New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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1727. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS still shows nothing through 102hrs:



Who knows? It might prove to be correct, but there are just too many favorable parameters for something tropical to not pop.


The trend today is...less encouraging for development of 93L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MississippiWx:
18z GFS still shows nothing through 102hrs:



Who knows? It might prove to be correct, but there are just too many favorable parameters for something tropical to not pop.




the GFS is a downcaster all mode runs are downcaster some mode runs right now are even wishcasters
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The National Hurricane Center is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a TD in 48 hrs. I think we may see a Red Circle by 5:00 PM Tuesday. It looks like we get Alex by the end of the week.

The computer models are not very accurate at this stage of the game in forecasting the path. We have to wait a couple of days for more clarity on this.
The 8:00 PM TWO will probably show the same percentage.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1723. IKE
18Z GFS through 108 hours. Does very little with 93L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
95E

#7
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
18z GFS still shows nothing through 102hrs:



Who knows? It might prove to be correct, but there are just too many favorable parameters for something tropical to not pop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
ILC053-075-212230-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0014.100621T2200Z-100621T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
500 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FORD COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 456 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO SOUTHEAST
OF MELVIN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCKLEY...CISSNA PARK AND LODA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4068 8786 4050 8780 4048 8825 4058 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 262DEG 21KT 4054 8818

$$

IZZI
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
The idiot is anyone wishing a storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




the nhc may move that fight up


I highly doubt it though, but who knows
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


True...Let's see what DMAX does to it. But I am fairly confident the HH's will find it meets the criteria for a TD.
Like Drak just said, without a well-defined circulation 93L won't be able to sustain its convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
From the NWS in Melbourne, FL regarding 93L:

WED-FRI...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK ACROSS FL PENINSULA AS DLM RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

LTST GFS/ECMWF SOLNS SHOWS FALLING HGHTS OVER CARIB REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH NCEP/HPC TPC LOW POSITION AND PERHAPS A CYCLONE
CENTER EMERGING OVER THE WRN CARIB/YUCATAN AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IRREGARDLESS OF DISCRETE LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECT DEEPER
MOISTURE FETCH TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND CORRESPONDING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE.


Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
1715. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm

NHC highlights areas that have a moderate risk of becoming a cyclone now..
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1714. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Nah! That tree has a Force Field around it.
Made it myself. Used 7 shower curtains.......
nothing known to mankind can infiltrate the curtain....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Recon does not go out until Wednesday, 2 days from now; not sure why you keep saying tomorrow




the nhc may move that fight up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Isolated tornadic supercell in Illinois, huge tornado on the ground.

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
The National Hurricane Center is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a TD in 48 hrs. I think we may see a Red Circle by 5:00 PM Tuesday. It looks like we get Alex by the end of the week.

The computer models are not very accurate at this stage of the game in forecasting the path. We have to wait a couple of days for more clarity on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1710. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:



ya may have meant "without"..


It's been a long day lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting fire635:


Youre an idiot... goodbye



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


True...Let's see what DMAX does to it. But I am fairly confident the HH's will find it meets the criteria for a TD.


Recon does not go out until Wednesday, 2 days from now; not sure why you keep saying tomorrow
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
1706. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Upper level steering, I think, is felt when a system attains a pressure of 950 millibars or below, not sure though.


I don't think you want to paint yourself into an atmospheric pressure corner there, bub...a CAT 1 or 2 can be psuhed around by upper level flow; thought a CAT 3 (your example) would be more effected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Hmmmm.....

Full-screen
Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 21 Jun 2010 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and falling








yup we may have a SFC LOW
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Well everyone should have a mind set of RIP no one wants to see a storm but i feel like some of guys want one with this oil spill it will be disaster
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1701. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:



am 100% with you


same here if 93l blows up like 92l did many times starting tonight it could get rather large in size and we just may see the biggest red round ball shape that will be nowhere near what 92l looked like when it blew up . this thing looks like it wants to eat everything around it and get fatter and fatter . get readay
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Might take longer, still has much to accomplish.


True...Let's see what DMAX does to it. But I am fairly confident the HH's will find it meets the criteria for a TD.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
Quoting ssmate:
link?




i re move that commet plzs update that and re move it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1698. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:
93L won't be able to sustain organized convection with a surface circulation which is currently not evident on satellite loops or MIMIC-TPW



ya may have meant "without"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Hmmmm.....

Full-screen
Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 21 Jun 2010 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and falling




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


KABOOM




hmmm nhc say 48hrs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1694. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
1693. Drakoen
93L won't be able to sustain organized convection with a surface circulation which is currently not evident on satellite loops or MIMIC-TPW
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
1692. ssmate
Quoting Tazmanian:
am teching 93L how too go too the bath room thats my boy oh look i think 93L this went out a fart pea you
link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1691. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
"93L looks pitiful, sorry. That wave emerging from Africa could really spell trouble next month! That is the one I am watching!"



Jeff, are you referring to this?

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26483
1690. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:



am 100% with you
It already looks like a cat-5 on the visible....jk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


KABOOM


Good post Scott. Could you please post the link to that site?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I predict TD1 sometime tomorrow.
Might take longer, still has much to accomplish.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:
WTH TAZ?




am teching 93L some new tricks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1684. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Working late today and just spot checked the loops....Convection has waned quite a bit on 93L over the past few hours but sheer remains low.....Have to see what it does overnight but it seems less organized than this morning....I think the proximity of the TUTT, and resulting sheer just to the North of the disturbance, is preventing any significant further organization at the moment....Just my take.
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Quoting Ivanhater:


Not at all, even a strong tropical storm weak hurricane will feel the trough the GFS and Euro are advertising. Now if we had a deeper ridge and shallow trough, then a strong hurricane could even take advantage of that.
Let's see. Not too convinced at the moment.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1680. IKE
WTH TAZ?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Not tomorrow it takes a little more time than that I say 5pm Wed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's see what Max Mayfield says about 93L.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11271

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.