New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting lickitysplit:
What does "hot towers" mean and what do they indicate? Thank you.


Look back a page in the blog and read the discussion...it's what most of the rest of us do when confronted by a question that has already been answered
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Wow. I see the 18z SHIPS is taking 93L up to 100kt in 120 hours now.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting txag91met:

U guys are definitely jr mets...there is no low-level center yet, what u are seeing is anticyclonic outflow (-PVA aloft)...no banding yet.


haha Perfectly said.. but still, most are under 18.. like 11-17 year olds. A couple are 18-20 and just starting to get there basic college courses. They will learn in school its more than maps,links,sat views and other basic data you can get on the web.
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1274. Drakoen
Never mind it is -80C LOL:

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R..I.....oh am i on, oops sorry i meant Right In my Place
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Quoting futuremet:


These records are not accurate. There were no satellites, and the ships had limited access.


Doesnt matter, at this time those are the numbers, they have done analysis on the season before and could only find 2 other possible systems

the records are what they are, and 1914 is the least active season on record right now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
What does "hot towers" mean and what do they indicate? Thank you.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


1914 season had only 1 named storm, with the possibility of 2 more

Imagine this blog if we only had 3 named storms lmao


These records are not accurate. There were no satellites, and the ships had limited access.
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With each passing frame, the clouds become more influenced by 93L's circulation. Still broad, but clouds away from the center are beginning to turn counter-clockwise.
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1268. Michfan
Patience with a system like this is a virtue.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO 08N67W
MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 64W-74W. BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/1438 UTC.
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 13N59W IN THE VICINITY OF
BARBADOS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 64W-70W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 61W-73W. THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W TO 14N78W. THIS
WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COUPLED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS GENERATING A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 19N78W TO 22N84W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN MEXICO ACROSS GUATEMALA TO NEAR 14N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-86W.



I see banding?

U guys are definitely jr mets...there is no low-level center yet, what u are seeing is anticyclonic outflow (-PVA aloft)...no banding yet.
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1265. Drakoen
Never mind it is -80C LOL:

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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl _uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

93L Doesn't even show up on the latest 12z run of the euro. Last run had it smashing in to nola. Wait and see like most say on here I guess.
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Quoting katadman:


Testy, testy. Hwy , brother. Looks like I was wrong when I said the other day that I didn't expect anything to spin up before July.


You aren't wrong til you're wrong, brother...though this one is giving me the creeps...so how have you been?
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
I see a large area of high pressure settling over Louisiana/Texas and central gulf, keeping us protected... how long should this HIGH be in place protecting central gulf coast? anybody know?

Last night on the local weather they were showing that high moving off to the east by Thursday of this week. So not much protection for TX, LA there.
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Quoting StormW:
And the plot thickens:



Storm, could you tell me what I'm looking at here? Or give me the proper terminology and I'll look it up? Thanks.
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1260. 47n91w
I agree that something needs to be done, and something that is sustainable and viable in the long-term. Getting the population to explore agro-forestry might be one path to take.

I'm not sure introducing an invasive exotic would lead to a positive solution. But I completely understand where you're going with kudzu.

In the end, it needs to be their idea, their effort, and their hard work to make it succeed. Otherwise, it'll just be one more project that was forced upon the 'locals' by outsiders, which usually end in failure anyway.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Eucalyptus is a good idea. I hadn't thought of that.

My main reason for kudzu is that whenever tree plantings have been attempted in Haiti in recent years, inevitably they get chopped down for firewood. There's no effective ranger or police presence to keep tree plantings safe.

However, I'm not sure that kudzu would grow in Haiti, given that it grows all over the place here, would it do well in a tropical climate? Don't know.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Wouldn't it be something if the wave behind 93L became 94L and was the one to develop?


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 12N54W TO 02N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE BEST INDICATIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE WAVE IS POSITIONED LARGELY ON A MAXIMUM IN TPW BETWEEN 52W-56W.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN STREAMLINE CONTOURS AND THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W.


Correct.. this is the wave that peeps should be watching. Unclassified 94L has the best chance @ 40% while I'll give 93L 25% chance. 93L is actually helping feed energy to the ridging behind itself for 94L. Currently its located near 11.2N and 57.7W (roughly and 1009mb)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Not -80C but -70C. Lines in that skew-t a little tricky

So according to this if we get any red, yellow or white then they will be considered hot towers?

