New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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1926. cg2916
I think they'll keep it at 30%, it hasn't done much.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok try this


1915 Galveston Hurricane

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1924. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Ok try this
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
For those saying its not better organized i will strongly disagree......LOOK at the 850mb Vorticity now.......nothing there earlier today



Improved Divergence...so its exhaling really good with the Anti-cyclone overhead



Convergence will be coming....WATCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1920. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:


You are very right Drak. People are impatient. I just want to know WHEN,WHEN???


Where's it gonna hit?!?!?!?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Quoting all4hurricanes:
that was fast this one's a little trickier


Martha, 1969
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting btwntx08:

40 %


ok to be fair, based on what?

93L hasn't really done much at this time to warrant an upgrade in the percentages

Lost most of the convection and yes I am aware part of it is diurnal minimum, but this system is going to take time to organize, be patient
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
that was fast this one's a little trickier
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
1915. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:


Very impatient. Tropical cyclone development is a process and some don't and have yet to realize that.


You are very right Drak. People are impatient. I just want to know WHEN,WHEN???
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26499
Big arse Invest:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1911. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1910. DehSoBe
Quoting Levi32:
The models are of little use when you have a very open and long tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Most of the models won't want to develop that. The reason that the GFS doesn't is because it tries feeding back too far to the northeast under the baroclinic support area, and as a result doesn't bundle the heat. We have a lot of energy coming into the Caribbean, and if that bundles, as it is already starting to, there is a good chance of getting development. Don't expect a lot of model support in a situation like this until the system is already developed.
This is what I was thinking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I like these guessing games

Do you know this hurricane?


Eloise, 1975
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Nice Pat

I had the honor to work with John Hope at NHC in the seventies for one year. I was a tech with the satellite division (NESS). We supplied the ATS3 satellite photos to the Hurcn Forecasters...At lunch, he often shared some of his cookies with me. I real nice man!

Quoting Patrap:

John Hope



Born:May 14, 1919, Pennsylvania
Died June 13, 2002 Atlanta, Georgia

Few north Georgia residents have had such a positive and long-lasting effect on the people of the United States and the world than quiet, unassuming John Hope. For twenty years Hope was the backbone of severe weather forecasting at The Weather Channel. He became a national icon during the Weather Channel's coverage of Hurricane Hugo, although he had been involved in weather forecasting for most of his adult life.

John Hope grew up in Eastern Pennsylvania where he witnessed the Great Depression first-hand in the heavily industrialized Scranton-Wilkes Barre region. After his mother died when Hope was 16, he began working at a local grocery store to help the family. John joined the Army Air Corps, where he served four years, mostly as flight navigator. For a civilian career John returned to college to get his degree in math, then continued at the University of Illinois School of Meteorology.

His first post-graduate job was with the National Weather Service in Memphis. In 1962 he worked on the meteorology team that helped John Glenn get into space, and returned him safely to earth some five hours later.
As fate would have it, John Hope went on to become one of the people who created the National Hurricane Center in Miami in 1967. As the center was preparing the list of hurricane names for 1969, John suggested Camille as the "C" name, in honor of his daughter. Little did John Hope know that both he and his daughter would make history in 1969. Camille became the second most powerful hurricane to reach land in the history of the United States, and John was covering the storm.

John Coleman came up with the idea of The Weather Channel in 1981. At that time John Hope was wrapping up a 32 year career with the National Weather Service. Hope liked the concept of an around the clock weather network and when Bruce Edwards welcomed what few viewers were tuned in on May 9, 1982, John Hope was there. He served as senior meteorologist and was also seen in front of the camera, helping the struggling cable network through the tough times. He and his family moved to North Georgia, where The Weather Channel is located.

In 1989 Hurricane Hugo struck the coast of the United States in South Carolina. The Category 5 storm did immense damage as high winds and a high tide combined to create a storm surge of unbelievable proportions. John Hope was at the helm at The Weather Channel, calmly showing the storm, predicting the path and urging citizens to evacuate if possible. As the storm passed, letters began to roll in, praising both John Hope and The Weather Channel for its coverage of the hurricane. John had some favorite letters from those broadcasts: those from people thanking him for saving their lives.

