New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on.


Ok this is coming from a 13 year old kid who right now has 4 Tropical Storms this year already? along with Reedzone,Hurricane 101 and about 15 other peeps. okay!
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2127. Patrap
Mid 20's N and Mid 80's West always suck..
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If this continues we should see a TCFA before too long.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting IKE:
That should fire everyone up for the evening!
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Given the current favorable conditions, 50 percent is reasonable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i was off a little on my poll but wow i all most had it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting IKE:
...50 PERCENT...


Wow.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
2121. xcool
yayy lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Borderline Red. The evening hours should be interesting.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
Quoting Drakoen:
Wow 50%
Honestly didn't expect that due to the waning of convection and lack of a low.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2118. centex
A little perspective to probabilities of TD formation. You won't get this from NHC which is why your here but does not disagree with them. I think these numbers are reasonable based on current and forecasted environment. I have a day job so limited in time to research.

24 Hour - 20%
48 Hour - 30%
54 Hour - 50%
72 Hour - 70%
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2117. xcool
good job taz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok what is the only named category five that never made a landfall? Sorry no url to steal an answer from this time


Camielle and Andrew, but Andrew was upgraded in 2003-04 ish
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2115. Patrap
I feel "good"

Huh,..go figure.

Thanks
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2114. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
That should fire everyone up for the evening!


LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
5 TWO's were posted. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2112. JDSmith
It is my informed opinion that 93L is going to pop... Open the infrared channel on this.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&channel=ir

Look at the inflow and massive outflow channel that it has available to it.

93L is HUGE! It just needs a little more spin...
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Quoting GatorWX:


"94L" is currently under about 30-35kts of shear, an isd also embedded in the itcz. I doubt thats going to happen! I do believe it will break away, but until then is no threat. Long term: I would certainly keep a close eye on it. Imagine both developing!? Would certainly shake things up a bit. It's June!!!


Unclassified 94L is in 20-30kt easterly winds (so yeah your pretty much correct) but its also part of the ITZ that you mentioned. It should break off it later tonight or tomorrow. Question is.. will it merge with 93L or just become the dominate feature.. hmmm
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
054

WHXX01 KWBC 212344

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2344 UTC MON JUN 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100622 0000 100622 1200 100623 0000 100623 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.9N 70.0W 15.9N 72.0W 16.9N 74.1W 17.9N 76.3W

BAMD 14.9N 70.0W 15.8N 72.0W 16.6N 73.9W 17.1N 75.7W

BAMM 14.9N 70.0W 15.7N 72.1W 16.6N 74.3W 17.3N 76.4W

LBAR 14.9N 70.0W 16.1N 72.2W 17.4N 74.5W 18.4N 76.7W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100624 0000 100625 0000 100626 0000 100627 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.0N 78.5W 20.8N 82.7W 22.6N 86.3W 24.6N 89.2W

BAMD 17.4N 77.4W 17.8N 80.6W 18.5N 83.6W 18.9N 86.3W

BAMM 18.0N 78.5W 19.0N 82.3W 20.1N 85.5W 21.2N 88.0W

LBAR 19.2N 78.6W 20.7N 82.4W 22.8N 85.4W 24.5N 86.9W

SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 68KTS 79KTS

DSHP 51KTS 59KTS 68KTS 48KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 65.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2108. Drakoen
Wow 50%
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
2107. marmark
eeks...does oil attract hurricanes? Lol
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2106. IKE
2094...it's colors.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually he might be right
But to say that 93L is not going to develop is pretty foolish considering the conditions it has ahead of it. I do believe the area right before 93L has a chance of development but don't kill off a system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
50%...Impressed.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
Pat, you always have a point of putting those graphics up, however you do not appear under the listing of "good" which does not make any sense.
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2102. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
hmmm how many of you said A in my poll
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
2100. Patrap
50%..
Copy Dat.

Oil Zilla seems to have a Vacation in Mind.

Stay Tuned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2099. 7544
Quoting CaneWarning:
]

Now the question is, will we see a turn to the northeast?


was thinking that at the end of the run it look like it was about to turn that way . but im still looking for a more east track in the next run imo
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Quoting Drakoen:


The whole GOM should be watching this but generally the stronger this system becomes the more it will want to go into the central or eastern GOM vs. the Western GOM.
Up to 50%
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2097. cg2916
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Now remind you I just got home, so you may have seen this question already.

Is this a leftover low from 92 and also what is the forecasted track for this system?


No
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2096. IKE
That should fire everyone up for the evening!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Taz was actually the closest percent wise. He said 70%, we're at 50%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Seflhurricane:
based on all the info people have posted looks like we may be close to red on the two


Colars dont mean anything. They are just for public amusement that the government wanted the NHC to put out. Just like the watches - warnings were increased (timewise) for the public.

If they did a colar.. I think they should just use Orange (40-60%)..then straight to TD or sometimes TS. Systems dont have togo to TDs like alot know. Sometimes a system works its way down the the surface and already has 40mph winds. Sometimes they are surface troughs with 40mph winds but not a closed circulation. When the both do above. Then we get from a colar (which I prefer only orange) straight to TS status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OMG


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2091. GatorWX
Quoting scottsvb:
93L probably wont develop but the unclassified 94L near 11.8N and 58.8W has at least a 40% chance. 93L might get absorbed into this feature later Tuesday night into Weds. Maybe by Weds we might have something south of Puerto Rico-Dominican Republic heading WNW towards Jamaica-Cuba-Haiti for the end of the week.


"94L" is currently under about 30-35kts of shear, an isd also embedded in the itcz. I doubt thats going to happen! I do believe it will break away, but until then is no threat. Long term: I would certainly keep a close eye on it. Imagine both developing!? Would certainly shake things up a bit. It's June!!!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Met Service of Jamaica Website
June 21, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Tropical wave just west of the island.

Comment…The Tropical Wave will move away from the island by tonight.
A Trough to linger across the central Caribbean.

24 HOURS FORECAST
Tonight… Isolated thunderstorms are likely over northern parishes.

Tomorrow… Partly cloudy morning. During the afternoon expect scattered showers and thunderstorm over most areas.


3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Wed- Thu… Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes.

Fri… Scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms across the island.

Regionally… Trough and Tropical Waves over the central Caribbean will continue to generate unstable weather conditions across the Caribbean.

grb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
50% chance now!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Grothar:


Caneswatch, I haven't seen you on here since last year. Decided to come back? Things are getting interesting in the tropics.


lol........get in the chat please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



its true lol
It isn't a human, it is a computer, I don't find it possible for a computer to be a caster.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2086. cg2916
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

50%?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2085. IKE
...50 PERCENT...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Still Orange... 50% now!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on.


actually he might be right
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Ivanhater:
GFDL gets its upper air data from GFS which is why you see the turn north as the system gains strength. Interesting week shaping up...


Only at initialization and at the boundry. Within the domain it resolves layers itself.
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oops i mean the GFDL mode runs is being a doomcaster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
2079. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

1. If it is not classified you cannot call it 94L
and
2.The NHC doesn't seem to agree.
Don't quote him. He has but a clue of what is going on.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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