New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting winter123:

95 and 96L are looking good as well



95 and 96L???
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Quoting kanc2001:


sharkcaster!



lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
if this wave keeps going the way its going we may have 94L be for day ends


95 and 96L are looking good as well
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Quoting Levi32:
The wave behind 93L seems to be confusing the ECMWF, distorting the vorticity field by getting too close and slowing development of 93L's low center on the model.
It's going a good 10 mph west faster than 93l is moving. They are going to pile up.
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Quoting Gumbogator:
There are a bunch of bull sharks stirring off of Ft Morgan Ala chasing the bait fish thru the earl(oil) close to shore!! 93L is lurking in the weeds!!


sharkcaster!
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Quoting animalrsq:


"Old-fashioned" phone. The kind you plug into the jack but doesn't take electricity like those with answering machines. You may have no cell service and no power, but still have landline service.


True dat..

My only Line out Post K was the Sound Powered Bell rotary Phone.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
if this wave keeps going the way its going we may have 94L be for day ends



NO WAY! NO WAY! IMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Here is a ship report directly under 93L:


British Kestrel

Position N 12°48', W 066°42'.


Wind from 100 at 18 knots

Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 5 second period


Barometer 1010.3 mb
Air temperature 28.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 5.4 NM
Dewpoint 23.7 ° C

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NOLALawyer you have mail
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Quoting leelee75k:
thanks boyznme!

Another great suggestion and one I didn't think of.


"Old-fashioned" phone. The kind you plug into the jack but doesn't take electricity like those with answering machines. You may have no cell service and no power, but still have landline service.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ah ok, but I think you were right, what goes into Haiti is the wave approaching the Islands now, not 93L


this what Haiti dos not need


on the news this weekend i saw where they showed an aerial of haiti and all the trees from the hills were gone from the earthquake, so if a storm comes there will be nothing to prevent runoff. They said even one med size tree has the root system to absorb some unbelievable amount of water, i think they said like 60,000 gallons per tree. and without that, the water will just run down and make mudslides and flooding. cause there is nothing on the hills but dirt.
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The wave behind 93L seems to be confusing the ECMWF, distorting the vorticity field by getting too close and slowing development of 93L's low center on the model.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
We got nuff problems in the Bayou and Marsh ,..we dont need rumor and hearsay flying round Like DNA in a Soap Opera .

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Quoting Tazmanian:
if this wave keeps going the way its going we may have 94L be for day ends

There's no way both will get spinnin' though so either 93l or 94l would develop, in that case.
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You all happy now. I got NOAA to change 92L to 93L on their site.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23694
looking at the current vis/rgb loops...please tell me im not already seeing low level rotation trying to get going around 14/67....and are we really having venting starting to take place on the north and east sides. this is retarded...there was nothing there last night at all...its amazing how conditions change so quickly...wow.
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AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 678W, 25, 1010, DB
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Quoting Patrap:


Brown Shrimp are a species.

So are White Shrimp

And No Shrimp were oiled.

The closure is a precaution,,and everyone dosent get the closure area down to a specific degree.


Thus the warnings and no fine.




Well said, Pat...
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if this wave keeps going the way its going we may have 94L be for day ends

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scary stuff taz.
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http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Looking sacary
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
93L is starting to look like a comma. "The wheels on the bus go round and round..."
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Quoting leelee75k:
Thanks patrap, that's exactly the type of things I'm looking for, didn't think of either one of those to have.

anyone else?


You can accomplish almost anything with zip ties and duct tape! Lots and lots of paper plates/bowls and plastic silverware.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Why is everyone blaming this on BP when it wasn't just them.


Okay, I'm going to be sorry I did this...

Who decided to replace the drilling mud in the core with seawater?
Who disregarded the maintenance reports for the BOP?
Whose company man repeatedly over ruled the driller and the tool pusher in the three days prior to the blow out?

If your answer to any of these questions is anything other than BP, you fail and are required to reread the materials to pass this class
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ah ok, but I think you were right, what goes into Haiti is the wave approaching the Islands now, not 93L


this what Haiti dos not need
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Has this run been developing it from its current location?.... Or does it look like it's developing the one behind 93l?


