New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously...
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
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I am very interested in 93L, but unlike everyone else, I am not buying the hype as of yet. Once a COC is found, then maybe the models will pick up on it more. With such a huge ridge in place over the southern states, I highly doubt a tropical system would get near the oil spill. The ridge in place is really strong, granted, things can change by the end of the week. IF anything, we are looking at a Mexico/Texas landfall.
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1322. GetReal
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Link Interesting to note, the last couple frames suggest that 93L is beginning to influence the environment around it. It's also a fairly large disturbance, which could mean it might take a bit longer for it to close of a circulation (or at least obtain a tighter one which isn't broad in nature). Cloud pattern suggests continued organization, though deep convection has decreased in certain areas.
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Quoting StormW:


No...I wanted to see who'd call me on it, and provide the information...sorta like a mini met lesson for the blog...Drak did a great job, as always! Hot towers develop in hurricanes...we don't even have a depression yet.

Do you think we will have one soon?
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Any experts want to analyze what this means?
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Yes, he certainly should have read all 26 pages worth of discussion before posting a question like that. J/k lol


Nope, just the last one, where that discussion (which finished at the top of this page) started...LOL
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I've been doing pretty well, Flood. Had a great time with my kids yesterday. And you?

Even without a COC yet, I'm already convinced that we are going to see this invest (or the wave behind it)become ugly by next week. I'll certainly be watching at any rate.
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Just a little "fun" fact, 2004's Alex when it was first designated a depression was only forecasted to reach a peak of 40kt. Of course, there was a lot of land interaction in the original forecast.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1308. xcool
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That's better.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
So you are still saying that hot towers and overshooting tops are the same?
Myself I would classify both as the same thing with the exception that a hot tower is on a much larger scale.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting StormW:


No...I wanted to see who'd call me on it, and provide the information...sorta like a mini met lesson for the blog...Drak did a great job, as always! Hot towers develop in hurricanes...we don't even have a depression yet.
Ah ok. That's what I thought.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What's 100kt??I think baltimore is going in a drought.It looks like the poor trees are just dying.I'll take your rain anyday.


About 115 mph, I think.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

I would wager that hot towers are the same .. on a MUCH larger scale. Anyone know better?
But I've seen larger overshooting tops on spring thunderstorms in the midwest...
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What's 100kt?? I think baltimore is going in a drought.It looks like the poor trees are just dying.I'll take your rain anyday.


100kt=115mph (Cat 3)
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
where can i find ships model. Thanks
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Quoting scottsvb:


haha Perfectly said.. but still, most are under 18.. like 11-17 year olds. A couple are 18-20 and just starting to get there basic college courses. They will learn in school its more than maps,links,sat views and other basic data you can get on the web.


Am I the only 30 something?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...wasn't getting on you, just saying...


Yes, he certainly should have read all 26 pages worth of discussion before posting a question like that. J/k lol
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
For young and old a like there is always hope no matter how hot it gets. Link
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
So you are still saying that hot towers and overshooting tops are the same?

I would wager that hot towers are the same .. on a MUCH larger scale. Anyone know better?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi extreme...Could you please post the links to those sites? Thanks!


Link
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Good afternoon!

Interesting to see 93L so soon. SHIPS takes it to a 115 mph major hurricane.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting lickitysplit:


Oh. Um. Uh. Thanks. I guess.


Yep...wasn't getting on you, just saying...
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Quoting StormW:
Some of you may not choose to believe me...but sometimes I'll do "silly" if you wish, things like that...like IRT the hot towers. I do things like that, not often, to see who'll call me on it, and provide the best info...Nice job to Drak...Hot Towers reach up into the Tropopause.



So you are still saying that hot towers and overshooting tops are the same?
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Quoting extreme236:
No Dvorak estimates from TAFB or SAB this cycle yet. Maybe the next one.


Hi extreme...Could you please post the links to those sites? Thanks!
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ok guys gotta go going get ready to board flight to jamaica, carrying my laptop so will post update from there, i will be there untill thurs hopefully nothing too drastic happens before then.....GULP.
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1284. xcool
anticyclone developing



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Quoting Floodman:


Look back a page in the blog and read the discussion...it's what most of the rest of us do when confronted by a question that has already been answered


Oh. Um. Uh. Thanks. I guess.
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No Dvorak estimates from TAFB or SAB this cycle yet. Maybe the next one.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting extreme236:
Wow. I see the 18z SHIPS is taking 93L up to 100kt in 120 hours now.


It's possible.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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