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Quoting Jeff9641:


No!


1914 season had only 1 named storm, with the possibility of 2 more

Imagine this blog if we only had 3 named storms lmao
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7475
Well i'm off to do some work, I'll be back later on. Behave 93L!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Eucalyptus is a good idea. I hadn't thought of that.

My main reason for kudzu is that whenever tree plantings have been attempted in Haiti in recent years, inevitably they get chopped down for firewood. There's no effective ranger or police presence to keep tree plantings safe.

However, I'm not sure that kudzu would grow in Haiti, given that it grows all over the place here, would it do well in a tropical climate? Don't know.
It does haha. It grows throughout south Florida and I believe it's from the tropics of Asia
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1252. Drakoen
NVM
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I rode Hurricane IKE out on Galveston Island with a 14 foot surge so trust me Im not guessing on these storms ever again. Im leavin all to the professionals. But Mother Nature will win everytime
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Quoting TerraNova:


Cloudtop temperature not cold enough to be hot towers.

I know, I thought you were saying that the cloud tops had to be hot. Lol my mistake.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well.. even if you RIP a system 0-0-0 won't last. Alex will come, no one can stop that.


Was there ever a season that ended at 0-0-0? I kind of doubt it.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Hurricanes101:


LMAO


**bows deeply**

I'll be here all week! Tip your waitresses!
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Wouldn't it be something if the wave behind 93L became 94L and was the one to develop?


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 12N54W TO 02N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE BEST INDICATIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE WAVE IS POSITIONED LARGELY ON A MAXIMUM IN TPW BETWEEN 52W-56W.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN STREAMLINE CONTOURS AND THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 52W-59W.
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Hot towers doesn't mean hot convection. They are extremely cold cloud tops which extend high up into the atmosphere.


Cloudtop temperature not cold enough to be hot towers.
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1241. IKE
12Z UKMET @ 54 hours....

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Well.. even if you RIP a system 0-0-0 won't last. Alex will come, no one can stop that.
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Been strange here lately. We have had early morning downpours around 2-4 am from the past couple of days here.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3711
Quoting Tazmanian:





NO lol


Whew! Wipes forehead. lol
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Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
I have usually just watched this blogg for the past years and havnt wrote too much. But Im suprised at how some of the more trusted and knowledgable bloggers on here are jumping the gun with this. I truly think everyones knows that its just a guessing game until we have a closed low for the models to go by.

i agree
this thing could go any where right now
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Quoting Floodman:


The correct idiom is "throw it out the window"...also, did your hand cramp, or something?


Testy, testy. Hwy , brother. Looks like I was wrong when I said the other day that I didn't expect anything to spin up before July.
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Quoting IKE:


There was only the ECMWF and that was over a week away. I didn't board up any windows.


As long as you have a good shower curtain, you shouldn't have to board up any windows.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting StormW:


Well, yes and no...how do you know that these haven't reached their full height yet? And their not caused by friction:

These towers are called "hot" because they rise high due to the large amount of latent heat released as water vapor condenses into liquid and freezes into ice.[1]

In 2007, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has hypothesized that the wind shear between the eye and the eyewall could enhance updraft and be a purely dynamic generator of convection.[3]

And since it's a strengthening system, I tend to prefer hot towers.


I agree with Storm, based upon my reading of several articles. The theory of how they form, should not detract from what we see in terms of high ice.

Eventually they may come up with a solid theory for their formation. When these things go up and you see that super high cold ice bursting like an atomic bomb, the bottom line is ... rapid intensification often does occur. We've seen the pattern over and over for years. They go up, and the whole thing begins to turn in on itself, almost like another dimension. Of course the shear has to cooperate.
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Quoting TerraNova:


No, just cold convection at the moment.

Hot towers doesn't mean hot convection. They are extremely cold cloud tops which extend high up into the atmosphere.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
You mean to tell me that Taz has the power to ban people? Wow! and lol. Who get's to ban him?





NO lol
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1228. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


I bet you'd be happy to do so based on the model runs from earlier today!


There was only the ECMWF and that was over a week away. I didn't board up any windows.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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