In 1992 The Weather Channel had become a premier channel, considered a necessity by many, when Hurricane Andrew took aim at the heavily populated South Florida coast. John Hope was once again called on to lead the coverage, in spite of being 73 years old. Hope took a firm voice, warning people along a fifty mile wide, heavily populated area to evacuate. Andrew struck land near Homestead, Florida, and once again the letters began to pour in, thanking John for saving lives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I like these guessing games

Do you know this hurricane?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
I wish someone would address the wave at 55-60 and tell us what effect this and 93L will have on each other. Typically, the stronger one will take over. Looks like the eastern wave has a surface low but not much else and 93L is just the opposite!
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93L doesn't look as good as it did earlier.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Hurricanes101:
No chance of it being 70% on the 8pm TWO

or 60%
or 40%

I would say they keep it at 30% and there is no reason I see to suggest otherwise


Yeppers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
No chance of it being 70% on the 8pm TWO

or 60%
or 40%

I would say they keep it at 30% and there is no reason I see to suggest otherwise
more than likely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
YAY 1 MORE 1HR TO GO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
1897. Patrap
93L RGB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
No chance of it being 70% on the 8pm TWO

or 60%
or 40%

I would say they keep it at 30% and there is no reason I see to suggest otherwise
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
whats this wait in tell the 8pm two comes out the nhc may no more then what we no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
1893. DehSoBe
How important is it that the model runs have a COC? We dont have one yet, so how much trust should we have in them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


Guess the hurricane.

Hurricane Felix 2007...ding ding ding. end of august and early sept.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nearly 2000 comments in 6 hours over an invest, oh what a season we got ahead of us...

Or do we?
http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2010/06/houston-weather-company-predicts-fewer-hurricanes-this-year.ht ml
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LongBeachNY are you from there? I am, was born there....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1889. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


At your age, I think it is just diuretics. :)


And what were you doing up at 3 this morning? LOL Still don't see anything much on the Navy site yet. It will be interesting to see what happens this evening.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26499
1888. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:
I THINK THIS IS WHAT THE NHC WILL SAY


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM HAS BE COME BETTER
ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

No it will be more or less a repeat of 2PM.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
1887. Patrap

John Hope



Born:May 14, 1919, Pennsylvania
Died June 13, 2002 Atlanta, Georgia

Few north Georgia residents have had such a positive and long-lasting effect on the people of the United States and the world than quiet, unassuming John Hope. For twenty years Hope was the backbone of severe weather forecasting at The Weather Channel. He became a national icon during the Weather Channel's coverage of Hurricane Hugo, although he had been involved in weather forecasting for most of his adult life.

John Hope grew up in Eastern Pennsylvania where he witnessed the Great Depression first-hand in the heavily industrialized Scranton-Wilkes Barre region. After his mother died when Hope was 16, he began working at a local grocery store to help the family. John joined the Army Air Corps, where he served four years, mostly as flight navigator. For a civilian career John returned to college to get his degree in math, then continued at the University of Illinois School of Meteorology.

His first post-graduate job was with the National Weather Service in Memphis. In 1962 he worked on the meteorology team that helped John Glenn get into space, and returned him safely to earth some five hours later.
As fate would have it, John Hope went on to become one of the people who created the National Hurricane Center in Miami in 1967. As the center was preparing the list of hurricane names for 1969, John suggested Camille as the "C" name, in honor of his daughter. Little did John Hope know that both he and his daughter would make history in 1969. Camille became the second most powerful hurricane to reach land in the history of the United States, and John was covering the storm.

John Coleman came up with the idea of The Weather Channel in 1981. At that time John Hope was wrapping up a 32 year career with the National Weather Service. Hope liked the concept of an around the clock weather network and when Bruce Edwards welcomed what few viewers were tuned in on May 9, 1982, John Hope was there. He served as senior meteorologist and was also seen in front of the camera, helping the struggling cable network through the tough times. He and his family moved to North Georgia, where The Weather Channel is located.

In 1989 Hurricane Hugo struck the coast of the United States in South Carolina. The Category 5 storm did immense damage as high winds and a high tide combined to create a storm surge of unbelievable proportions. John Hope was at the helm at The Weather Channel, calmly showing the storm, predicting the path and urging citizens to evacuate if possible. As the storm passed, letters began to roll in, praising both John Hope and The Weather Channel for its coverage of the hurricane. John had some favorite letters from those broadcasts: those from people thanking him for saving their lives.

In 1992 The Weather Channel had become a premier channel, considered a necessity by many, when Hurricane Andrew took aim at the heavily populated South Florida coast. John Hope was once again called on to lead the coverage, in spite of being 73 years old. Hope took a firm voice, warning people along a fifty mile wide, heavily populated area to evacuate. Andrew struck land near Homestead, Florida, and once again the letters began to pour in, thanking John for saving lives.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
bingo.
the problem with the entire scenario is everything is in place for rapid intensification which models cannot handle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
get ready for mass confusion people are going to go insane when they see people trying to guess what the TWO will say at 8pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1883. Levi32
The models are of little use when you have a very open and long tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Most of the models won't want to develop that. The reason that the GFS doesn't is because it tries feeding back too far to the northeast under the baroclinic support area, and as a result doesn't bundle the heat. We have a lot of energy coming into the Caribbean, and if that bundles, as it is already starting to, there is a good chance of getting development. Don't expect a lot of model support in a situation like this until the system is already developed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1882. 7544
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1880. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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