New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1528 - 1478

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index


Puerto Rico?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute, I thought that

mares eat oats
and does eats
and little lambs eat ivy;
a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong


You're as whacked as Pat only you run to verbal links. Must be too many Dead concerts. LoL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1526. Patrap
Mayors from across America visit Louisiana marsh fouled by BP oil spill
Published: Monday, June 21, 2010, 2:21 PM



From the deck of a charter fishing boat idling near the marsh in Barataria Bay, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu on Monday showed more than a dozen mayors from cities across America the damage BP's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is wreaking upon Louisiana's wetlands.


Behind a barrier of stained white boom, a thick black ring lined the bed of a vast field of bright green marsh grass poking out of the sea. In some places, the deadly oil already had killed thick patches of grass, leaving a soggy, brown heap. A few small blobs of oil floated on the water's surface. A faint petroleum stink hung in the hot air.


"This is not an esoteric experience. This is real life." Landrieu told mayors from California, to Massachusetts, and from Minnesota to the Gulf Coast.

"It's like a nightmare that keeps recurring," he said, driving home the message that until engineers can cap the gushing underwater well about 80 miles south of New Orleans, the oil spill remains an ongoing disaster.

Even as Landrieu and others highlighted the oil's harmful effects on the marshes, however, they also heralded a pair of messages that, while second-nature to those along the Gulf Coast, surprise outsiders: much of Louisiana's seafood is safe to eat, and a six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling could cripple the state's economy.

Explaining that oil pipelines snake beneath the bayou that the delegation traversed by boat for about an hour before reaching the oiled marsh, Landrieu said that the drivers in every city represented by the visiting mayors rely on oil mined in south Louisiana to fuel their cars.

"If we can't do this, we need to talk about a new energy policy," Landrieu said.

For their part, the visitors said the scene on the ground differed greatly from what they expected based on news reports.

"Way up in Philadelphia, it's a very different story from what we're seeing today. All we see is the same B-roll of something coming out underwater," Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter said, referring to video images of the underwater oil plume gushing from the busted Macondo 252 well.

"I had fish and shrimp last night, and it did not taste like oil like they say on the news," said Elizabeth Kautz, the mayor of Burnsville, Minn., and president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, which sponsored the junket.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1524. cg2916
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



If you click the -3hr tab in the upper left corner, the rotation was stronger at that time. Seemed to have taken a couple steps backwards.




That vorticity isn't over 93L 3 hours back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LGEM, IVCN, and SHIPS take 93L to near-category 4 strength, scary thing is it's June.

18z early-cycle runs on 93L.



18z early-cycle intensity runs on 93L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me too, I'm looking at the ECMWF for track as not too many models have initialized on 93L yet.


And they won't until 93L forms a LLC.

Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
1521. pottery
Quoting cg2916:


Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.

I dont want to see that!
Denial is not just a river in Africa.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
Quoting cg2916:


Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.



If you click the -3hr tab in the upper left corner, the rotation was stronger at that time. Seemed to have taken a couple steps backwards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iluvjess:
I added boom to my list this year.


LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twhcracker:
if oil zilla comes, cyclone oz could be on twc looking like one of those blobbed up brown pelicans. cantore could interview him. he would look like a man shaped brown coated lumpy talking babe ruth bar. and then cantore might accidentally strike a match.... yikes


Much will depend on if it is a hurricane and where it comes ashore. If it is a gulf hurricane, major category, and follows the euro, then it is much more likely that Cycloneoz will be the first person to show us if oil has become airborne. Cantore? He does not go out into hurricanes. He just goes to them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1516. cg2916
Quoting extreme236:
I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.


SHIPS takes it to a Cat 1 in 48 hours and a Cat 3 eventually, there is no center so it's hard for the models to get a good grip on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Considering it took it to Texas for about 5 or 6 runs with the exception of the last 00z run, the majority took it to Texas.



Where at along the texas coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1513. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
You are living proof that they keep growing it stronger and stronger.....And i dont mean the oats or the kuzu,or whatever they call it..:)


!!!, hehehehhhh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
But of course, without a defined center, the GFDL and HWRF are obviously having some trouble with 93L, as they show absolutely nothing with this system during the 12z run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1511. cg2916


Finally got some vorticity, I expect a possible weak LLC tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathersp:


The CMC and EMCWF started to pick it up on yesterday's 12z run and continued with it on the 00z. The EMCWF had a 950mb into NOLA on the 00z run (take with the dead sea of salt). 93L was declared and a blob has taken shape ahead of schedudle, wathcing for LLC's/COC's/ any sort of spins at the moment. Shear is very low and conditions are favorable for devlopment. Currently specialty models are having a hard time tracking it beacuse ther is no "center".


thanks for the update. i'm sure they were going nuts yesterday with the 950mb into New Orleans.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1509. Patrap


Times-Picayune reporter David Hammer, who is covering the BP oil spill, explains the latest developments June 21,2010.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twhcracker:


you must work for the TDC haha


Nope just on vacation lol. My family and I have come here every year for all 21 of my years and this is the cleanest/warmest it's ever been. We're here til Saturday so hopefully it'll stay like this until then
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.
Me too, I'm looking at the ECMWF for track as not too many models have initialized on 93L yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I added boom to my list this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1505. pottery
Quoting twhcracker:


and cows and goats will eat kudzu.

