New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Welcome to weather folks...didnt you know a weathermans worst enemy is another weatherman?
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2727. JRRP
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2726. gator23
Quoting TampaSpin:


First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog!

no it doesn't you GEESH everyone, daily. Just like the Marlins GEESHED the snot out of the Rays.
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Storm,

Miami is always nice to me like you are..... I think because he is 13, he might take this blog thing seriously and actually get his feelings hurt....
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I have posted a quick new blog. Please comment.
Link
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Quoting gator23:
congrats Tampa, you "GEESHED!" a 13 year old.


First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog!
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2721. Patrap
Quoting PensacolaNative:
PATRAP, looks like were gonna have one of those seasons..........Weather wise.... Wen't fishing at beach Saturday and the water was great!


Fishing always a good thing in my view.
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2719. pottery
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well idk what you wanna call it but I don't think its hindering the system as the developing center is much farther west in an area of low shear. I just don't think its hindering the system at all, but I could see why you would think that. The NHC themselves said conditions are favorable.

OK. Much appreciated.
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Quoting StormW:
I really believe it will get going once it gets away from South America...this may help:

IR2 LOOP
Looking at that loop what do you think about a possible center trying to form at 15N 69W?
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StormW...LMAO...good one!
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PATRAP, looks like were gonna have one of those seasons..........Weather wise.... Wen't fishing at beach Saturday and the water was great!
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2715. Patrap
Quoting midgulfmom:
OMG..Patrap..now I won't be able to get that outta my head! ha ha ha..Good one! and good to c you and tks for all the graphics..


Hello there..good to see yas too.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


From what I can see the kid is just regurgitating some of the things that have been said on here by the older and wiser. Granted, he is only 13, but he has a fairly decent knowledge base for his age. Many of our future mets have started out on this blog. We are all here to read and learn. So you're older and wiser and have more experience, why not foster our youth rather than squashing them like a bug.

yea mine wasnt really towards Miami...I like his input but sometimes him and others attack just like we do from time to time. To say we are dumb for RIPing a storm when we also just voice our opinion is just as wrong as I or somoene else would be to jump on him or any younger forecaster. Actually makes me feel bad when I am right after they jump all over me but it is all good. My feeling are never hurt that bad haha that is why I dont believe in ignoring anyone. I got destroyed for what i said about 92L but in the end...I will just leave it at that.
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2713. Drakoen
Right now I am favoring the GFDL track of this system which is both reasonable in intensity and track.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30829
they gave 95E a 60% ch wish is high

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.





i wounder why they did not do the same for 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
A map I made on the short term look of 93Ls future.

Photobucket
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Quoting CapeObserver:


From what I can see the kid is just regurgitating some of the things that have been said on here by the older and wiser. Granted, he is only 13, but he has a fairly decent knowledge base for his age. Many of our future mets have started out on this blog. We are all here to read and learn. So you're older and wiser and have more experience, why not foster our youth rather than squashing them like a bug.


Amen.
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Quoting Patrap:
..Itsa Crude, Crude Summer..
OMG..Patrap..now I won't be able to get that outta my head! ha ha ha..Good one! and good to c you and tks for all the graphics..
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2708. Patrap
.."The Invest's the same in a relative way, but yer older"..

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Quoting BaltOCane:


exactly, well said.

sorry not eveyone one here knows every single person who is a Met in and around the US and VI.

The Egos in this place are ridiculous.


exactly, I was not aware the person I was responding too was a professional met

I still stand by my opinion though that satellite imagery can suggest things that maps do not see
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't care how old he his......He needs to make sure when he challenges someones post he knows what he is talking about....thats all...AGE MAKES NO DIFFERENCE ON THIS BLOG!
Before I leave I will like to make it clear that I don't come here to "challenge" people. I might come back, but don't count on it.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Perhaps they should set comments on Dr Master's blog so that everyone can read, but only those with an average, or maybe even above average rating can actually post.


