Caribbean disturbance develops a spin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and has limited deep convection, but now has a well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery. Winds measured at NOAA buoy 42058 located at 15N 85W also showed this circulation, as the winds at the buoy switched from east to west this morning when the disturbance passed by. Surface pressures did not falling significantly at the buoy when the disturbance passed by, so this is still a very weak low pressure area. Wind shear over the disturbance has fallen to the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. An upper-level anti-cyclone appears to be developing on top of the disturbance, which should greatly aid the upper-level outflow needed to take away all the air lifted to the upper atmosphere by the deep convection near the storm's center.

The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.

The upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax further during the next two days, and I expect this system to become Tropical Depression 19 on Wednesday--Thursday at the latest. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model predicts that the system will move to a point just south of the western tip of Cuba on Friday, but dissipates the system after that.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on, though.

Gulf of Mexico
A cluster of thunderstorms associated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper levels winds are producing 30 knots of shear over this region and should prevent any development.

Alaska and Hawaii
We don't talk much about these states in my tropical blog, but Nome, Alaska had a huge mid-latitude cyclone hit them Friday. The storm brought sustained tropical storm force winds gusting to 52 mph, a 10-foot storm surge, and a pressure of 972 mb! This was in essence a Category 1 hurricane, as far as the storm surge and pressure go. Thanks to wunderphotographer Destiny, who brought this newspaper article to my attention.

Hawaii has its second tropical system of the season to be concerned with. Hawaii dodged major Hurricane Jova last week, andTropical Storm Kenneth is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Islands by the end of the week. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, and bring a few extra rain showers to the islands.

Jeff Masters

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392. Hecker
1:18 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Is that a circulation that I see SE of Miami this AM?
Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
391. gbreezegirl
1:17 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Feeling tail end of Rita effects in Pensacola/Gulf Breeze area as well. I was stunned when I saw the radar with that rotation on it. Good thing we are due for cooler air by tomorrow.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
390. herewegoagain
12:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Well, if anyone wondered what happened to the tail end of Rita, or at least the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita, it is developing off the coast of South Alabama as we speak. *sigh* Glad it is only a few miles offshore, so that it doesn't have the time or the room to develop into something more than a few thunderstorms and light winds. But there is definitely a circulation that shows up on the local radar. Just thought the die hards might want to know, since everything else seems to have settled down. :)
389. GainesvilleGator
11:50 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
It has been one MEAN hurricane season so far. Maybe the higher powers believe that we need another week of hot temps to heat up the Gulf of Mexico before sending another hurricane through. Every hurricane season there is a system in which environmental conditions seem favorable yet we end up with a fizzle out. Is this just another example of this?
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
388. timl2k5
8:41 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE E NEAR 16N74W. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIED DOWN TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE LATER THIS MORNING.
387. DocNDswamp
7:15 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
G'nite WillJax and weatherspirit...looks like we're last to leave...at least we were able to clear out the crap and end it with some positive weather discussion...time to hit the hay myself...nite all.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
386. leftyy420
7:14 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
385. WillJax
7:03 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
And indeed Doc, I did a double take. If only Longwang could make his way to the Atlantic hurricane list...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
384. WillJax
7:00 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Well, watching Stan Blobs convection earlier today, in combiniation with the anticyclone that formed above him and the very warm waters over which he was [is] hovering... I was convinced he could be a depression by 11am.

Oh well, I suppose the recon flight wouldn't have made it out there by 11am anyway. Would look into him more tonight, but must get some rest.

Good night fellow weather lovers.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
383. DocNDswamp
6:47 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
WillJax - LOL on Longwang...saw that on Monday obs. and did doubletake...saywhat??? .."as Longwang rams it's way into...

Yeah at this point, really hard to say what'll happen. I do realize I'm viewing the weakest period in the daily cycle of any trop sys.

Still see center near 18N 79W last view...Degree of convection predawn - thru midday will tell us strengthening potential. Certainly had healthy outflow developing Tuesday.

