New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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You knew it was only a matter of time! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got my BS MET licenses from StormW Class of BS from listening and watching......dam good education for me and still learning....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting midgulfmom:
Fun 2nite ya'll..thanks..back in am-ish!
ok have a Good Evening....
See ya tomorrow sometime....

:o)
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2973. Grothar
Quoting midgulfmom:
Fun 2nite ya'll..thanks..back in am-ish!


Didn't know the Amish could use computers?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
2972. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have the Canucks? does that count?
and i got the maple leafs there great at golf
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Ryan is the only one on that list I really consider a meteorologist by my definition. StormW comes close though...


456 is a real Met.. working as a Met.
Your definition of a Met obviously has a BS in it also.
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Fun 2nite ya'll..thanks..back in am-ish!
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93L has charley part 2 written all over it IMO.....
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2967. Skyepony (Mod)
I got most my Met classes in for a BS but ventured in other directions. Made a little money on the side with it here & there.
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Quoting pottery:

I have BS, but no Met to go with it.
Pottery we all know you have a "BS" thats for sure....

Taco :o)
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I do not have a BS in meteorology, and I have no intention of becoming a meteorologist. I simply consider myself as a freelance meteorologist.
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Quoting pottery:

I have BS, but no Met to go with it.


I have the Canucks? does that count?
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Quoting Skyepony:


NOGAPS agrees..though not as bullish. The anticyclone favors it & it has much more vorticity than 93L..still needs to pull north & not hit South America.


It should be noted that if this secondary wave (which I have also been watching) does run into South America, its moisture could become entrained into 93L.
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Quoting Papagolash:


I have a BS in Meteorology, but I currently don't have a job in the field using my degree. I should still be able to call myself a Meteorologist right?
I'd call that a yes.
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Quoting pottery:

HUH!!!


yep...

Quick check ur portents....
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2958. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Their are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards?

I have BS, but no Met to go with it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I will mainly be lurking but I will still be posting blog updates. Thanks for the support.

June 21, 2010 - 11:10 PM EDT - New Invest 93L; Could Be A Problem Down The Road -



Miami, you and many of the other youngsters on here are very knowledgeable, don't get me wrong. Definitely more so than I am, that's for sure. Your enthusiasm here is refreshing to say the least. But sometimes you just try too hard to impress, rather than being selective with your input. But don't stop participating.
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2956. Grothar
Can't wait to see the blog next week. Tonight was just a practice run.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
Quoting RobertM320:


Actually, I don't think its egos. Maybe more a case of a younger generation that just ASSUMES they're equals of older, more experienced adults. Does anyone from the current generation understand the word humility?

Bottom line, if your 13 or 15 or whatever, just accept there are a lot of people here who know more than you.
Quoting StormW:


Isn't that the percentage of moisture in the atmosphere?


I thought he was referring to the size of depends i will need in a few years!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2954. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Their are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards?
you getting things backward again huh nothing a good whipping can't straighten out
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I'm sorta liking this "wunderground happy-hour" idea.

We juss hafta keep it b'tween da lines when the subject get serious. (hic)
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2952. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:

StormW
456
Haboobs
txag91met
RyanFSU makes an appearance when there is actually something half-brewed
A secret old guy
Bonus round: one other I cannot place my finger on...

Prolly leaving out a couple, too.


Ryan is the only one on that list I really consider a meteorologist by my definition. StormW comes close though...
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2951. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricanes101:


CMC could be right, that it is this feature that develops and robs energy from 93L


NOGAPS agrees..though not as bullish. The anticyclone favors it & it has much more vorticity than 93L..still needs to pull north & not hit South America.
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2949. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show..

HUH!!!
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2948. Drakoen
Quoting Orcasystems:


Their are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards?



lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Papagolash:


I have a BS in Meteorology, but I currently don't have a job in the field using my degree. I should still be able to call myself a Meteorologist right?


There are lots on here who have Meteorologist BS.... hmm do I have those backwards?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Who are they?

StormW
456
Haboobs
txag91met
RyanFSU makes an appearance when there is actually something half-brewed
A secret old guy
Bonus round: one other I cannot place my finger on...

Prolly leaving out a couple, too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The devil is in the details.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Storm, its humility not humidity :P

Seriously? PAHAHA Clever Storm...
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2942. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery ask and you shall receive.

True!
But although I asked for rain, what I really wanted was the occasional gentle drizzle. I suppose I should have been more specific.
Ah Well......
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DMin really doing its work on 93L...convection clearing out..
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Quoting Skyepony:
Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show..


CMC could be right, that it is this feature that develops and robs energy from 93L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting CypressJim08:

TY...I always get confused because when we have a named storm there are updates every three hours I think.?


6 hour updates with no warnings and 3 hour updates when there are TS/HUR watches or warnings.
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Quoting connie1976:
I wonder how many people here are actually mets.. I could say that I am....but it doesn't mean that I am....lol...


I have a BS in Meteorology, but I currently don't have a job in the field using my degree. I should still be able to call myself a Meteorologist right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2936. Skyepony (Mod)
Note fresh ASCAT pass of the wave I say should steal the show..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Change of subject but CNN has just confirmed now worst case scenario shows up to 100,000 barrels could be flowing into the gulf....this sounds about right....i wasnt buying that 10,000 or even 1,000 crap...definately got caught sleeping!
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2934. Drakoen
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ROFLOL! "Bullish" and "Humility"...? Only one drink Storm?
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Quoting Ossqss:
Was the TCHP product changed in 08? I am just fishing for things that make what I see, not as bad......

LOL!
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I have posted a quick new blog. Please comment.

Link
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Quoting pottery:
BAH!!
Looks like another swarm of rain is about to get here.
This Island is wet wet wet.
And just a couple of weeks ago it was hot hot hot.


Hush. It's been a wet one here today also.

Seems like there's alot more coming our way.

Stay dry.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.