New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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2778. Patrap
Kmans a wise counselor for sure.
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Quoting kmanislander:


This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself.

Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets.

It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow.

Well said...I will say it again. A weather persons worst enemy is another weather person. We have our moments and fight it out to get the forecast right then when you come in the next day it was as if it never happened haha.
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Soooo has the fun started yet???

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Quoting DestinJeff:


GEESH, TS, you and your charts!


So you don't like accuracy....NICE! If you look at his chart the sheer would rip 93L as it comes out of the Caribbean into the GOM ....the Graph i just posted shows hardly any sheer there at all.......BIG Difference!
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2773. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, people. Take it to your own blogs. Be respectful or get out.

Evening Storm and Drak!

Assuming you two have looked at the latest satellite loops, is the noticeable spin associated with 93L at the mid-levels? I'd put it around 15N 69W.


Good evening! Yes it appears a surface circulation is trying to form in that general vicinity.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
2771. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:


The Rays may leave St. Pete. Did anyone else see that?

I wasnt surprised by that. Miami envy, we win two world series they want one, we are building a new stadium they want one, we hand out cowbells and 4 years later they take the credit...
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Zoo......the voice of reason! So glad you're here!
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Quoting extreme236:


In all reality, it shouldn't matter if their mets or not. A lot of the supposed "mets" on here are just egotistical jerks who think they know everything. Not all of them, but a lot of them.


+1
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2768. Patrap
One Fresca and Beam for da Senior Chief..

2 Cherries
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2767. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:

They can get a good rating posting their own blogs or on others.


Thats a well,or lil known factoid
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Quoting extreme236:


In all reality, it shouldn't matter if their mets or not. A lot of the supposed "mets" on here are just egotistical jerks who think they know everything. Not all of them, but a lot of them.


I know I just didnt want to say anything

my original statement basically was that satellite imagery can suggest things that all those other maps do not see; that is not something I made up lol

I probably could have said it a little better than I did, for that I do apologize
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:

They can get a good rating posting their own blogs or on others.


I guess. If they are like me I stay in the main blog mostly. Maybe that's why I'm rated "below average"?
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Miami don't leave just because of this incident. You have to make sure, however, in the future that you know what you are talking about before you post. Many people come on this blog to see if a threat is imminent (I don't see why, this blog has too much drama).

Observe, learn, post, and everyone get along this season
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Are they moving to the new Marlins stadium.


No, they are moving somewhere in the Tampa Bay area. The place is still TBD. I hope they move to Tampa personally. I hate driving to St. Pete to catch a game.
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Wow, people. Take it to your own blogs. Be respectful or get out.

Evening Storm and Drak!

Assuming you two have looked at the latest satellite loops, is the noticeable spin associated with 93L at the mid-levels? I'd put it around 15N 69W.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Before I leave I will like to make it clear that I don't come here to "challenge" people. I might come back, but don't count on it.


This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself.

Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets.

It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol I didnt pick on anyone

what I said is true and I stand by it. I was not aware that person was a met, again its not obvious to everyone on the blog who is or is not a professional

maybe there should be an icon next to a posters name so we can tell


In all reality, it shouldn't matter if their mets or not. A lot of the supposed "mets" on here are just egotistical jerks who think they know everything. Not all of them, but a lot of them.
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FWIW, 00z NAM, Wendsday Night/Early Thurdsday Morning.

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2756. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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natives are restless tonight - a forming system tends to do that.

not much blogging going - just bashing. Common courtesy goes a long way - everyone is entitled to their own opinion.

Those who decide to "hammer" home their opinion are being bullies. No matter the age of the blogger, it isn't right to bash their opinion - after all, its not really YOUR blog.

Play nice guys - its just the beginning of the season.
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Storm,

i think that I am learning a lot from this blog..... There is no way to really predict a path until you at least have a td....correct?
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Are they moving to the new Marlins stadium.
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I thought days of our lives ended at 5:00?!?!

Anywho, just watching 93L... its definately coming along. Testing everyones patience I see. :)

Carry on... (grabs popcorn)
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Quoting Grothar:


Just standing guard on my friends, atmo!


lol I didnt pick on anyone

what I said is true and I stand by it. I was not aware that person was a met, again its not obvious to everyone on the blog who is or is not a professional

maybe there should be an icon next to a posters name so we can tell
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
93L seems to wanna focus its convection over the possible developing center the NHC mentioned at 14N 72W.
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2748. skook
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't get me wrong i think 93L is about to get its act together but, to say its Structure is Excellent without Vorticity much at all i don't differ to agree with. Sorry!



I'm pretty sure you think every wave is gonna get its act together.
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2747. pottery
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Glad to have a friendly conversation with you. Hopefully other people can do the same....

True! Thanks.
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Quoting reedzone:
A map I made on the short term look of 93Ls future.

Photobucket


Nice map but, it looks like your Sheer might be off slightly....does not reach that far West currently.....

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Quoting TampaSpin:


First of all i did not know he was 13 but, that really makes no difference on this blog!

I am surprised you didn't take your cowbell out and ring it in his face...especially since you haven't been able to use it over the last three weeks.
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2744. Patrap
Fresca and Beam..

Not too shabby,

mmmmn..ahhhhhh
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2743. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Wasn't me he picked on...


Just standing guard on my friends, atmo!
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Quoting gator23:

no it doesn't you GEESH everyone, daily. Just like the Marlins GEESHED the snot out of the Rays.


The Rays may leave St. Pete. Did anyone else see that?
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2740. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
.."The Invest's the same in a relative way, but yer older"..



And has more insurance!
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2737. JLPR2
I see the blog is a little intense tonight :\

Relax people
And hello ^^
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2736. Patrap

CAlamity..

More than 1,000 people are missing in Brazil's northeastern state of Alagoas due to flooding, Alagoas civil defense officials said.
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Quoting Grothar:


Guess, he didn't know what you do! Picked on the wrong one tonight. Yeah, friendly crowd tonight.

Wasn't me he picked on...
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Breaking News per CNN: More than 1,000 people are missing in Brazil's Alagoas state due to flooding, Alagoas civil defense officials said.
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Nothing has really develop yet, so feel free to post one and all.As someone mentioned how will we know if no one gets a chance, all though just remember when it gets rough the one's that don't know for sure need to get going.
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Quoting pottery:

OK. Much appreciated.
Glad to have a friendly conversation with you. Hopefully other people can do the same....
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Just an FYI...all the good Doc has to do is have the administrator write a script for a "highlight poster" function. When you see a poster you like, you click on their name, a post of theirs etc, then have an option to highlight that poster. At that point you could simply highlight all the posters you want to read by quickly scanning for the highlighted names. I've seen it done on several boards.

Back to L&L for now
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Welcome to weather folks...didnt you know a weathermans worst enemy is another weatherman?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.