Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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2352. LemieT
Been watching the satellite and reading the blog for the last 3 hours or so. Surface obs. here in Barbados, at the moment it is very hot like it is in St.Lucia. It is deathly still with winds barely breathing at under 1kt. Skies are extremely clear in the south but with noticeable cirrus clouds north and east. The low level cloud motion(of which there is very little) is from the southeast as opposed to the normal east-northeast.
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sorry I ment the BAMS
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Nite all.......i am out! Got a long day tomorrow.


Oh and Go Rays :P

I knew the Braves could win when the good pitchers were starting lol

either way, you got one heck of a team
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Nite all.......i am out! Got a long day tomorrow.
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2348. xcool
lose
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2347. SLU
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 06/18/10 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 34 36 40 45 52 55
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 34 29 36 41 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 24 28 31 28 28

SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 30 29 21 25 14 21 18 16 17 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 0 -2 1 1 2 -2 0 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 273 271 273 270 279 285 275 268 257 251 248 251 228
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 155 152 150 151 154 158 159 163 164
ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 153 151 148 144 142 141 144 147 148 150 149
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10
700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 52 54 58 56 59 59 62 61 64 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 -5 -7 -6 39 42 59 67 70 59 69 58
200 MB DIV 8 7 20 0 7 19 28 17 29 34 38 51 62
LAND (KM) 590 481 369 260 153 55 56 22 -13 30 44 -20 -26
LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.7 62.7 63.8 64.8 66.8 68.8 70.6 72.2 73.8 75.3 76.9 78.2
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 112 54 103 88 87 77 82 80 50 77 89 68 86

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 27. 30.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/18/2010 00 UTC **
TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY


Conditions appear to get more favourable down the road.
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right now the only model that I am trusting is the BAMM
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2345. SLU
Getting very interesting now ....
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2344. xcool
bamms do good job
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Quoting SLU:
504

WHXX01 KWBC 180622

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0622 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600 100619 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 60.6W 16.7N 63.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.5N 69.3W

BAMD 16.1N 60.6W 16.5N 61.9W 16.8N 63.2W 17.0N 64.6W

BAMM 16.1N 60.6W 16.6N 62.7W 17.1N 64.8W 17.4N 66.8W

LBAR 16.1N 60.6W 16.3N 62.7W 16.8N 65.3W 17.2N 68.1W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100620 0600 100621 0600 100622 0600 100623 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 71.8W 17.8N 76.6W 17.9N 80.7W 17.9N 83.9W

BAMD 17.2N 66.2W 18.4N 69.1W 20.3N 72.2W 22.4N 75.2W

BAMM 17.6N 68.8W 18.3N 72.2W 19.4N 75.3W 21.1N 78.2W

LBAR 17.8N 70.9W 19.5N 75.5W 22.2N 79.0W 23.5N 81.3W

SHIP 31KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS

DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 41KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


SHIPS now up to 60mph in 5 days
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2342. Levi32
Check out the 06z BAMS and current motion (XTRAP)

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
2341. SLU
504

WHXX01 KWBC 180622

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0622 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600 100619 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 60.6W 16.7N 63.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.5N 69.3W

BAMD 16.1N 60.6W 16.5N 61.9W 16.8N 63.2W 17.0N 64.6W

BAMM 16.1N 60.6W 16.6N 62.7W 17.1N 64.8W 17.4N 66.8W

LBAR 16.1N 60.6W 16.3N 62.7W 16.8N 65.3W 17.2N 68.1W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100620 0600 100621 0600 100622 0600 100623 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 71.8W 17.8N 76.6W 17.9N 80.7W 17.9N 83.9W

BAMD 17.2N 66.2W 18.4N 69.1W 20.3N 72.2W 22.4N 75.2W

BAMM 17.6N 68.8W 18.3N 72.2W 19.4N 75.3W 21.1N 78.2W

LBAR 17.8N 70.9W 19.5N 75.5W 22.2N 79.0W 23.5N 81.3W

SHIP 31KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS

DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 41KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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I don't think that is right Hurricanes101 maybe on the 12Z plot it would be further south and maybe east
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2339. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
ECMWF comes out in a few, after that I am going to BED lol


Idk how you guys stay up to 2am every night as it is. After 10:30pm here I'm dead....can't stay up past 11 at all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
ECMWF comes out in a few, after that I am going to BED lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2337. Levi32
06:15...MCC expanding westward but starting to get smaller.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
2336. xcool
TampaSpin low shear shi;;;
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Well, seems to me that "Wanna Be Alex" has fought long and hard, and is starting to get tired. Either way, seems like everything will be ok with him in the long run. Night all. Photobucket
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2334. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 92, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 161N, 606W, 25, 1011, WV


Oh don't tell me they're just going by the Dvorak position.....that tells me nothing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
2333. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


Also a pressure at 29.86 (1011mb), which, if is accurate, is lower than the pressures of the surrounding islands, which would indicate a moving nearby, which it appears to be on radar.


yep, so we do have a surface low, seems weak, but 92L actually has something at the surface
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2332. Levi32
I'm waiting on an Aqua microwave pass scheduled for 05:44 UTC and should be up within an hour and a half of that time....or by 3:15am eastern.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
AL, 92, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 161N, 606W, 25, 1011, WV
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Seems to have lost some latitude today and the GFS wants to lift the TUTT faster. Might just find itself a better environment...