Heck I was probably more confident than any back on Mon. it would be a TD or even TS Stan by today, and now think I'm seeing it's demise.

Likely I'll be wrong.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
382. DocNDswamp
6:07 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
weatherspirit, you're right...the ULL is slowly ejecting to the ENE now and further eastward under the huge building ridge north of 30N. But what I see happening in the short term is by their relatively close proximity, and some possible dry air entrainment in say, 12-24 hours further development of want-to-be Stan is marginal.
Doc
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
381. weatherspirit
6:05 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
at least, a Blob of somethin'...
380. weatherspirit
6:05 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
NOGAPS and GFS, two of my models that I used during my Navy days, show the same thing forming...

Link
379. WillJax
5:57 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
And of course even if TD19 never develops, don't forget about our Cape Verde wave friend.

Here, check out the latest UKMET and see where that model places the wave in six days.

Yes, the East Coast...
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
378. weatherspirit
5:54 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
DocNDswamp, its being sheared all right, but there still looks to me like a low just south of Jamaica moving to the northwest. i usually don't like using the Dvorak Sat loop, but it shows the rotation better. look to the south of Jamaica. now without models, we really can't see what will happen eventually. looks like the ULL is headed almost due east now, and these are old pics, but i could just be blind too, and seeing things...

Link
377. WillJax
5:45 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Hey, where'd Stan Blob's convection go? It has all but disappeared! I suppose he did that last night, and he'll do it again tonight. Perhaps we'll see even more explosive convection to make up for this lull in activity as he goes through his cycles.

Has anyone notice there is a Typhoon Longwang?
"Well I was vacationing in Taiwan when suddenly a really powerful Longwang developed..."
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
376. bigbay
5:44 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Funny how right-wingers rip Blanco, yet 200+ died on Barbour's watch and not a peep. Also, common sense should tell you that no city can bus and shelter 100,000 people (estimated numbers in NO without cars) without Federal help. The poor people were left behind in Houston, too.
375. DocNDswamp
5:34 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
I dunno guys if we actually will have TD19 tomorrow...been studying the wv loop last 2 hrs. and our lil Stan looks to have had the lifeblood sucked out of him. That persistent upper low locked over FL is severely shearing the surface low's environment as well as it's high pressure dome. The mets on here need to take a look.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
374. weatherspirit
5:31 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
the foam that you're talking about is actually Dyna Gel. it's the same thing they use in diapers to soak up the water. it can absorb up to 20 times its weight in water. once it falls to the sea, it dissolves harmlessly in the ocean. problem is, you need a heck of a lot of planes filled to the brim with the gel to knock out a hurricane...
373. weatherspirit
5:22 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
so does anybody have the latest model runs? maybe we can actually discuss weather now...
372. weatherspirit
5:19 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
i guess they put themselves in time out...
371. DocNDswamp
5:13 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
DestinRick, Amen brother. Lot of weather evolving but kiddie chatter has hijacked the site again.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4788
370. Dawgfan
4:51 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
My area in South Georgia had the wettest June, July and August in forty years. September may end up with record dry weather with less than an inch so far. We got nineteen inches last September. This September has been the hottest since 1980. A lot of extremes going on weatherwise.

