New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

Share this Blog
6
+

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Billings, MT tornado (StormTeam)
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo
Billings, MT tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3478 - 3428

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr.


My bad, getting tired and taking Vicodan for pain. You are correct that current run puts a lot less low into the Gulf. Apologies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3477. xcool
;;
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3476. Levi32
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr.


Exactly why mine was the current one and his was not...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
3475. Levi32
0z ECMWF broad low in the western gulf.

Again, intensity forecasts should not be focused on right now...the models will be spread out on the intensity. We don't even have a developed system yet.


Goodnight all.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:


Wrong run again....this is the current image out so far. The one you're showing is from last night's.



Actually, both of those are June 27, 00Z ... the one xcool posted was 144 hr ... the one you posted 120 hr.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I live near the AL/FL state line about 20 miles north of the Gulf.

All I can say is yuck. Still way early, but yuck.

There is a bunch of oil in the GOM to our South and East over to Panama City.

The idea of smelling Tropical moisture mixed with oil, yuck. Our beaches will be so trashed.

The other concern is the oil that hasn't surfaced being churned up during a tropical event. What ever size it turns out to be will bad if it gets up here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3472. xcool
Levi32 i dnot know why. .thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3471. xcool
ewcm best allday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3470. Levi32
Quoting xcool:





Wrong run again....this is the current image out so far. The one you're showing is from last night's.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting lparky:


I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models?


We're always dealing with probabilities. The further into the future you're looking, the more uncertainty there is, and thus the less you can depend on the models.

If the models all seem to agree then they do so for a reason. Always take them with a pinch of salt though, especially when they're forecasting wacky fujiwara stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3467. xcool
guess soo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ivanhater:
inside word is 00z euro is not good for the gom


It can't be worse than last night's...

Although overall this puts me in a predicament, because it is well known that the EURO is a very good model, #1 by a few percent in verification over other models. But this whole Yes! a monster, no maybe not.. flip flop is really got me, not confused per say, but perplexed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:





Same deal as the others ... western tip of Cuba. Things are really beginning to line up for a GOM storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lparky:


I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models?


In my opinion, it too early to watch any given model. But when that particular set of models is arriving at the same conclusion at this stage of (non) development it is worth watching if they continue to agree. What they are saying makes sense. 93L is in a very conducive environment and heading into better ... if it hangs together (all indications are that it will) it should be a strong storm that tends north rather than west. That's where the models have it going after it develops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3463. xcool
kj
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathersp:
Or instead of argueing about the shear on maps... you can look at REAL Observations..

May I present to you... the Curacao RAOB!



And the 850-250mb vertical shear is... 15 kts!

That's a very cool chart! :) Night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3461. xcool
yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:





New EURO?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
3459. xcool
Ivanhater do you see that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
inside word is 00z euro is not good for the gom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3457. xcool
guess what rob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3456. lparky
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


When the HWRF, GDFL, UKMET, CMC and NGP are taking "something" over the non-mountainous western tip of Cuba into the GOM, that "something" having steamed over sizzling SSTs and high TCHP and TPW ... I'd say it's time to pay close attention.


I get what you are saying, is it too early to really watch models?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3455. xcool
;


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3454. xcool
WatchingThisOne .I Agree With You,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:




When the HWRF, GDFL, UKMET, CMC and NGP are taking "something" over the non-mountainous western tip of Cuba into the GOM, that "something" having steamed over sizzling SSTs and high TCHP and TPW ... I'd say it's time to pay close attention.

Edit: forgot low shear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3452. xcool
EricSFL bye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3450. EricSFL
Well good night xcool, btw, and others!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3448. xcool
btwntx08 YEP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120hrs is roughly where NOGAPS has it over Yucatan. The difference between models with regards to kts is prob based on if they think it'll go through the strait, or if it'll be over Yucatan or West Cuba at that point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have I identified the TUTT correctly in this diagram?:


Image from CIMSS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3444. xcool
SHIP 25K AT 00HR


06z BEST TRACK:

AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3443. lparky
Quoting JVGazeley:
btwntx08: If I'm reading it correctly, it goes over the Yucatan, swallows up the wave behind it in the Gulf then hits TX somewhere around Corpus Christi?

Link

and now we are considered "wishcasters" because we called Corpus! Oh, well
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3441. EricSFL
Quoting btwntx08:

wt why did it do that lol


Probably because it made landfall by then?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3440. xcool
btwntx08 ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3439. lparky
Quoting JVGazeley:
Realistically, we're too far out to make a guess about landfalls at the moment. The models show no correlation, and we don't even have a TD yet; there may yet end up being no system to make landfall.

The models are intriguing to look at though.


The nice thing about this site is I will two+ days ahead of everyone else due to the collective knowledge of this blog... LOVE IT!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3437. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Realistically, we're too far out to make a guess about landfalls at the moment. The models show no correlation, and we don't even have a TD yet; there may yet end up being no system to make landfall.

The models are intriguing to look at though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3435. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0617 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600 100623 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 71.2W 15.8N 73.5W 16.4N 75.8W 17.2N 78.2W
BAMD 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.2W 16.3N 75.1W 16.8N 76.9W
BAMM 15.0N 71.2W 15.7N 73.4W 16.3N 75.5W 17.0N 77.7W
LBAR 15.0N 71.2W 15.9N 73.4W 16.9N 75.7W 17.8N 78.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100624 0600 100625 0600 100626 0600 100627 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 80.4W 18.6N 84.2W 19.2N 87.3W 20.0N 89.9W
BAMD 17.1N 78.5W 17.5N 81.7W 18.0N 84.8W 18.3N 87.8W
BAMM 17.4N 79.6W 18.0N 83.0W 18.6N 85.9W 19.3N 88.8W
LBAR 18.6N 80.2W 20.1N 84.2W 22.1N 87.2W 24.0N 88.8W
SHIP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 93KTS
DSHP 52KTS 68KTS 82KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 68.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3434. EricSFL
Well right now I'm "eastcasting". Because I see no way for this to end up in TX, UNLESS it does not develop and gets steered by low level flow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


They said wind shear was supposed to weaken to the west, but looking at the last few frames, it looks like shear has increased.


Look at post 3404. The very northern and southern edges of the storm may be seeing 20, but the rest of the storm is in 15 headed for 10 to the west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3431. xcool
06z BEST TRACK:

AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3429. lparky
Concur! I never forecast/downcast/upcast/eastcast/westcast 'cause I am a lurker with no met education but I gotta weird feeling about Corpus this year. That is based on no scientific knowledge that I possess but they are due. BTW, Viva le Spurs!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3428. xcool
MRS ROB LOOK AT Tropical Atlantic - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3478 - 3428

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
73 °F
Mostly Cloudy