92L drenches Puerto Rico, and could develop into a TD by Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:32 PM GMT on June 19, 2010

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Invest 92L continues its steady march to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean. The storm has brought up to 4 inches of rain to Puerto Rico today, and will spread heavy rains of up to four inches over the Dominican Republic tonight and Haiti on Sunday. Rains of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake. There is no evidence of a surface circulation apparent on visible satellite imagery or surface observations. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is a large amount of dry, continental air from North America in the storm's environment. With wind shear at 30 - 40 knots today and expected to be 20 - 30 knots on Sunday, 92L is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today or Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. You can track the progress of 92L today by looking at our wundermap for the region, with weather stations turned on.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

92L could develop by Wednesday
Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, though it appears that much of the disturbance's energy is tracking almost due west, and thus may escape disruption by these islands. If 92L manages to hold together through the high wind shear, dry air, and mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it may enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots in the region near central Cuba. Some modest moistening of the atmosphere may also occur at that time, according to the latest SHIPS model run. The latest 12Z GFS model run indicates re-organization of 92L may occur by Wednesday over the waters near the Lower Florida Keys, but the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models do not show this. The obstacles that 92L must overcome to become a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico next week are significant, and I give 92L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is calling for a possible tropical depression to form in the central Caribbean on Friday.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next four days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have an offshore northerly component through Sunday, and an easterly component beginning on Monday. The resulting ocean currents should keep the oil near the coast from Alabama to Panama City, Florida, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for the period Monday - Wednesday show only weak flow, which would result in little transport of oil from its current location. The long range 5+ day outlook is uncertain, as we will have to see what Invest 92L does once it reaches the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. If the GFS model is correct, we can expect 92L to bring strong easterly winds to the oil spill location late next week, pushing the oil towards Louisiana.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument of the Deepwater Horizon oil slick from Friday, June 18, 2010.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1919. cg2916
2:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1918. PanhandleChuck
2:42 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting gator23:

That said, at the 20th day THE PAC AND ATL look like ALL of 2009! which is amazing considering how early it is!


Slow start..... But be prepared, because I believe that Mother Nature is about to tear us a new one. I hope that we don't get anything in the GOM with all of the oil out there. StormW was on last night and he said that the Caribbean will be open for business in about 6 days. Once the shear is gone, IMHO we are in for a world of hurt.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
1917. gator23
2:39 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
new blog!!!!!!!

there is nothing there? =-(
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1916. gator23
2:37 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Because we are only in the 20th day of 180 days

That said, at the 20th day THE PAC AND ATL look like ALL of 2009! which is amazing considering how early it is!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1915. gator23
2:36 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.

Mine at 54 from lung cancer that spread to his brain and body
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1914. PanhandleChuck
2:27 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting scott39:
How come the EPAC and the ATL hurricane season looks like 2009 right now?


Because we are only in the 20th day of 180 days
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
1913. scott39
2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
How come the EPAC and the ATL hurricane season looks like 2009 right now?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1912. btwntx08
2:25 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
new blog!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1911. stillwaiting
2:25 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting gator23:

I Hate Mondays...




well then you should love today because.........Its Sunday!!!!!!!!.....92L isn't finished yet IMO regeneration should occur over the next 24hrs,tonight we should se it re-activated...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1910. scott39
2:22 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


today was day 9 of invest 92L
before de-activation little over an hour ago
92L began its life fri jun 11
peaked on 13th
then slowly waxed and waned till PR
then it became an open wave
yesterday morning
and declared gone this morning
Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1909. LPStormspotter
2:20 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.


I hear ya.. mine at 52.. stinks
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
1908. RecordSeason
2:18 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
I don't have a father. Mine died seven years ago at the ripe old age of 50 due to brain cancer.

So far in life, nothing sucks worse than watching your dad die a death of madness and pain.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
1907. 7544
2:16 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
anyone have a link for the nam tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1906. Dakster
2:13 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Kearn - Your lips to mother natures ears... And if you happen to have her attention can you put in a good word for CONUS, especially Florida and GOM area?? (Not that I want anyone to get hit)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10571
1905. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:13 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting scott39:
thanks, How long have we been tracking ex92L?


today was day 9 of invest 92L
before de-activation little over an hour ago
92L began its life fri jun 11
peaked on 13th
then slowly waxed and waned till PR
then it became an open wave
yesterday morning
and declared gone this morning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1904. Kearn
2:11 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
If any models say 92L is going to become a storm/hurricane, they need to stop using 20th century pieces of junk. That thing has nowhere near enough distance to get its circulation back in order, get its bands, feeding bands, and rotation back together. I doubt this thing will even make it to Cuba before it dies off.
Member Since: May 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1903. LPStormspotter
2:08 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Hey guys I haven’t been on in a long time, but with the active season projected I’m checking in more often. Can someone give a link to the ECMWF & Euro I don’t have those models saved
Thx
Brandy
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
1902. 7544
2:07 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:
THe models are picking up on the wave near Trinidad not 92L. NAM shows a robust 92L moving into S FL on WED.


got a link jeff for the nam tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1901. scott39
2:07 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well if they deactivate 92L
iam sure it can be re-activated
its up to those that do this i guess
thanks, How long have we been tracking ex92L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1900. wunderkidcayman
2:06 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
hey Orca if ya still here can you post the link to the models
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12423
1899. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:05 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting scott39:
If it becomes an invest again, will they have to call it 92L again? That letter and # is irritation to my eyes! LOL


well if they deactivate 92L
iam sure it can be re-activated
its up to those that do this i guess
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1898. Kearn
2:05 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Nooo, FL does NOT need any type of storm in JUNE!! Really don't need one at all during any portion of the season, but I think too many here in FL are not paying attention right now to the tropics. Most are set in the "routine" of the busy season for us being July, August and Sept. This is a most interesting beginning to the season that I have ever seen.


Hahaha, I check them at every advisory!
Member Since: May 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1897. btwntx08
2:03 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting IKE:
The GFS, which the last few runs until the 18Z run yesterday, had latched on to a GOM system. Since 18Z yesterday it's dropped it.

ECMWF now latches on to one heading it toward southern Texas.

oh no lol and yea i saw it last night
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1896. scott39
2:02 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe an AOI in 24 to 36 hrs
If it becomes an invest again, will they have to call it 92L again? That letter and # is irritation to my eyes! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1895. kimoskee
2:01 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Any man can be a father. It takes someone special to be a dad. ~Author Unknown

Happy Father's Day to all those great dads!

Met Service of Jamaica website last update is from yesterday at 4pm. Usually they update at 5:00am.

June 19, 2010 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical wave moving south of Jamaica.

Comment… Tropical Wave is the centre of the Caribbean and moving northward. Tropical Wave has moved south and west of the island.

24 HOURS FORECAST
Tonight… A few thunderstorms are likely over the northeast.
Tomorrow… Scattered showers and thunderstorm mainly across central and
western parishes.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Mon… Partly cloudy morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms over most parishes.
Tue… Partly cloudy morning, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over inland areas and western parishes.
Wed.. Periods of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over central and western parishes.

Regionally… Tropical Wave moves north of the Caribbean. High Pressure dominates the western Caribbean.

rar
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1894. gator23
2:01 PM GMT on June 20, 2010

I Hate Mondays...
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1893. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning and happy Fathers Day, If ex92L comes back does it have to be called 92L again?
maybe an AOI in 24 to 36 hrs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1892. truecajun
1:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
I'm on my iPhone so I'm not going to fool with loops right now. What's up with coast of Africa?
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1891. gator23
1:59 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting NortheastGuy:

Your one good looking dude reedzone!


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum. LOL!
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1890. gator23
1:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
GREETINGS FROM MR. SUNSHINE!!!!

Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1889. NortheastGuy
1:58 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.

Your one good looking dude reedzone!
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
1888. DDR
1:57 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
It showing plenty rain to your east
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1709
1887. scott39
1:54 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Goodmorning and happy Fathers Day, If ex92L comes back does it have to be called 92L again?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1886. truecajun
1:54 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Happy fathers day to all u dads out there. So I see 92l has been yanked from the tropical lineup.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1885. gator23
1:53 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Nooo, FL does NOT need any type of storm in JUNE!! Really don't need one at all during any portion of the season, but I think too many here in FL are not paying attention right now to the tropics. Most are set in the "routine" of the busy season for us being July, August and Sept. This is a most interesting beginning to the season that I have ever seen.

As per last night: at this stage do not use models for forecast track planning purposes. They are useful to show you that "something" is going down but without a LLC specific tracks are as hard to determine as what your having for lunch next Thursday.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1884. DDR
1:52 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Thanks!
Just had a heavy shower here again.

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...

Here you go,Trinidad radar...Link
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1709
1883. Orcasystems
1:52 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting gator23:


ORCA how come your invest 92 L picutre shows a track? where did you get that?


I have about 5 different places I can get the model information from. One of the locations is still showing data. Its not unusual, just because the Invest has been deactivated.... does not mean the models are not still active.

P.S. back in 8 hours or so... I have tee times for 830 am :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1882. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:50 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...


Nice...

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/satellite_imagery/radar.aspx


I had not seen that before.
Good Morning.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
1881. gator23
1:50 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
Obama would make a decent press secretary, 'cause he's so good at lying, but he's a terrible president.

and you would make a good troll since your so annoying.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1880. Tazmanian
1:50 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
talking about spin ups is some in trying too spin up off the NC coast?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
1879. gator23
1:48 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


ORCA how come your invest 92 L picutre shows a track? where did you get that?
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1878. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:47 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1877. reedzone
1:47 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting gator23:

as much as I disagree with him on that I agree with you.


Haha, good one! Looks like they finally de-activated 92L, about time. Should start watching the WC soon. Things will light up with tropical activity soon.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1876. pottery
1:46 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Good Morning!
Happy Fathers Day to all the Moms!

An inch of rain here last night, and very dark and wet looking right now.
Good weather for ducks..........
Quoting DDR:

Happy fathers day pottery
Have you checked out our new radar as yet?It poured here this morning as well.

Thanks!
Just had a heavy shower here again.

Can you post a link to the Radar? I have not seen it...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24650
1875. Tazmanian
1:46 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
dont look now it looks like the E Pac is trying to spin up other one






i wounder if mode runs show any thing on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
1874. gator23
1:45 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.

as much as I disagree with him on that I agree with you.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1873. reedzone
1:45 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
Obama would make a decent press secretary, 'cause he's so good at lying, but he's a terrible president.


As much as I fully agree with you on this, it doesn't belong in the weather forum.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1872. FLWeatherFreak91
1:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Tampa AFD:

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO...THE DOMINANT MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS
HAS SHIFTED THE FEATURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA
MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MEX POPS
HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LATEST BASICALLY SHOWS LESS THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 30/40 POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LOW END SCATTERED 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
PERIODS. ALSO...CANNOT DISCARD SOME ISOLATED LATE MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
1871. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:43 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Quoting ImASaladTosser:
Can anybody help a kid out and tell me if that is a spin in the clouds off the coast of Africa at around 5 north?
its a emerging wave with a slight turning iam uploading the big picture there you can see it just give me a sec to upload it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
1870. RecordSeason
1:40 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Area south east of 92L may end up having a better chance of development than 92L ever had. If it stays low for about the next day to avoid shear, then drift slightly north, it should be in business.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
1869. Orcasystems
1:39 PM GMT on June 20, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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