In fourteen months, there have been eight major hurricanes:
Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Emily, Katrina and Rita. That's incredible. What ever happened to the company that was trying to develop a foam to spray into tropical cyclones in order to weaken them? I saw a story about it a few years ago. I'm not making this up.
368. weatherwannabe
4:32 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
HateHurricanes yeah I knew. It's an outrage.
367. DestinRick
4:32 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Redstick -- get you some of those hip waders. You stay in here long enough tonight and you're going to need them!
I think for those actually talking weather, I agree with MandyTX...the consensus is TD19 sometime tomorrow. My guess (and it's strictly a guess) is the late afternoon update.
You know...I read all the way to this point in this blog and must admit that I found it mildly entertaining...but in a childish, sandbox sort of way. "You made it political." "No, YOU made it political." ad nauseum....*sigh*
Got news for both of you...weather is not political. It's WEATHER. Weather, last I looked, touches every corner of this planet we live on. It doesn't care if you're Republican, Democrat, aetheist, Presbyterian, Nigerian, Scientologist, Peruvian, an elephant, beetle, wombat, Caucasian, Asian, or ___________________ (fill in the blank). We have very little control over the weather, but it sure has an awful lot of control over us.
Case in point is tonight...it made some folks here nuts!Could it be the low pressure trying to get its act together to form TD19? Did the drop in pressure do something to their brains? Hmmmmmm...perhaps another scientific weirdness to blame on politics.
*Yawn* Ok...my $.0345 worth. And I guess that puts it about on value with the political BS tonight. Now all of you who have managed to elevate your ciollective blood pressures to new and dangerous heights tonight...slowly step away from your computer...walk outside...go ahead!...there's weather out there! Now...do you remember why the hell you came to WEATHER Underground in the first place????
Nighty night chil'ren.
366. weatherwannabe
4:30 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
PS I dont like NAGIN and I'd never vore for him. But I'm not from NOLA. I didn't pay muc attention to Blanco but if is anything like NAGIN O say get rid of er too.
365. HateHurricanes
4:30 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Did anybody here know that Brown still works for FEMA as a "Consultant"?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
364. Bamaman
4:29 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Goodnight Saint. Here's hoping things start getting better for you.

I'm gonna sign off myself while I'm at it. I would love to stay up and see what it looks like after the blackout but I got school tomorrow. Well I know what's going on in the morning.

Good night politica...... I mean weather watchers.
363. weatherwannabe
4:28 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Storm do you read? I just said it was a failure at all levels of govt. But BROWN is the one that got appointed to FEMA director with ZERO experince and a false resume - he was a the head of some horse club before - seriously Storm wtf? LOL

What scares the hell outta me is, who else is there in this administration that is the next BROWN.

Did you hear the man today? He was pathetic.
362. StormJunkie
4:26 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Night Saint.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
361. StormJunkie
4:25 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Wannabe, Blanco and Nagin are ok though right? Again your ignorance astounds even me. How about ask for their resignation everytime you talk about how bad Brown did. I think you would be making a great argument then. Brown already stepped up and stepped down.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
360. StormJunkie
4:22 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
lol Redstick. I am done too. Back to weather for me.

Two hours til blackout ends, bout an hour and a half til new models.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
359. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:21 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
well good night and i hope ppeople have change of heart and for the majority of the folks in south ms. where katrina hit we respect pres bush and god bless him in these trying times if anybody should be ridiculed its kathleen blanco for refusing fed assis. the day before the storm but finger pointing and name calling wont change the past, and lefty for all the english majors who criticize our typing they can get a grip lol.storm goodnight and may the peace of what ever you believe be with you and to tim send me hooked on phonics and to lefty no more uva quaterbacks brooks is killing me lol peace guys no more insults are we all sound like jeff .
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
358. weatherwannabe
4:20 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Storm are you utterly clueless? People COULD NOT GET OUT. It simply was NOT a choice for many. There were a lot of very poor and uneducated folk in NOLA. It was a failure on many levels, federal , state and local. But, the light that the NOLA debacle shown on the kind of people we have running executive agencies in this country should terrify everyone. How many MORE Browns are in this administration just waiting to really screw up royally when they are most needed?