How can someone ever get average or above average though if they can't post?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting CaneWarning:
Is that an almost closed low?

Almost...not quite.
You could say it's almost almost.
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Quoting pottery:

Yes I am seeing that at the North and East edges.
You are saying that what I am seeing is enhanced outflow and not shear disrupting the system?
Well idk what you wanna call it but I don't think its hindering the system as the developing center is much farther west in an area of low shear. I just don't think its hindering the system at all, but I could see why you would think that. The NHC themselves said conditions are favorable.
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2650 Storm.

Thanks... I read your articles and understand the principals. I just wasn't thinking in relative terms.
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2698. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
02:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
=====================================

An area of convection (95E) located at 9.6N 91.8W or 440 NM south southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a broad area of fairly weak convection rotating about a developing low level circulation center. 0058z SSMIS microwave image shows formative banding along the south side of the disturbance. Upper level conditions are generally conducive for development with favorable easterly venting and low to moderate vertical wind shear. Vertical AMSU temperature cross section from CIRA show a developing warm core aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB.
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2697. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

INV/93/L
MARK
15.1N/70.3W
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Quoting ElConando:


I don't think some people realize how many people on here that are experienced that just lurk and wait for their time to speak as do I.


exactly, well said.

sorry not eveyone one here knows every single person who is a Met in and around the US and VI.

The Egos in this place are ridiculous.
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Miami,

Are you ok? Are you still here? I think some people forget what it's like to be 13....
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2694. xcool
TampaSpin yes sir :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Forget what I said before

but satellite imagery can in fact suggest things not shown on maps, and they are more real-time than any map is

I have seen several on here say that before, but whatever guess Im wrong

It is all good but clarify what kind of map you are talking about? Model chart sure. Surface or upper air chart? Not so much. That is real data. beats someone trying to come to a conclusion on sat. If an ob says wins are 40kts but satellite dervived winds say 30kts...what are you going to believe first? The surface chart with the ob I hope.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I dont block anyone just for that reason but there has to come a time when some folks relax when someone disagrees with them. Not cool getting lectured by a 13 17 or 18 year old telling someone has is a met for 10 plus years what a rule of thumb is when a met can probably out forecast them any day.


From what I can see the kid is just regurgitating some of the things that have been said on here by the older and wiser. Granted, he is only 13, but he has a fairly decent knowledge base for his age. Many of our future mets have started out on this blog. We are all here to read and learn. So you're older and wiser and have more experience, why not foster our youth rather than squashing them like a bug.
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2691. gator23
congrats Tampa, you "GEESHED!" a 13 year old.
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93L is just in a unfavorable place climatology-wise. South America to it's south.
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Quoting Grothar:


I don't ever recall seeing one form in the Eastern Caribbean either. And I go waaaaaaaay back.
Where did Gustav form ?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting xcool:


better


:o
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Quoting xcool:


very good Convergence


First time that has showed.....things are coming along.
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Quoting Patrap:
..Itsa Crude, Crude Summer..

Yes it is Pat yes indeed....
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2683. pottery
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Pottery I'm assuming you're talking about on the NE edge of the system, but I don't think thats affecting anything, maybe just enhancing outflow.

Yes I am seeing that at the North and East edges.
You are saying that what I am seeing is enhanced outflow and not shear disrupting the system?
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Is that an almost closed low?
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
no surprise a TCFA is now issued for 95E..


Kind of surprising given the "TOO WEAK" designation by SAB...nonetheless good structure and bound to develop eventually.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't care how old he his......He needs to make sure when he challenges someones post he knows what he is talking about....thats all...AGE MAKES NO DIFFERENCE ON THIS BLOG!


Clearly...
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Quoting atmoaggie:

??? You're telling a met with 19 years experience a rule of thumb "you should learn"?!? Wow, I see we are friendly in here tonight.


I don't think some people realize how many people on here that are experienced that just lurk and wait for their time to speak as do I.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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