A story about Haiti and good Intentions-
5 years ago a group of well meaning people put together a container-load of seeds for the Haitian people to plant.
They were horrified when the Haitians made Porridge and ate up all the seeds.....
I had to explain, that Hunger overrides ALL other emotion/desire/need.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
You need to check all the model runs that you missed. 2runs ago ECMWF was taking a strong hurricane into the Fla. panhandle; now a wave into the entire Tex. coast.
Considering it took it to Texas for about 5 or 6 runs with the exception of the last 00z run, the majority took it to Texas.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1503. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute, I thought that

mares eat oats
and does eats
and little lambs eat ivy;
a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong
You are living proof that they keep growing it stronger and stronger.....And i dont mean the oats or the kuzu,or whatever they call it..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm still interested in what the ECMWF shows intensity wise on this system, but now that we have our more reliable tools for intensity forecasting (SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, etc.) I know I'll be paying more attention to those.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like 93L is drifting slowly to the west..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:
the models seem really divided. i didn't read blog yesterday. just curious, did any of you "predict" this 93L yesterday?


The CMC and EMCWF started to pick it up on yesterday's 12z run and continued with it on the 00z. The EMCWF had a 950mb into NOLA on the 00z run (take with the dead sea of salt). 93L was declared and a blob has taken shape ahead of schedudle, wathcing for LLC's/COC's/ any sort of spins at the moment. Shear is very low and conditions are favorable for devlopment. Currently specialty models are having a hard time tracking it beacuse ther is no "center".
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1499. Patrap
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


I was thinking what a bizarre mind he must have. As full of links as his posts. LoL


U should see whats behind these retina's.

It scares me sometimes.


Swoooosh,,,ahhhhhhhhhhhh...
LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
You need to check all the model runs that you missed. 2runs ago ECMWF was taking a strong hurricane into the Fla. panhandle; now a wave into the entire Tex. coast.
The 00z ECMWF took 93L into Mississippi as a 950 millibar hurricane, the 12z takes 93L into Texas as a 1002 millibar tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting twhcracker:


and cows and goats will eat kudzu.


Wait a minute, I thought that

mares eat oats
and does eats
and little lambs eat ivy;
a kid'll eat ivy too...or was I wrong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

'cause it's bigger?


Florida has more coastline.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


nevermind. i guess they don't. i was just looking at the wunderground model image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1494. pottery
Quoting Floodman:


Nope...iI meant "pore"...LOL

How are you today, pottery?

Doing pourly...
But fighting back.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
Quoting kingy:


his ego doesn't need any further inflation


I was thinking what a bizarre mind he must have. As full of links as his posts. LoL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if oil zilla comes, cyclone oz could be on twc looking like one of those blobbed up brown pelicans. cantore could interview him. he would look like a man shaped brown coated lumpy talking babe ruth bar. and then cantore might accidentally strike a match.... yikes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the models seem really divided. i didn't read blog yesterday. just curious, did any of you "predict" this 93L yesterday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Might as well Laugh this week floodman..

Oil zilla could be close by this time next Week.




Gather ye rosebuds while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying...

Fingers crossed, but eyes wide open, hopefully the worst won't come to to pass...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'll take the CLP5 for now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1485. Patrap
..Been A Long time since we Rock and Rolled..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:


The same can not be said about the wave behind 93L. Models have hinted at moving it in Florida's "general direction"
Yeah, I spoke about it a little earlier.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:


The models have no idea where this one's going


Most don't even know it exists. Lackluster model support ATM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Babsjohnson:


If I spray my house in NOLA with PAM will the oil slide right off?


i have noticed since i have been dieting that oil and vinegar dont ever really mix that well. you could try vinegar on your house. you wouldnt attract flies right? you attract more flies with honey than....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1481. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I think you meant 'poor'...


Nope...iI meant "pore"...LOL

How are you today, pottery?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1478. Becca36
Quoting connie1976:


Am I the only 30 something?

No! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1528 - 1478

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast