New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Interesting...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
I kinda like Keisha..

Yup, she's a feisty one from what I hear. Good contribute to the blog, LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..




Pat I think you've finally gone off your rocker,lol...just joking(kinda);).....funniest post since the Tropical Cyclone barrier pic!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Will be interesting to see if the 00z GFS picks up on the system now that its circulation is becoming a little better defined. Still not at the surface fully, I realize that, but we can at least tell where one is trying to get to the surface. That should help the models out a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2873. Ossqss
Was the TCHP product changed in 08? I am just fishing for things that make what I see, not as bad......
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Looks like the merging of the different systems into one has begun now.
Photobucket
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2870. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
14N;69W?
IR2 LOOP


Supported by cimss 850mb vort as well
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
2869. Patrap
I kinda like Keisha..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128627
2868. leo305
Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..


=O

nvm wrong song =P that was tik tok by ke$ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Storm, what is the shear forecast for the next 7days?




vary low wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
2866. xcool


iknow about nam model
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2865. Drakoen
Not much to look at:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
2864. gator23
Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

Patrap, Sir, Master, This is the SINGLE GREATEST POST EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
For very few mets being here.....you do better at predicting storms then the experts....lol...
I think this blog is a very legitimate place to get hurricane forecasts from. Think about it, we're not all meteorologist, but we all know where to find the best maps and resources. We look places the general public isn't interested in to find information....

If you piece all of this information together by reading it you know probably just as much as any forecaster in the NHC
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
Quoting Patrap:
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo o our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..

PAHAHAHAHA!! Who needs Kesha when we got Pat! WORD...
Best post of the day fasho!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ivanhater:
00z NAM



I don't like the looks of that.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting zoomiami:
Think we should have a WU happy hour - for those who aren't old enough or don't drink -- shirley temples are a great choice!


Vodka tonic for me please! Is it two for one???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Pat, If you're still serving, please make mine a Bourbon & rocks.

All: As Walkin would say; "93L has a fever, and the only cure is more cowbell."

Let's see what she does tomorrow. I'm off, good night all.

SARCASM FLAG = ACTIVE
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00z NAM

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7 year lurker here, but I really enjoy the comments on here and have learned a lot. I would like to know which of the track models are the most accurate ones to watch?
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Hi Aqua - see you had some rain today. We were at 87 and you were at 74 -- some nice coool rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2852. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
3:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.7N 103.9W or 440 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 11.9N 106.6W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.3N 110.6W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.3N 114.5W - 95 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2851. Patrap
Wake up in the morning feeling like 93L
(Hey, what up Invest?)
Put my glasses on, Im on the GFS - Im gonna hit this Run(Lets go)
Before I log on, brush my teeth with a bottle of Capri Sun
Cause when I post for the night, I aim to be Number one
Im talking - mjo on our, toes, Blows
Trying on all our GOES,GOES
Post's blowing up our phones, phones
Drop-toping, playing our favorite cds
Pulling up to the Blog-sies
Trying to get a little bit tipsy..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128627
I'm just not feeling like this storm is going to develop. I think that day will flare up and reorganize in a few different ways before we finally get a system out of something later this week.

I think we will have development in the western gulf, but I do not think the system we are watching right now is going to develop. If that makes sense..
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
For very few mets being here.....you do better at predicting storms then the experts....lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I am not a met... I don't even pretend to be one.

I look at models and and data sheets. If people want a met... I send them to 456 or StormW. Those are the only two "proven" forecasters I have seen on here. I will make a semi educated guesstimate, and say so at the time.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What I can gather from CIMMS is that there is a few Vortices spinning around a common low center.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question: noticed this almost transparent rotation on the last frame of the below animation (right off coast of Africa). Is it not considered significant if it lacks the water vapor? The rotation itself caught my eye.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=atlantic&channel=ir
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Keep 1 eye open Kman...nothing really to prevent this from coming together except time it appears but, Mother Nature will tell us soon enough.


I am watching it like a hawk. I even sleep with one eye open. Felt like @#$% today.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think very few here are.

I can think of 6 that are active ATM.
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2843. gator23
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
"I'm not a met, but I play one in wunderground"

BAH. Everyone knows I'm no met.

and im no Mets fan.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there, yes just popping in as time permitted. Plus, there was no immediate threat of any significant short term development.

For that I am grateful as the slower it develops the weaker it will be when it gets in our neck of the woods.


Keep 1 eye open Kman...nothing really to prevent this from coming together except time it appears but, Mother Nature will tell us soon enough.
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Quoting jonandrew:
Very good advice Kman !





He will be back I am sure.
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I like xtrap myself if your within 50 to 100 miles.
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Patrap-lol-

Cane- neither am I.....lol.........
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think very few here are.


Cantore just lurks and does not comment. He has to get his info from somewhere (not TWC). LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2836. JLPR2
Quoting midgulfmom:
"This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN

What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p


I guess I sort of qualify for the wanna be met, well... not anymore, but two years ago, yeah...
I'm the smileys guy now XD LOl!
^^
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2835. 7544
theres a ull over the bahamas thats pushing all the moisture from 93l northward yes fla is going to get some effects lots rain from this but its stilll very iffy on where 93l might head
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Very good advice Kman !



Quoting kmanislander:


This blog is much like real life. It can be rough and tumble at times. Sometimes we mount a point of view that is not entirely supportable and get pounced upon. However, in the end, friends are still made and respected here. I should know for I have had a run in or two myself.

Dust yourself off and pick up the key board once more. These are lessons that will stand you in good stead later on. This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets.

It's a hobby to blog, nothing more, nothing less. This evening will be forgotten by tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2832. gator23
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:

The HWRF is out to lunch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Senior Blogger's only a little something from George Thorogood.Linkit is after 10pm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
"This blog is a mix of qualified mets, self appointed mets and wannabe mets." -KMAN

What about the anxiety-ridden neurotic Hurricane survivors/monitors...THAT'S ME! :p


Oh, forgot those LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I think very few here are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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