New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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2528. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or is this thing BIGGER than Ike in radius?

It has a long way to go to develop and may shed some of the excess stuff far from the center, but still...

Massive wave...
92L was way larger when it was in the Central Atlantic.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or is this thing BIGGER than Ike in radius?

It has a long way to go to develop and may shed some of the excess stuff far from the center, but still...

Massive wave...
It will contract when the circulation gets going, if it foes that is.
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2526. Drakoen
Firing on the western side:

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*Images for post 2514.

Want scary graphs?





Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
New blog on 93L.
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Quoting Skyepony:
For 93L I'm thinking Tropical Storm, cat 1 at most. Conditions aren't as good as they appear & the real show is behind it at ~58W. Check the 850 vort map. 58W is further along in surface spin & an anticyclone is building over it, not 93L. 93L is just enjoying diffluence aloft being on the west edge of it. Also the air will cool over 58W first, giving it the advantage each night as they compete for water vapor.


You very well could be correct as the 850mb Vorticity is much stronger there as noted......i would think they would be to close for both to develop.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


What Lat/Lon cause I don't see a center.
14N and 69W. Clear as a bell.
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so....as of current rgb/vis/ir sats....14.8/69 sound about right???
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2518. bappit
Quoting Drakoen:
Convection is bare but the structure is excellent:



Say what?
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Quoting pottery:
Everyone is waiting to see a spin with 93L down to the surface.
I fear that if/when we see that, there will be no stopping it..............
until it gets to land, that is.

Very well said
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*REPOST*
5:00 pm EDT National Hurricane Center Advisories: GRAPHICS UPDATE


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Bastardi: Even More Hurricanes Expected this Season, Three Could Hit Oil Spill
Carly Porter
By Carly Porter, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Jun 21, 2010; 7:17 AM ET

The 2010 hurricane season is set to become even more extreme, with 18-21 named storms now in the forecast, and some of those storms will impact the oil spill in the Gulf.

AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has upped his original forecast from 16-18 storms, to 18-21, with at least eight impacts and six hurricanes, and two or three of those hurricanes will have major landfalls. Only five years in the 160 years of records had 18 or more storms in a season.

"The hurricane season should have several hits on the U.S. coast from July through September, mainly in the Southeast and Gulf," said Bastardi.

Bastardi suggests that based on years with a similarly active hurricane forecast as 2010, at least two hurricanes and one tropical storm are set to move through the area of the Gulf oil spill by the end of the tropical season.



As many as three other tropical systems have the potential to track close enough to the spill to impact cleanup and capping operations, as well as other oil rig operations in the Gulf.

"Above-normal tropical activity should feature four named storms in July, with one or two impacting the coastal areas," said Bastardi.

August will also feature an influx of storms.

"August should have six named storms, with two of three impacts on the U.S. coastline," said Bastardi.

Bastardi predicts the heart of this season's storms will occur between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15.

"Not only will that period be more active than normal, but the run up to it, and the time after it," said Bastardi. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15-20 day period."



He is confident that tropical activity will occur before mid-August in the Gulf of Mexico, the estimated time frame at which BP expects the oil leak to be capped.

Back in February, Bastardi based his predictions for the 2010 season on the tropical activity of analog years 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008.

Most of the past analog years Bastardi considered in his 2010 forecast for the Gulf had tropical activity before the middle of August.

Even later into the summer, hurricane season will continue to ramp up.



"By late August and September, the hurricane season should be front and center," said Bastardi. "Expect eight named storms in September and three or four U.S. impacts."

An extreme winter and now an above-normal hurricane season could place 2010 in the record books.

"It's hard to fathom another 12-month period where such wild swings would make weather so significant for such a large area of the population," said Bastardi.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2513. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis 0000 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
2511. pottery
Everyone is waiting to see a spin with 93L down to the surface.
I fear that if/when we see that, there will be no stopping it..............
until it gets to land, that is.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24406
Good Evening all looks like a early start this year
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2508. Patrap
15N

69W

There abouts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
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Quoting skepticall2:


I took it to mail

Ah I was curious myself...heard he was pretty sick for awhile and also saw his sisters post.
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Quoting futuremet:


Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise.

Let's hope it stays that way.
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Quoting Skyepony:
StormW~ 18zGFS doesn't develop 93L. Do you think that is how it will play out?

It is possible...like to see the 00z ECMWF run before I rule it out.
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2501. Patrap
0045 UTC



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
2500. centex
Quoting Patrap:
Also note the Blowup of Convection Nw of the Developing CoC.

Thats the ventilation.

pin point it please, very disorganized.
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Quoting futuremet:


Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise.
So far. Wait until September.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
StormW! looking forward to your post!
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2494. Patrap
Also note the Blowup of Convection Nw of the Developing CoC.

Thats the ventilation.

As well as to the Ne ..its improved steadily too

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting futuremet:


Once intense surface convection starts occurring, cyclonic curvature due to coriolis force will take place.
That will help tighten up that circulation and push 93L to tropical depression status.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Ameister12:
50 pages in less than a day. Can't wait to see how pages we get in a day with a major hurricane.


Everything will be okay if the trolls stay away. This year has been good so far troll-wise.
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Lurking and learning. Thanks Skyepony, I always enjoy your insightful postings.
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2489. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Note the CoC becoming evident
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
2488. Skyepony (Mod)
StormW~ 18zGFS doesn't develop 93L. Do you think that is how it will play out?
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50 pages in less than a day. Can't wait to see how pages we get in a day with a major hurricane.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

LOL Are you from The Weather Channel?

There is no shear in the WCARB.


Shes probably Alexandra Steele, the hot but not so smart woman.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2483. xcool
rotation on visible 15.0n/ 68.5w ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting skepticall2:


Talk to him everyday he doesn't come on here anymore for obvious reasons.
????? It's not obvious to me. I have no idea what happened to him. The last thing I knew was that someone who said she is his sister said he was doing okay.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. Many things in favor.


Once intense surface convection starts occurring, cyclonic curvature due to coriolis force will take place.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
June 21, 2010


That's amazing. Isn't it.
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2479. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
2478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.