New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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hey guys how many of you think this thing will actually develope or just be another 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3877. IKE
I don't see how...at least part of 93L avoids Haiti. I've seen turtles walk faster then it's moving.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
And it's still a wave here

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV
AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV
AL, 93, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 153N, 723W, 25, 1010, WV,
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
3875. swlavp
Well, I have been lurking for years now, and so far this year with the 2 Invests we've had I have already seen all of the different "CASTERS" you can imagine mentioned...However, I figured I would Liven it up some and ask if this thing were to get to Major Hurricane strength (Unlikely I know), What are the chances of it being an "ANNULAR" Hurricane...HeHe.....LOL
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Blog Jam
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3873. 7544
testing
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Until there is a well defined center, the intensity & track is anyone's guess. The models are flipping back and forth on every run in both those areas. Still no position from the TPC


Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
No Current Positions

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Delsol:


Here's one predcition f rom yesterday which has been exceeded.


I was erroring on the conservative side LOL
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3870. pottery
Quoting GreenMe2225:
take all the model runs being done and throw them out with the garbage. there is no coc with 93l as there is no circulation. there is no llc with 93l either. until the models hahve something to intialize on they are flawed and cannot be believed. 93l has no circulation. it is a stationary tropical wave at this time. it is showing some convection but it is not even close to spinning up.

Interesting!
Frustrating? Not to me, I love it so..........

Later all.
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3867. RJT185
thank you!!!!!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
Quoting pottery:

LOL!!
And with that in mind, I am off to work>>>>>>>>>


Lol.. insanity aint it?
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3864. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still


LOL!!
And with that in mind, I am off to work>>>>>>>>>
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3863. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
Quoting Drakoen:
Another day watching paint dry


..This is any different from the last 4 years how? lol.
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.


Where in FL do you live? I am in Ft Lauderdale and none of the news stations have even made mention on the path of this system.
Only commenting on how starting late tomorrow and Thursday we will get rain.
I find the weather forecasters down here pretty conservative with storm predictions.
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CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still

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3858. Drakoen
Another day watching paint dry
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
3857. Crawls
I hope Dr. M has an update soon. I can only imagine the # of posts if/when 93L makes it's mind up as to what it's going to do!!!
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3856. RJT185
oy! i hate checking this blog from work, half the images get blocked by our proxies, tre' annyoing. lol
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
3855. 7544
Quoting CaneWarning:


I wouldn't exactly say we are in the clear...those tracks would bring oil to our beaches.


models will be changing each run even they are confused lol imo it will shift further to the east waiting
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The system seems to spiral bands.
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3853. Delsol
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
looks like at least a 3000 post blog by tomorrow morning... Unless the Doc updates later today


Here's one predcition f rom yesterday which has been exceeded.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Looks like the Fl Peninsula is in the clear with this system. The western panhandle all the way to Texas should be concerned.


I wouldn't exactly say we are in the clear...those tracks would bring oil to our beaches.
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3851. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
its right here



That's about where I see it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
its right here

Quoting Tazmanian:
22/1145 UTC 15.5N 70.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Good Morning here are the lastest 93L mode runs



Houston, we have a problem...
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3846. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Center looks slightly further north then those models start from.


Actually...maybe slightly further east too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning here are the lastest 93L mode runs

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3844. aquak9
Quoting Walshy:


The John Hope rule. If it hasn't developed by the time it gets in the eastern Caribbean, it won't until it reaches the western Caribbean.


here ya go, twh.
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3843. IKE
Quoting cg2916:




Center looks slightly further north then those models start from.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:


No, the flow aloft is anticyclonic

Its circulation is quite broad.. The anticyclone is rather small and center beneath Hispaniola, but it's circulation extends beyond that.. It does need to condense, however.
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Quoting twhcracker:


me too. did you find out?


If it doesn't develop by the time it reaches the Eastern Caribbean, it wont do so until it reaches the Western.
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22/1145 UTC 15.5N 70.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
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3839. RJT185
Does anyone have the overlay of the strenght models?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
Quoting sailingallover:

There appears to be a spot with no convection
but what point do you actually see clouds at the SAME level in the atmosphere rotating around and what is the approximate diameter of that rotation? A circulation is a circle after all..
probably a big eye
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Quoting RJT185:



There's not much to work with, the potential is brimming and unprecedented, but the actual ingredients aren't mixing.


Thats correct with an UL anticyclone centered on top of it and deep sst's this thing should take advantage in time. Latest 12z ships run still indicates the possibility this will become a hurricane.
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3836. bjdsrq
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes they are. Just not as quickly as some would like... lol


No doubt. A society entitled to instant gratification and being raised by a TV and Xbox, people get impatient when their storms don't develop within 24 hours of being called an 'invest'.
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Quoting aquak9:
could someone give me a brief synopsis of the John Hope Rule?


me too. did you find out?
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
3834. cg2916
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Has the model consensus changed in the last 24 hours? Looks about the same with maybe one or two going more Central GOM. Which ones show a path toward Florida?


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.
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I see the feature you are talking about. It could be a little spin starting to develope or maybe just expansion.



Quoting DestinJeff:
Due south of the DR / Haiti border I see what looks like a spin ... don't know about low level, but there is an appearance there of a spin.

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3831. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
There is no surface circulation, but as of 5am, there continues to be a clearly defined Upper-level Circulation, about 100-350MB. Not quite mid-level.

No, the flow aloft is anticyclonic
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29942
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Has the model consensus changed in the last 24 hours? Looks about the same with maybe one or two going more Central GOM. Which ones show a path toward Florida?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.