New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Quoting stillwaiting:
Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!!
Too much caffeine maybe?

As you just read in the TWD, 93L has a broad surface low. Unless this tightens up I wouldn't expect tropical depression status. I'm going to say a good 30 hours before any serious consideration of a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


I'm gonna take a gander at things shortly...but you could be absolutely right...the NHC says that the coverage of those 3 models are limited to the near vicinity of the storm...I believe the value was something like 6-8 or 6-10 degrees at the most.

This time tomorrow night I will feel more comfortable looking at tracks and strengths. Need to see if it comes together tonight and need to let the models run a time or two to intialize on the system. If this front does drop down from the north a more eastward track is not out of hte question. If I had to pick a place today I would look between texas LA border and Destin. But my thoughts on that can easly change tomorrow.
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Get ready for a disappointing night. JMO
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I would not rely on any model until 93L develops a LLC! Then let the models cycle 3 times before one can believe something. Right now all can do is look at the dynamics of what appears to be in the pipeline, the timing and format a guess as i have done! Its just a guess.
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2372. IKE
93L...*flosses teeth*

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2370. centex
Quoting btwntx08:
this was noted from the nws san antonio
DISCUSSION...
TODAY IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE UPPER HIGH FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT NORTH TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24H AND
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AN EASTERLY
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH
OF LA/MS AND WILL MOVE WEST WITH TIME. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL
TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE PATHWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL BE OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF AND
GEM (CANADIAN MODEL) RUNS PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE INTO THE GULF
Yea I saw that this afternoon, I think useful for it's generality.
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2369. fire635
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I doubt a TD by 11am


Me too, but I'll stand by my thought of TD by 5pm advisory tomorrow.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math.


No southeast Fla. though. A major shift in steering currents would have to happen. Not likely.
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2367. ssmate
Quoting DestinJeff:


written by a bitter Mean Girl?

LOL
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2366. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


written by a bitter Mean Girl?


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math.


monster.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!!


I doubt a TD by 11am
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
Quoting Drakoen:


TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign
Hmmmm...Let's see.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Meanwhile...

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220031
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO...AND HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting StormW:


It should develop...I won't speculate on track yet until I get the chance to look at a few more steering layers forecast maps...and until we get a solid development. I will take a look tonight however, at the updated steering layers and analyze the Guidance package.
TY
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Its beeeeeeeeginiiiiiiiing!!!!watch the area I just discussed its starting to explode w/convection and its just begining,TD1 by the 11am,unless the NHC is ultra conservative like w/92L when it was a TD 2 saturday nights ago!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nope, a cat 2 to cat 3. Just watch my friend very warm water and virtually no shear do the math.
Exactly why I said that I'm not ruling out the possibility of RI, but a category 3 is quite a stretch.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting btwntx08:
ummm westward i dont see a eastward trend sry


agreed.. happens every year . east casters,west casters LA casters...lol we shall see
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Quoting StormW:


We discussed it at the National Hurricane Conference...NHC forecasters stated GFDL, GFDN, and HWRF are not good for long range track.

Fair enough...just looking at the synoptic pattern that track doesnt look too bad...it will shift some of course. Not sold on intensity though. Could be a little stronger or a little weaker. Hard to say until it gets a little more organized.
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2348. Drakoen
Quoting weathersp:
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.



TPC seeing a circulation trying to form good sign
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
2347. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
2345. 7544
Quoting xcool:
wnw move ?


yeap and if it keeps going that way the models will def go east get ready for dmax should be a good one
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2343. xcool
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
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not flaring up as much t'storms but still looking great!!
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2339. Patrap
O boy...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.
what is your opinion on this invest?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Track yes but a strong hurricane.
You are overdoing it. I'm not ruling out the possibility of RI into a hurricane due to the factors present. The question is what is a strong hurricane for you? If it is a major hurricane, you're overdoing it, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2335. IKE
From the Nashville,TN. extended....

"MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUN NGT AND MOVING INTO THE MIDSTATE ON MON. THE GFS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUE. THE EURO
IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS MOVE DUE MAINLY TO ITS OBSESSION WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF."

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2333. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting tropicfreak:


Wow the amount of circulation and banding has increased significantly. It is really organizing for sure!
yep its the real thing lets see how it spins
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This is a beastly "Invest"... takes up half of the Caribbean
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2329. cg2916
Last couple of frames show 2 small bursts of convection.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting StormW:


No ma'am.

Why not? Seems to obe verifying well compared to others.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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