New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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144 hours; next Sunday it finally develops 93L

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Quoting NOLALawyer:


Of course, any "direct loss by or from flood" will be covered under the SFIP. It really won't matter if the water contains oil in terms of flood loss. But, the SFIP is not going to pay for any kind of hazardous material/contamination monitoring, etc. FEMA is going to have to issue a bulletin when this becomes an issue. We will see what comes down. As far as H/O carriers, I fully expect them to weasel as much as possible. It really has the potential to be one huge, disgusting mess.

Mike


The HO carriers are pretty much hosed too; they won't be able to pull away from anything that cannot be proven...the ones to look out for are the really big guys (I won't name names, but Province Homestead and Entire Province will be looking to weasel a BUNCH); they have a tendency to make peicemeal decisions due to their solvency that smaller, less affluent companies can't. I know policy, I know damage and I know DOI regs for most every state in the Union and I know where they meet and I have been subpoenaed a number of times. From a field perspective, we want to make sure we cover everything that was damaged...what happens after that report gets to your carrier is another question entirely; again, the little guys want to pay what they owe...but I digress...

just rest assured that there will be some very interesting court cases after this year, if we get a landfall or two on the northern Gulf Coast
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5 days, no development of 93L on this run as of yet

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By The Associated Press | AP

Published: June 21, 2010

Related Links

Complete Oil Spill coverage
NEW ORLEANS, La. - The Coast Guard says it seized 30,000 pounds of brown shrimp after being tipped that boats were trawling an area closed because of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The Lady Monica and La Borrachita were boarded Sunday about 35 nautical miles south of Terrebonne Bay.

The Coast Guard says La Borrachita held about 20,000 pounds of shrimp and the Lady Monica about 10,000 pounds. It was all dumped back into the water, and both vessels were given written violation notices.

An online National Marine Fisheries Service database shows both boats are home-ported in Brownsville, Texas, but registered to different owners.

A Florida-based shrimper was cited June 13 in another closed area




SAD SAD SAD
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Can you link me to the satellite you're using to see this please? Thanks in advance.


To zoom in, click on the area where 93L is located. Make sure you have the settings adjusted to animation when you zoom in on it. Otherwise, it'll just be an image.

Link
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922. xcool
Tazmanian/LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Drak is right, take a look at this version; 93L is south of Jamaica, the wave behind it is what goes towards Hispanoila


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Quoting Floodman:


You're welcome, lavinia...now, all that I said is dependent upon some smart lawyer type (hmmm, NOLA LAwyer?)finding a loophole, though most courts will not allow you to collect twice on the same loss unless it is the form of damages due to proven mailce or lack of good faith on the part of one party or another, but remember: you have responsibilities too; most policies REQUIRE mitigation against further dmages, where possible...after Katrina most carriers stopped even fighting about mitigation clauses (with that many lawsuits, most jurisdictions were requiring mediation and very few, if any, suits were tried in a courtroom


Nope, Floodman...think Dark Side. :-D
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900 commets in 1hr???
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We may see 94L within the next two days.
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look at 93L go and go
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I have a friend that works for an insurance company and his sole job is to find a way to get his company out of paying a claim. If a storm gets in the gulf, he might be a busy guy.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
93L starting to bend the flow out in front of it (to the west). Look at the visible and notice the low clouds beginning to wrap around from the north heading south.
Can you link me to the satellite you're using to see this please? Thanks in advance.
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913. xcool
ONLY model I'M LOOK AT Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
... I wouldn't "lol" that idea just yet... It is in fact heading that direction right now...


It's currently moving west-northwest, in the general direction of Jamaica. I doubt the island of Hispanola will see much from this apart from heavy rains. To cross that island, it would have to move north-westward, which seems unlikely at this point.
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www.stormjunkie.com/xtreme/SameShipDifferentBay.mp3


I Posted this earlier. I was hoping for some feedback. This is an original song I wrote and recorded with my band last week. Subject matter is the Oilspill and the state of things. Runs 3 mins. Thanx in advnce.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Why is everyone blaming this on BP when it wasn't just them.


You are certainly right. OSHA and other gov agencies here in the states turned a blind eye on some oil companies and those companies such as BP would be happy to ablidge. When you start teaching the kid who lived by no rules rules they don't know what these rules are.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Hey everyone. Reporting from Panama City Beach, FL. Water is absolutely gorgeous. It's nice and warm too, like bath water. But not a speck of oil where we're at. Not even any June grass or any seaweed in the water. Pristine!
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
... I wouldn't "lol" that idea just yet... It is in fact heading that direction right now...




show me a steering map that show 93L moving NNW,not gonna happen in the next 48hrs IMO,WNW thru 48hrs ending up about 100-150 miles SE of jamaica..
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Two Dat..


