New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2828 - 2778

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I think very few here are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I'm not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some one asked about the models earlier, there are two basics with the models, I usually forget which ones do what--

The first series of models look for the beginning of the disturbance or storm. They predict that a certain area will develop into a tropical system. The NHC, and other mets, look for agreement among several models when forecasting.

Once a tropical system forms, the models are then used to determine intensity and track. The better the information entered into the model, the more accurate the tracks. Intensity is still iffy. So the first model runs are not very accurate, the second series more so, and once they start flying in, the models become very accurate.

That's why you will see over and over again that anything on the direction of a storm that hasn't formed in basically guess work, and anything more than five days out is no better than throwing a dart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2822. Patrap
Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I did stay in a FEMA trailer 27 mth's.

Dats like staying in a Holiday Inn Xpress Kinda,..Huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself.

Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets.

It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2820. aquak9
hi zoo♥

save some for me, keeper- extra mushrooms please

that's all

go in peace, carry on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2819. leo305
it's not about waning convection, it's the fact its breathing out and getting more organized at the surface that is making the NHC boost its chances.

Remember 92L? Well this happened to it a day before it decided to explode(which is when it was ripped apart by shear right after) because it needed to develop a tight surface low, so this is doing just that!

It's ganna be an interesting one to track =D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Cape Observer - good to see you.

Hi Kman --- see you've been in and out today.



Hi there, yes just popping in as time permitted. Plus, there was no immediate threat of any significant short term development.

For that I am grateful as the slower it develops the weaker it will be when it gets in our neck of the woods.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Writing 93L off?? Seriously?? Writing this invest off?? You guys are crazy lol.. Wind shear is 5-10 knots now and ahead of the potential system and you guys write it off? Give it time!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Welcome to weather folks...didnt you know a weathermans worst enemy is another weatherman?

Hehe. True!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, here we go again :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15N 69W looks to me like where some definite rotation is starting to occur
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2812. Drakoen
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
How much longer till?


When the data comes into the site and they release it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
2811. Patrap
RGB still
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2809. gator23
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys whats get back on 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
"This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN

What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Orca -- how's the halo going?


Still shiny... sounds like I missed all the fun...



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely more spin tonight. Although convection has almost completely died off. Should be interesting to see what DMAX tonight brings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can i say ripcaster lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115104
2802. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Orca -- how's the halo going?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Right now I am favoring the GFDL track of this system which is both reasonable in intensity and track.


Seems the most reasonable and meshes with climatology although, with the SST's high and shear very low, a Cat2 would not surprise me at all at the end location. TCVN is rather interesting tonight as well. Just like starting a wave at a football game, back and forth they go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2799. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


Thanks. It is definitely the most rotation I have seen out of the system. Was a little surprised to see the NHC upgrade to 50%, but after seeing the latest satellite imagery I can't really argue against them. Despite the lack of convection, the cloud pattern is impressive. I'm leaning towards a flare up of convection tonight associated with that circulation, which could in turn help get it all the way to the surface. What is your opinion?


That sounds reasonable
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Think we should have a WU happy hour - for those who aren't old enough or don't drink -- shirley temples are a great choice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Cape Observer - good to see you.

Hi Kman --- see you've been in and out today.



Evening Zoooom :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Named storms produced in the East to central Caribbean in the last 10 years: Gustav Omar Debby Alpha Gamma Jeanne Mindy Isadore Dean(2001) Helene.
Not sure where the near-impossibility came from...

Though, this would be a smidgen earlier than those above.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
Why doesn't Dr. Masters post more often anyway?
"He could not get ba word in" with all this much chatter....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Cape Observer - good to see you.

Hi Kman --- see you've been in and out today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2793. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:


Not really...their attendance stinks and that is the main reason for the move.

dont think the Marlins stadium didnt put the pressure squarely on the Rays.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Awaiting Windsat pass and potentially and Ascat pass
How much longer till?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Good evening! Yes it appears a surface circulation is trying to form in that general vicinity.


Thanks. It is definitely the most rotation I have seen out of the system. Was a little surprised to see the NHC upgrade to 50%, but after seeing the latest satellite imagery I can't really argue against them. Despite the lack of convection, the cloud pattern is impressive. I'm leaning towards a flare up of convection tonight associated with that circulation, which could in turn help get it all the way to the surface. What is your opinion?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
2790. xcool
plz stop drama that all i asking thanks
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15671
@2724

thank you. very useful information for us non-mets.

I come to this blog for information which is not readily available to me in Jamaica. It distresses me to see the antics of many bloggers who confuse instead of helping and the pettyness of others.

Please guys it's gonna be a long season... PLAY NICE!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Now dats what I'm talkin' about.

Pass one down please...could def use one. Looking forward for the weekend to have one or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Picking on a 13 y/o is wrong. PERIOD.


The kid deserved it. IMO


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2785. Drakoen
Awaiting Windsat pass and potentially and Ascat pass
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting gator23:

I wasnt surprised by that. Miami envy, we win two world series they want one, we are building a new stadium they want one...


Not really...their attendance stinks and that is the main reason for the move.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93 L has NO CONVECTION AT ALL. It is a dead wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Before I leave I will like to make it clear that I don't come here to "challenge" people. I might come back, but don't count on it.
You don't go anywhere. Many on us enjoy and look forward to your posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the headline that will come out:

Bastardi: Even More Hurricanes Expected this Season, Three Could Hit Oil Spill

This is what he actually said:

Bastardi Ups Hurricane Season Forecast to 18-21 Storms
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Celia has the minimum central pressure of a 2 95E and 93L are poised to develop although 93L looks a little dry now. We'll see tomorrow Good Night every one
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2778. Patrap
Kmans a wise counselor for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2828 - 2778

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
72 °F
Partly Cloudy