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This loop clearly shows how Sheer is dropping to the West of 92L as it advances......hummm
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2328. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
JLPR2 is it just me or did I see 7 mph / 11 km/h / from the SSW


yeah XD
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2327. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:
hmm
Caravelle, Martinique (Airport)

7 mph / 11 km/h / from the SSW



Also a pressure at 29.86 (1011mb), which, if is accurate, is lower than the pressures of the surrounding islands, which would indicate a moving nearby, which it appears to be on radar.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
JLPR2 is it just me or did I see 7 mph / 11 km/h / from the SSW
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2325. xcool
over load
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2324. GBguy88
Not that 92L is likely to stay far enough south to take advantage, but all that heat potential in the western Caribbean is very alarming. Southern Gulf and Bahamas area don't appear far behind. That's atypical for June, yes?
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atcf site picks a great time to not work lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2322. Relix
Convection is giving me a hard time to follow the actual movement of the system. It seems to move WSW based on convection but it should be moving West, maybe a nudge south? Won't be a direct impact on PR if it keeps this way though will be a significant rain event.

Also, this reminds of me of storm Fay. That was epic =P.
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2321. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


I doubt it has anything directly to do with 92L. A tropical system's warming effects are mostly in the mid-upper atmosphere. The hot weather probably has more to do with the surrounding environment that 92L is traveling through, which is very moist and warm.

Also keep in mind that SSTs near the islands are 2C above normal....and this I believe is one of your first really calm nights so far this summer, so temperatures will naturally be higher than normal if the surrounding water is.



As for 92L .. i've never seen a system battle the conditions like this in June before. If this system remains in one piece at gets into the Western Caribbean and the Gulf then it's going to be a real player especially as models are beginning to hint at development again.
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2320. JLPR2
hmm
Caravelle, Martinique (Airport)

7 mph / 11 km/h / from the SSW

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2319. Levi32
05:45...still expanding westward.

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2318. xcool
?
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2317. Levi32
Quoting SLU:


Partially but not entirely. When the sky is as clear as it is and there is no wind, the dew tends to get very heavy and the temperature normally tends to be a lot lower about (75 - 78F). You don't think his heat is actually being released by the system's intense MCS or something?

And yeah the center is not fully closed but it's looking better with each passing frame.


I doubt it has anything directly to do with 92L. A tropical system's warming effects are mostly in the mid-upper atmosphere. The hot weather probably has more to do with the surrounding environment that 92L is traveling through, which is very moist and warm.

Also keep in mind that SSTs near the islands are 2C above normal....and this I believe is one of your first really calm nights so far this summer, so temperatures will naturally be higher than normal if the surrounding water is.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
2316. xcool
OracleDeAtlantis .hot town gogo uppp
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Looking at what is missing and filling in the blanks looking at the wind barbs.....looks like a surface low is near...





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Looks like hot towers going up? Uh oh ...

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2313. xcool
hmm wowww
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this is my model plots from the (CHC) Cayman Hurricane Center my Storm Center

16.1N 62.5W
16.2N 55.0W
16.5N 67.5W
17.0N 69.1W
17.1N 71.0W
17.5N 73.1W
18.0N 75.0W
19.1N 79.0W
20.0N 80.0W
22.0N 81.0W
END OF RUN
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2311. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks for the observations. I would guess the lack of wind could partially explain the hot night. I'm seeing the center ENE of Dominica as well but it seems far from closed, and as you said no westerly winds anywhere.


Partially but not entirely. When the sky is as clear as it is and there is no wind, the dew tends to get very heavy and the temperature normally tends to be a lot lower about (75 - 78F). You don't think his heat is actually being released by the system's intense MCS or something?

And yeah the center is not fully closed but it's looking better with each passing frame.
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WoW, look at the 850mb Vorticity now....nice round ball.....the wind will be coming to the surface soom with a closed surface low...watch the Convergence come next now....its coming.



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2309. pcbhere
To Zoomiami for your google map: I have been lurking for three years and just moved from Panama City Beach to Louisville, Ky. 40245
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i predicted it 3 days ago, but no one seemed to listen.
and most likely Alex will be MUCH stronger.






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2307. xcool
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2306. Levi32
Quoting SLU:
It's 2AM in St. Lucia and i'm interrupting my sleep to check on 92L. One thing I do notice is that tonight is an unusually hot night. Steaming hot in fact. 84F which is really crazy for this time of night. Also there is virtually no wind as a result of the system to my north and no sign of westerlies. The center seems to be about 15 miles east of Dominica and about 10 miles southeast of Marie Galante and appears to be consolidating in that area as we approach the DMAX.


Thanks for the observations. I would guess the lack of wind could partially explain the hot night. I'm seeing the center ENE of Dominica as well but it seems far from closed, and as you said no westerly winds anywhere.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting Levi32:
0z HWRF 126 hours:



That is not the worst part.....that means it gets in the GOM where the dam OIL IS! OHHHH NOOOOO!
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oh will evere one ran off


good night my love
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2303. SLU
It's 2AM in St. Lucia and i'm interrupting my sleep to check on 92L. One thing I do notice is that tonight is an unusually hot night. Steaming hot in fact. 84F which is really crazy for this time of night. Also there is virtually no wind as a result of the system to my north and no sign of westerlies. The center seems to be about 15 miles east of Dominica and about 10 miles southeast of Marie Galante and appears to be consolidating in that area as we approach the DMAX.
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Quoting Grothar:


I know Levi, my pressure begins to drop around 1 AM, too! Almost similar to a diurnal effect. Just wait about 40 years, you'll know what I am talking about.

You have really done as excellent job tonight. And many others as well. I have seen graphics and images which I have never seen before. I hope you all do as well in the coming months. It is gratifying to know that so many take these storms seriously. A little levity now and then keeps things in perspective. No one was crying "Wolf" tonight, just "puppy" Congratulations to all the contributors. Well, I have to go and get my pressure back up. My diurnal max hits me about 4 AM.


Night Grothar and thanks for the laughs. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.