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..................
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905. xcool
Stormchaser2007 "I agree
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
904. JRRP
CMC develops the wave near antilles
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Because it kind of is their fault...and they suck.


BWWWWHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!!! Hilarious. And yes.."kind of"....
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Quoting GetReal:
Conditions at 42059 as of
(2:50 pm ADT)


Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
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Ugh...models seem pretty clueless. A track into Hati would kill it and a track through the western Caribbean would make it one of the strongest June storms on record.

Its 2010 and the models are still pretty poor.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I wish I could watch it just to mock at the over stupidness shown by them.


well, i confess to hoping to take a good enough pic or video to be "weather warrior" someday.
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Conditions at 42059 as of
(2:50 pm ADT)


Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:



But what about SSTs?


the SST's are about the same yes, but there are so many more factors that allowed 2005 to explode, it just wont be the same
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93L starting to bend the flow out in front of it (to the west). Look at the visible and notice the low clouds beginning to wrap around from the north heading south.
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Quoting Floodman:


Mike,. the carrier will cover what they contracted to cover in the policy, but they will be looking ofr ways to mitigate their losses; I really don;t see anything they can do in the event of a flood loss: they covered flood and the policies are relatively explicit in what they will or will not cover. If it's decided that hazmat cert is required to repair flood damaged "oiled" risks, then BP will be on the hook for the handling and removal of the contaminated debris and I can see some serious battles going on over that...


Of course, any "direct loss by or from flood" will be covered under the SFIP. It really won't matter if the water contains oil in terms of flood loss. But, the SFIP is not going to pay for any kind of hazardous material/contamination monitoring, etc. FEMA is going to have to issue a bulletin when this becomes an issue. We will see what comes down. As far as H/O carriers, I fully expect them to weasel as much as possible. It really has the potential to be one huge, disgusting mess.

Mike
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895. xcool
MODELS All over the place'
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


stop comparing the two years, for gods sake... this year will be nothing like 2005



But what about SSTs?
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


It looks pretty organised towards the East of the storm but the west is awful - needs to sort that out before it attempts to become a TD.


Agreed. east looks good with continous t'storms flaring up with bands but the west side needs more t'storm action and banding
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Quoting germemiguel:


I change my forecast ;-) because of the Steering Layers


Riiiiiight. Thats why
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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1310 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100621 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 67.2W 13.7N 69.3W 14.4N 71.6W 15.2N 73.9W
BAMD 13.0N 67.2W 13.8N 69.3W 14.5N 71.5W 15.3N 73.7W
BAMM 13.0N 67.2W 13.6N 69.4W 14.3N 71.9W 15.1N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 67.2W 14.0N 69.6W 15.2N 72.2W 16.2N 74.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1200 100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 76.1W 16.8N 80.1W 17.8N 83.3W 19.1N 85.7W
BAMD 15.9N 75.7W 16.7N 78.9W 17.6N 81.7W 18.6N 84.1W
BAMM 15.7N 76.6W 16.6N 80.3W 17.4N 83.1W 18.5N 85.4W
LBAR 16.9N 77.1W 18.0N 81.1W 19.7N 84.0W 22.2N 85.5W
SHIP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 70KTS 80KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 67.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN




omg
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120

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Quoting Levi32:
Lol @ the HWRF...takes it into Hispaniola.
... I wouldn't "lol" that idea just yet... It is in fact heading that direction right now...
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888. JRRP
-
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Why is everyone blaming this on BP when it wasn't just them.


Because it kind of is their fault...and they suck.
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Quoting Levi32:
Lol @ the HWRF...takes it into Hispaniola.


they all do levi, all reliable models ive seen take it there. are they all wrong?
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LOL 800 commets in 1hr?
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re: 869

IT WASNT BP's FAULT?!?!?!?

Amazing.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Not sure that is even 93L. Should wait for the graphics to come out on raleighwx


you could be right, may be the system near South America
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882. xcool
wassup what models rigth now.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Compare:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSST/FCST_SST20050615_IASSST_20050615.001.gif

to:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSST/FCST_SST20100616_IASSST_20100616.001.gif

All URLs are OK(I checked this)
What are your opinions wunderbloggers???


stop comparing the two years, for gods sake... this year will be nothing like 2005
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Quoting Levi32:
Lol @ the HWRF...takes it into Hispaniola.


So does the ECMWF. Hm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.



No it can't be....no way it's going to Haiti and it's still a broad MSLP field in that image. Have to wait and see the rest of the run come out.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.



Not sure that is even 93L. Should wait for the graphics to come out on raleighwx
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29941

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.