Mike
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830. unf97
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody!! it seems that we are going to have a very busy!! season.Just wondering if this system once it develop and I believe it will be soon looking at the satellite presentation.The CMC model shows the system making a right turn and coming to South Florida,also couple of other models shows this future storm coming to our area here in South Florida,any comments or thoughts about this??.Thanks


It is too soon to determine any of this. First, give 93L time to develop and get initialized by the later model runs. There are several variables to take into account with timing and also how the upper level steering pattern will evolve in the coming days. But, definitely, everyone in the Central and Western Carribean Sea, and interests all along the U.S. Gulf Coast and SE Atlantic seaboard all should stay vigilant in the coming days on the future of 93L .
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Well NHC coded it orange now, what did I tell you.
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Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
ECMWF out at 72 hours and showing a more eastern solution once again


ECMWF should not be out yet, probably yesterdays run
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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