New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

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A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

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Here's a map I made earlier explaining the conditions around 93L and it's short term movement, in my opinion of course..

Photobucket
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3377. xcool
Link

HERE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3375. xcool
SLIDELL LA .RIGHT BY mississippi gulf coast
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3373. EricSFL
Where do you live xcool?
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3372. xcool
TampaSpin IFIFIF HAPPEN .I;M NOT LEAVE.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:




Dang.......that better not happen...gotta say tho....the GFDL has always had a decent history of being fairly close! I sure hope its wrong this time.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3369. Levi32
93L was never expected to develop fast. It is a complex situation with a lot of heat that has to get bundled, and that process does not happen rapidly. Nothing I have seen so far was unexpected.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3368. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going!





It's not getting sheared. Shear is around it not over it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3367. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


Levi, this is going to be a complex scenario. We might possibly have two interacting systems two track.


Who knows....that would be wild. Goodnight.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going!




Coolness! :)
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Good night.
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3363. EricSFL
The GFDL has created a very "GUSTAVISH" possible track.
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Quoting Levi32:
0z CMC shows development of 93L but is just plain weird....showing a 2nd system that tries to combine with it in the gulf.


Levi, this is going to be a complex scenario. We might possibly have two interacting systems two track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like 93L is getting hit by higher Sheer unexpectedly. Looks to be the most important factor of its inabiliity to get going!



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
3360. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3359. Levi32
The CMC solution is very unlikely....2 storms won't form that close together.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3358. xcool
CMC SHOWS 2 STORMS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Consecutive storms slamming FL!
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Quoting btwntx08:

its alright lol i'll allow it too and mine :)

lol
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3355. Levi32
0z CMC shows development of 93L but is just plain weird....showing a 2nd system that tries to combine with it in the gulf.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3354. xcool


OMY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3353. xcool
GOOD JOB ROB.LOOK AT 93L GOOD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684


Larger view


Convection of both sides of 93L
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3350. Levi32
Here comes the 0z GFDL forecasting a Cat 3 in the Gulf of Mexico.

Watch everyone scream "It's alive!" now.

It was always alive....it never died today.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3349. xcool
BEST CALL BY NHC
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3347. Levi32
NHC keeps it at 50%....good call.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3345. Levi32
93L was never expected to develop rapidly. I expect gradual organization over the next couple days. I didn't expect it to be a TD today.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting btwntx08:
i'll be the one posting the TWO is that alright with ya

oops sorry saw your message too late.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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3342. xcool
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html


Ivanhater .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3341. Levi32
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I think the latest run of ecmwf only takes it up to a TS heading into the upper Tex. coast.


I know that. I was specifically talking about the aggressive runs, as I said.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
3339. xcool
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.6 70.0 295./12.0
6 15.4 70.7 323./10.6
12 16.0 71.8 297./11.9
18 16.6 72.9 297./12.3
24 17.0 74.1 290./11.6
30 17.1 75.0 281./ 8.9
36 17.6 75.8 298./ 9.7
42 18.2 76.7 307./ 9.7
48 18.7 77.6 298./10.4
54 19.2 78.6 294./10.0
60 19.8 79.4 306./ 9.8
66 20.5 80.3 307./11.0
72 20.9 81.2 299./ 9.2
78 21.5 82.2 298./11.3
84 22.2 83.1 307./10.4
90 23.0 84.0 310./11.9
96 23.6 84.9 307./10.3
102 24.3 85.8 307./11.1
108 25.0 86.7 312./10.4
114 25.5 87.3 308./ 7.5
120 26.3 87.4 349./ 7.6
126 26.9 87.7 340./ 6.2
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3338. xcool
OOZ NGP 93L IN TX
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Does anyone have a link to the long range canadian that goes out to 240 hours?
Member Since: June 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
Would be nice to get some rainfall here in Louisiana to make up for the deficit.. but only in the form of a tropical storm or lower. :P
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3333. EricSFL
Winds here in Hollywood, FL are howling tonight. Frequent lightning can be seen a few miles offshore.
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3332. xcool
ROB GET OLD OLLLL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3328. xcool

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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