I law there is something called caomparative negligence. it is commonly understood that in any mishap there is more than one party at fault. But, there is usually one especially egregious offender that the gets the blame. In the case of NOLA that person is justifiably Brown. And he is total weenie did you hear his whining testimony today before congress? It was pathetic.
357. StormJunkie
4:20 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
I have hope that there is a god, Saint. And I have been raised as a Christian. Again. If you had been raised in the Middle East in a Islamic extremist area, you would be looking for a way to be a martyr so that you could get your 70 virgins. It is a scary life admitting that we do not know what happens when we die, but I am a realist. For me (and most I think) to say that without a shdow of a doubt there is a heaven or afterlife would be lying.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
356. RedStick
4:20 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Thanks, Mandy. I'm running now before I stay up uselessly debating politics on a weather blog. What have I done with my life? Good night all. And, may God bless and keep you -no matter what you call Him.
355. MandyTX
4:16 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Redstick - Most people seem to think we will have TD19 sometime tomorrow.
354. RedStick
4:16 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Ooops, slipped into one of those piles......why, after days of cutting down the press coverage of the weather and calling them everything but good, can we now determine that this same press does a fine job in deciphering how this country feels?????? Disconnect much?
353. billsfaninsofla
4:16 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Tim.....supposedly a part of Phil "broke off" and heading SE.....Lefty says no worry......who knows? I'm sure you read Lefty's report
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5469
352. StormJunkie
4:15 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Some did leave wannabe because of warnings posted by many. Some we have heard from, some we have not-NolaMommy. ANd the results of what happened in NO are not just this administrations fault wannabe! Funding has been cut for years and we have know for years what would happen if a storm hit NO. To not have a proper plan was absurd. Again I tell you the problem is Left to Right Top to Bottom. The pork has to go. Wake up and get your head out of....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
351. weatherwannabe
4:13 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Storm I blame Bush for the things that the President should be blamed for, like doing adequate background checks for FEMA, Homeland Security, I don't blame a man for something he has no control over. Whatever happened to "the buck stops here". Face it there are a lot of really unhappy folks in this country and Bush's numbers aren;t getting any better. He is turning into a pariah for the GOP.

PS Stormy I am a registered republican and I voted for Bush 41 adn Regean and Dole.
350. RedStick
4:13 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Stepping around the piles.......hey, guys. So, will it be a tropical depression tomorrow??? Just looking for a little weather talk.
349. timl2k5
4:12 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
You know if the south had more Democrats, none of this would have happened.
348. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:11 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
storm its known of my business but are you a athethist if so then hats the choice you are given but dont ridicule the rest.you can not see oxygen but does it exist
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
347. weatherwannabe
4:10 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Wow Storm you are a true saint - I'm sure all those folks that were stuck in NOLA were reading your warnings here and were just too stupid to leave. I bet they all voted for Kerry too. You are invincibly ignorant.
346. StormJunkie
4:10 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
Please wannabe, you have blamed everything except for the sun flares on Bush. Some of which I agree with, but it is obvius that you are not intrested in truth only you're Bush agenda. And not taking any blame off of Brown, but the local official bare at least as much blame, and I think more, then Brown. All of it is not his fault either though, FEMA is a fialed system without proper financing and BOTH sides spend too much money on pork that could go to things like FEMA. One day you may understand.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15723
345. timl2k5
4:09 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
i tohught philipe is going to be carried away by cold front?
344. leftyy420
4:09 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
the remants of phillipw will get absprbed by a frontal boundary. that boundary might spawn a low pressure system at the tail end of the fron. thats a big maybe. now for the blob. right now its tracks appear like it would affect the western gulf or m,exico but we will know more once it actually forms
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
343. weatherwannabe
4:08 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
wow 3. You are truly a wonderkid Lefty. I didnt do a headcount but there were about 15 empty chairs - those were all for dems. reps were 95% and asked some of the most scathing questions, some even highly critical of the Bush admin. It's not the left wingers that are unhappy with this admin - its 70% of the country.
342. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:08 AM GMT on September 28, 2005
bama you are right GOD by the way the experience is right here in south ms people homeless out of work and dead its wonderful experience here. by the way i wanted to talk about the weather but people begin playing on the blogs and i wonder why GOD has become such a distasteful word and devil words like trolls are acceptable could explain our society today.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.