This is 93L.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting Patrap:


Brown Shrimp are a species.

So are White Shrimp

And No Shrimp were oiled.

The closure is a precaution,,and everyone dosent get the closure area down to a specific degree.



LOL I thought they were pulling up oil covered shrimp.
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Quoting Levi32:


144 is out.




thats not good
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Quoting Levi32:


144 is out.

Has this run been developing it from its current location?.... Or does it look like it's developing the one behind 93l?
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Quoting kanc2001:


some of us mentioned earlier this could be SE coastal issue more than a gulf one. who knows at this point until we get a surface low


It's not going up east of Florida.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting Drakoen:


Just came out for me
Quoting Drakoen:


Just came out for me


ah ok, but I think you were right, what goes into Haiti is the wave approaching the Islands now, not 93L
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LOL
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Quoting CaneWarning:


The guys should be thrown in jail. They endanger the lives of everyone who might have eaten their "brown" shrimp.


Brown Shrimp are a species.

So are White Shrimp

And No Shrimp were oiled.

The closure is a precaution,,and everyone dosent get the closure area down to a specific degree.


Thus the warnings and no fine.


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Quoting Floodman:


just rest assured that there will be some very interesting court cases after this year, if we get a landfall or two on the northern Gulf Coast


Yes, and I will be in the middle of that fun. Should be an interesting time to make caselaw on some more obscure issues. That is, if FEMA makes it an issue. This was not an issue with the Murphy losses, most of which were limits cases anyway.

Replace "if" with "when." You know it is inevitable this year.

Mike
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF takes 93L to Hati. Doubt it will happen.



some of us mentioned earlier this could be SE coastal issue more than a gulf one. who knows at this point until we get a surface low
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yes they have

120 hours from today is Saturday, which is what the graphic shows


Just came out for me
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting Drakoen:


Graphics for the 120hr have not come out yet


144 is out.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
Quoting RobbieLSU:
Hey everyone. Reporting from Panama City Beach, FL. Water is absolutely gorgeous. It's nice and warm too, like bath water. But not a speck of oil where we're at. Not even any June grass or any seaweed in the water. Pristine!


Give it a week.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Graphics for the 120hr have not come out yet


yes they have

120 hours from today is Saturday, which is what the graphic shows
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Intensity swings are expected. The ECMWF still shows development but weaker on approach to the Yucatan Channel than on previous runs.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26454
the way 93L is looking right now i think the mode run are u less we may have a TD by tusday AM if 93L keeps going the way it is going
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
5 days, no development of 93L on this run as of yet



Graphics for the 120hr have not come out yet
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
PensacoalDoug good song, I like it!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
By The Associated Press | AP

Published: June 21, 2010

Related Links

Complete Oil Spill coverage
NEW ORLEANS, La. - The Coast Guard says it seized 30,000 pounds of brown shrimp after being tipped that boats were trawling an area closed because of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The Lady Monica and La Borrachita were boarded Sunday about 35 nautical miles south of Terrebonne Bay.

The Coast Guard says La Borrachita held about 20,000 pounds of shrimp and the Lady Monica about 10,000 pounds. It was all dumped back into the water, and both vessels were given written violation notices.

An online National Marine Fisheries Service database shows both boats are home-ported in Brownsville, Texas, but registered to different owners.

A Florida-based shrimper was cited June 13 in another closed area




SAD SAD SAD


The guys should be thrown in jail. They endanger the lives of everyone who might have eaten their "brown" shrimp.
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Try this run Monday 21 00z. I think most current. Can't wait to see the 12z and see if it has it move even further east, stays the same or back west.

Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


the SST's are about the same yes, but there are so many more factors that allowed 2005 to explode, it just wont be the same



The same???
I see SSTs about 2 C above SSTs in 2005 in Gulf and 1 C in the rest of careibean
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There are a bunch of bull sharks stirring off of Ft Morgan Ala chasing the bait fish thru the earl(oil) close to shore!! 93L is lurking in the weeds!!
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144 hours; next Sunday it finally develops 93L

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.