New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1378 - 1328

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to be improving on satellite imagery was we speak, but there is no one well-defined circulation. If you look at 850 millibar vorticity you can see multiple vorticies all over the place. Could take a couple days before TD status, but I think it could be accomplished within 48 hours. I think it could be a concern to the GOM states if it does develop.


Just looking at the visible you can see there is basically no spin, its gotta drop the pressures a bit more to get it goin, and the buoys around are saying that it is dropping
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


If a storm were to develop, that scenario would keep Fl in the clear. More of a Texas or Mexico event.


At this point...I don't see 93L affecting south Fla.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1376. Patrap
..The wheels on da Invest go round and round..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1375. Drakoen
NWS Mobile:

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A GENERAL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE FURTHER ON THIS AS ANY MODEL OUTPUT WILL
BE SUSPECT/HIGHLY VARIABLE UNTIL IF/WHEN A LOW LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting Jeff9641:


What's up bud! What is your take on 93L?
Looks to be improving on satellite imagery was we speak, but there is no one well-defined circulation. If you look at 850 millibar vorticity you can see multiple vorticies all over the place. Could take a couple days before TD status, but I think it could be accomplished within 48 hours. I think it could be a concern to the GOM states if it does develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks
Mini Oreos
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
1371. Patrap
93L Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Another big wave plowing across africa (almost to 0E)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Severe - Gulf

WWT SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA EASTWARD TO PENSACOLA, FL…

Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop across the Mississippi Delta eastward to Pensacola, FL during the next 3-5 hours. This is associated with a low pressure trough that is lingering across the area.
Caution is advised in/near strong activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, the blog has slowed way down since that 12Z ECMWF came out.

this blog slow-down reminds me of before Wilma in 2005! NOT GOOD!


OMG LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami,

It is Brent....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very interesting from the CPC for this week. They even suggest a slight chance for development in the deep tropics, but mainly for the Caribbean (high chance):

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Some convection is popping up over the Gulf oil spill:


I think I see a pinhole eye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right now 93L's main problem is lack of a Low Level Circulation. Currently, it is in the process of gaining a MLC. Very little vort on the 850 mb level too. 93L will likely take awhile to organize, Thursday - Friday is the likely time we'll see any sort of genesis with 93L. Right now I believe the NHC is dead on with 30% medium, not wishcasting nor downcasting it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1358. Patrap
Come Friday..on 93L

A scenario



HAL 9000: Dr. Floyd?

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What is it HAL?

HAL 9000: There is a message for you.

Dr. Heywood Floyd: Who's calling?

HAL 9000: There is no identification.

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What's the message?

HAL 9000: Message as follows: "It is dangerous to remain here. You must leave within two days."

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What?

HAL 9000: who is JFV Dr.Floyd ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting biloxidaisy:


About 115 mph, I think.



To convert knots to MPH take the knots and multiply by 1.15
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Baltimore...

It looks like everyone is going to get rain from the thing....maybe even Baltimore...lol..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, the blog has slowed way down since that 12Z ECMWF came out.

this blog slow-down reminds me of before Wilma in 2005! NOT GOOD!


Nothing should develop before weds afternoon @ the earliest if at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
miami,

No, it wasn't Phil....it was the other guy....but I can't remember his name...
Brent Cameron? Yeah he isn't so good.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
There is so much ridding on when and if we get a closed circulation. If it happens sooner rather then later there really is nothing stopping this from going major an quick.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1351. bjdsrq
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Some convection is popping up over the Gulf oil spill:
BR


The Gulf spill is way west of that mass of convection. It's ignorance like this which is keeping people away from the FL beaches still unaffected by anything related to oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1349. Patrap
Dave Bowman: You see, something's going to happen. You must leave.
Heywood Floyd: What? What's going to happen?
Dave Bowman: Something wonderful.
Heywood Floyd: What?
Dave Bowman: I understand how you feel. You see, it's all very clear to me now. The whole thing.

It's WUnderful.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILT FURTHER WESTWARD INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE E/SE FLOW
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF/WRN CARIB. THIS WILL
CHANNEL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF SHWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Miami NWS Discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
miami,

No, it wasn't Phil....it was the other guy....but I can't remember his name...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katadman:
I've been doing pretty well, Flood. Had a great time with my kids yesterday. And you?

Even without a COC yet, I'm already convinced that we are going to see this invest (or the wave behind it)become ugly by next week. I'll certainly be watching at any rate.


Had a great weekend...my kids are, for the msot part, in St Louis, but I still talked to them...

As for 93L, we;re all watching very closely; you may be getting a call
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
What hurricane's eye wall is that you have in your avatar??


This one is Katrina
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Is the European model the ECMWF? How many times a day does it run?


2 times a day about every 12 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1341. myway
Quoting connie1976:
Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously...


If channel 7 said it.....it is most likely wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you can surely tell when schools out for summer around here Lol

:romperroom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


Am I the only 30 something?


i haven't made it there yet...at 27, i don't have long though...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously...
I don't think they're looking at the models. If it was Phil Ferro I might pay more attention to it though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Some convection is popping up over the Gulf oil spill:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:


Am I the only 30 something?


Nope ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1315,
Looks like the strongest vorticity is the wave behind 93L approaching the islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW what do you think about the last couple of frames on the RGB loop at the NHC if you have been watching. Looks interesting to me especially the last two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Chsnnel 7 says that 93l will bring us rain here in South Florida....It doesn't seem that anyone is taking 93l seriously...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1378 - 1328

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.