New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.

Why not? Seems to obe verifying well compared to others.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
When is the next ECMWF run?

completed close to 3am for the Night Owls.
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I'm watching the area near 14.8N,72.5 for convection to explode over the next 12hrs and a new closed surface low forming under it!!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop


Wow the amount of circulation and banding has increased significantly. It is really organizing for sure!
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Quoting tropicfreak:
How is our 93L doing this evening, i see that it got upgraded to 50%



it went from 10% this AM too 50% this PM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
Quoting CyberStorm:
anyone think the GFDL model is credible on TS in the gulf at 160hours>?

Right now I think that model has the best solution. GFS and HWRF are all over the place. NoGaps isnt picking up on it yet. SHIPS is useless on a regular basis. So GFDL seems to pick up well on it and it verfied well to this point as well.
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Averaged over the past 6 hours 93L has been moving towards the WNW at 14 mph.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2318. GatorWX
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/93/L
MARK
14.1N/71.9W


Convection coverage has expanded significantly! DMAX could in fact be significant. Tomorrow when all that convection tightens up, I think a low will form. I'm guessing by noon tomorrow, a closed low will be present.
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2317. centex
We are living on models at this point to validate what we know. I don't think the models do the time part right.
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2316. Patrap
93L storm Model Plots
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
anyone think the GFDL model is credible on TS in the gulf at 160hours>?
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How is our 93L doing this evening, i see that it got upgraded to 50%
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Its a concensus of all the models I believe
Yup, that's why it verified second to the ECMWF last year. I usually take that model over most and that's why I'm following that one right now.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2311. xcool
wnw move ?
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2309. Patrap
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting IKE:
*Salts popcorn*

Wow, you really like your popcorn salty...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
2305. cg2916
Is 93L already heading back to DMAX?
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wow they changed up the whole think look

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932010
AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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#2258 has got to be slamming anybody with a slow connection.
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2302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

INV/93/L
MARK
14.1N/71.9W
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Quoting CaneWarning:


What is the TVCN? It curves it back towards the NE.


TVCN

TVCN is a simple track consensus calculated by averaging the forecast latitudes and longitudes provided by the GHMI (interpolated GFDL), EGRI (interpolated UKMET with subjective quality control), NGPI (interpolated NOGAPS), HWFI (interpolated HWRF), GFSI (interpolated GFS), GFNI (interpolated GFDN model), and EMXI (interpolated ECMWF model). TVCN requires at least two of the seven member models to be present. The member models forming the TVCN consensus are evaluated annually, and may change from year to year.

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2300. Patrap
HH Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting xcool:
The TVCNis not a true model


Its a concensus of all the models I believe
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Quoting Tazmanian:




ok may be at lest 6,000 commmet + then


i will not argue with that.
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Quoting IKE:
*Salts popcorn*

Wow. The cloud cover increased significantly.
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Quoting weathersp:
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.



Thanks for posting that.
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The STR will probably pull back. I expect with each model run the tracks will move eastward.
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Quoting weathersp:
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
A ship is reporting a DP of 76, which is relatively moist.

FULL IMAGE
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2291. Patrap
Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

1915



Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

The relative lack of environmental moisture around a tropical cyclone can adversely affect the deep convection and negatively impact the storm and result in weakening. Luckily there is several low earth orbiting satellites that provide estimates of the amount of water vapor in the atmospheric column, commonly referred to a total precipitable water (TPW). TPW estimates from a single satellite platform, however, often suffer from inadequate temporal coverage and poor refresh rates. To partially rectify this issue, the information from three Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU) on NOAA satellites and five Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSMI) on DOD satellites are combined via a blending algorithm described in Kidder and Jones (2007). Such a product has a refresh rate of approximately 6 hours and a spatial resolution of approximately 16km. This product shows the TPW around the tropical cyclone and to further enhance its utility the images are centered on the current storm location and when looped show TPW features moving to and from the storm center.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


no. imo. updates will be too frequent.




ok may be at lest 6,000 commmet + then
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050
I still think there was some type of interplay between what was left of 92l and 93l, but I think the whole area is exploding with thunderstorms, if this wasn't to develop at least it would remove some heat.But right now the news doesn't look good.
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Quoting IKE:
*Salts popcorn*



It's all your fault...I must now go make myself some popcorn.
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Good evening everyone..welcome to the blog SWLAlawchick.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
one day dr m blog will hit 10,000 commets




will it be this year


no. imo. updates will be too frequent.
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2284. Patrap

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

2315

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
2283. xcool
The TVCNis not a true model
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Drak, do think a Charley track is possible? I'm looking at the steering currents and I don/t see that solution coming true.


I think it's possible with the way the steering currents are set up. It will certainly feel the weakness.
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AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.

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2280. IKE
*Salts popcorn*

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Quoting TampaSpin:
I hope the adminstrator starts flagging the unnecessary chit chat that is not important to the blog when that time comes and only relative things are posted....JMO



noted
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114050

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.