New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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1478. Becca36
Quoting connie1976:


Am I the only 30 something?

No! LOL
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually, the more I think about it, planting kudzu all over Haiti might be a good idea. Plant trees and they'll just be chopped down for firewood.


and cows and goats will eat kudzu.
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Quoting Lower4216:
Ya. Good luck with that.

I think you're right!


At least on my presentation there is a little grab-spot on the lower Rt Hand corner that I can click on and mouse to adjust both horizontal and vertical aspect.

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1475. Patrap
Quoting pottery:
Pat, I thought we agreed not to mention the un-mentionable anymore.
But your post on "the scenario' was Brilliant.
You are excused, just this once...
heheheh


Thanx for the pass..

Some things one has to share..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
My apology never could spell got off to a bad start in elementary school almost gave up.
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1470. JDSmith
Quoting Babsjohnson:


If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off?


I don't know if I should be appalled or rolling around on the floor twitching with laughter.
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1469. pottery
Pat, I thought we agreed not to mention the un-mentionable anymore.
But your post on "the scenario' was Brilliant.
You are excused, just this once...
heheheh
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1468. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:


You're killing me today, Pat


Might as well Laugh this week floodman..

Oil zilla could be close by this time next Week.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
I'm still lurking but had to come back to say thank you to all for the great responses to my questions, I definitely need to do a shopping trip before a storm threatens to pick some of those things I never thought about.

love the mini oreos too, but I stockpile m&m's, oreos make me want milk!
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Quoting Patrap:

2015 UTC RGB



The models have no idea where this one's going
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon.


Wendsday...
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.
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Quoting Patrap:


You should see the Filter Wrench


You're killing me today, Pat
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Quoting fire635:


I think its a little to early to start saying which states are "safe" At this point ALL of the southern states need to stay alert. We all know that the models WILL change many times as the system organizes and as the conditions change.
That is true but keep in mind Jeff narrowed it down to south Florida. Unless there is some sort of weakness around Florida to pull this system there isn't going to be much movement to there. Like you said still too early but a south Florida strike seems unlikely considering conditions.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1462. Patrap
Quoting kingy:


his ego doesn't need any further inflation



TYVM,..LOL


You have a stain on yer tie...looks like crow
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
Quoting Fl30258713:


That's both sad and funny,lol.


If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off?
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Quoting Patrap:
Come Friday..on 93L

A scenario



HAL 9000: Dr. Floyd?

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What is it HAL?

HAL 9000: There is a message for you.

Dr. Heywood Floyd: Who's calling?

HAL 9000: There is no identification.

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What's the message?

HAL 9000: Message as follows: "It is dangerous to remain here. You must leave within two days."

Dr. Heywood Floyd: What?

HAL 9000: who is JFV Dr.Floyd ?


******************

8:59 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

A JFV watch has been issued for the Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderblog. JFV conditions may occur within the next 48 hours. Watch may be upgraded to a warning at next advisory.

FORECASTER AVILA

****************
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2309
1458. cg2916


Forming anticyclone over 93L.
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious...
Because the reliable ECMWF has been taking 93L to Texas for quite some time now. Steering also would suggest movement into the Gulf.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1455. pottery
Quoting smmcdavid:


Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious...

'cause it's bigger?
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1454. kingy
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Best post of the year! XD


his ego doesn't need any further inflation
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate.


Except depending on how big it gets, if it gets there, the waves and winds are likely to shove oil onto the beaches all along the North Central Gulf Coast.
.
If your talking Texas/Mexico border, that would be better. I know it's an incredibly long way out and it will do what ever it does, but the further north it goes just means more oil on land to the east. IMO
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Ya. Good luck with that.

I think you're right!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
tonight 93L should get its act together and I wouldn't rule out a TD tomorrow morning,remember sheer is nill,pressures are dropping and SST's are feeling,HOT,HOT,HOT.....seriously,I'd be suprised if tonight we don't see some convective organization......
It will take a longer time for a TD, imo. It still needs to develop a well-defined closed surface low, and that doesn't take a couple minutes since it doesn't have a well-defined low as of now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon.

The hurricane hunters aren't going out tomorrow, they are gong on the 23rd.
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1448. fire635
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
South Florida might get some rain, but that is only if 93L stays as a big cyclone and if it does a slightly more northerly track. What models are showing (don't know if they still are as I haven't checked them since yesterday) is the tropical wave right behind 93L around 55W. It doesn't seem to be a "big impact", just a sharply inverted wave, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it develop as the Bahamas region should grow favorable for development.


I think its a little to early to start saying which states are "safe" At this point ALL of the southern states need to stay alert. We all know that the models WILL change many times as the system organizes and as the conditions change.
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Back later to see what's going on. Have a great day, everybody.
Photobucket
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1445. xcool
btwntx08 .THANKS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting Jeff9641:


S FL will see heavy rain from this for sure. Watch the trough later this week guys for a possible turn as some models suggest. I can't wait to see the next GFS run. A possible second system could have a big impact on S FL next week.


Any kind of a NW turn toward the SE fla coast would mean this system would have to cross over Cuba which at this speed would weaken the system at that time so I dont see much of an impact on South Fla from this system. The other system you are refering to is still in Limbo.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If any state should be concerned with 93L (which at this point in time they shouldn't) it would be Texas. But we are still a loooooooooooong ways before I know that what I said will be accurate.


Why is that? Why Texas more so than other gulf states? Just curious...
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Quoting GreenMe2225:
2015 utc images are out. 93l still intensifying. llc formation should still be tonight?


I really do think the HH's will find TD1 tomorrow afternoon.
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Quoting Lower4216:


BE NICE!


Ya. Good luck with that.
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tonight 93L should get its act together and I wouldn't rule out a TD tomorrow morning,remember sheer is nill,pressures are dropping and SST's are feeling,HOT,HOT,HOT.....seriously,I'd be suprised if tonight we don't see some convective organization......
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New Orleans, LA NWS discussion:

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLANS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY EXPECT AT
LEAST A LOW END CHANCE FOR POPS EACH DAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MILD AND MUGGY IN THE 70S.

If that's the case, and 93L develops and moves into the Gulf, then we definately need to watch this closely.
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1435. pottery
Quoting Floodman:


Maybe it does "pore" in this case...LOL

I think you meant 'poor'...
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1434. will45
Quoting Lower4216:
Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it.

BE NICE!


What browser do you use?
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1433. fire635
Quoting Jebekarue:
Quoting leelee75k:
a random question directed to those who have experienced hurricanes and lengthy power outages.

Besides the typical hurricane supplies we are all familiar with, what item or items do you consider to be invaluable either during or after a storm that is not commonly thought of?

thanks

fix a flat, mosquito/bug repellant


Toilet paper is always nice to have
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1432. JDSmith
Quoting Lower4216:
Can anyone tell me how to adjust the size of the page? The text runs off the right side and I have to scoot the page over to read it.

BE NICE!



Hold control and wheel out your mouse. Wheel in to zoom.
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1431. xcool


OLD ??
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting Jeff9641:


S FL will see heavy rain from this for sure. Watch the trough later this week guys for a possible turn as some models suggest. I can't wait to see the next GFS run. A possible second system could have a big impact on S FL next week.
South Florida might get some rain, but that is only if 93L stays as a big cyclone and if it does a slightly more northerly track. What models are showing (don't know if they still are as I haven't checked them since yesterday) is the tropical wave right behind 93L around 55W. It doesn't seem to be a "big impact", just a sharply inverted wave, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it develop as the Bahamas region should grow favorable for development.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go run out and get a New Oil Filter for the House.




That's both sad and funny,lol.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.