Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Quoting Levi32:
Ok I wanted to wait for this microwave pass but I can't do it....too tired. I'm out...goodnight all.


Night Levi. :)
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2401. xcool
Levi32 HA
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2400. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


Daggers of shear are not always visible as high clouds racing towards the system. In fact what we were just talking about, the sinking air making it hot and sticky, is also causing the high clouds to the west of 92L to evaporate. Because of this it is hard to tell how much shear is still attacking the system, but more and more outflow is expanding out the west and south sides of the MCC, so it must be less than before, possibly due to the MCC itself creating its own environment.


Ah, I'm learning new things everyday.
Thanks. :)
But wouldn't shear without the ''daggers of death'' be less damaging to a system than the one with the daggers?

Quoting Levi32:


Since 20z June 17th. It's been 11 hours going on 12 since the convection started. For comparison, the last time 92L blew up on the night of the 15th, the MCC lasted 8 hours before collapsing.


I guess this one will persist all the way to D-max, but if it is still there by late morning it may spell trouble.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Once again, 92L continues to play with our minds. Here's my history of opinions with 92L:

June 13: Should be TD 1 by 11 AM EDT next day (wrong about that). Could be TS Alex and head into the Caribbean, but would get sheared apart as it headed into Caribbean.

June 14: Should be TD 1 by 11 AM EDT next day, system losing time to become TS Alex (wrong about that, again, that's two crows!)

June 15 Evening: 92L heading into wind shear, this thing is over despite a convective burst.

I might be eating my third crow on this one, tonight I am really impressed with 92L despite the shear. This could be a system that develops in some shear (like TS Henri last year). Anyone know if shear values are dropping?


Not so sure about 92L tonight still, infrared satellite showing a lot of shear still (yes there is some outflow to the west, but its still heavily biased to the east). More evidence of shear is clearly shown by the colors of the infrared imagery, the deep red colors (higher cloud tops) are biased to the west, so there is still shear. Keeping my opinion I made on June 15 evening (hopefully not going to eat a third crow on this).
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2398. Levi32
Ok I wanted to wait for this microwave pass but I can't do it....too tired. I'm out...goodnight all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2397. xcool
92L HOLD ON
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2396. Levi32
07:15...still moving westward but this is the first frame where I have seen significant weakening of the MCC. Perhaps it will actually do what it's supposed to for once and collapse during the morning. We shall see.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting JLPR2:


Mine is up to date, try a refresh


Okay, I see what happened. Visible imagery on mine is a day old, but infrared imagery isn't. I'll try a refresh on the visible again later. Thanks :)
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2394. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:


*Also*
The convection has shrank but the hot towers persist, for how long has this convection been with 92L?
I lost count XD


Since 20z June 17th. It's been 11 hours going on 12 since the convection started. For comparison, the last time 92L blew up on the night of the 15th, the MCC lasted 8 hours before collapsing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2393. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:
Well with the floater back and after looking at the Dvorak loop I'm confused O_o

Were are the great daggers of death from the shear?
They seem to have almost vanished from existence :S


Daggers of shear are not always visible as high clouds racing towards the system. In fact what we were just talking about, the sinking air making it hot and sticky, is also causing the high clouds to the west of 92L to evaporate. Because of this it is hard to tell how much shear is still attacking the system, but more and more outflow is expanding out the west and south sides of the MCC, so it must be less than before, possibly due to the MCC itself creating its own environment.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2392. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Floater is way off though, its showing yesterday morning's sunrise over 92L.


Mine is up to date, try a refresh
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2391. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:
Well with the floater back and after looking at the Dvorak loop I'm confused O_o

Were are the great daggers of death from the shear?
They seem to have almost vanished from existence :S


*Also*
The convection has shrank but the hot towers persist, for how long has this convection been with 92L?
I lost count XD
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Quoting JLPR2:
We got our floater back XD



Floater is way off though, its showing yesterday morning's sunrise over 92L.
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2388. JLPR2
Well with the floater back and after looking at the Dvorak loop I'm confused O_o

Were are the great daggers of death from the shear?
They seem to have almost vanished from existence :S
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2387. Levi32
Quoting JLPR2:
We got our floater back XD



About time :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
Quoting SLU:


Which explains why the environment around a hurricane is so hot and sticky.


Here in central NC, last significant system to pass near was Isabel 2003. The day before she came in, it was completely clear skies, not hot or cold, and there were some cirrus clouds moving in later that day.
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2385. xcool
http://www.accuweather.com/ rader by 92l
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2384. JLPR2
We got our floater back XD

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2383. Levi32
0z ECMWF 240 hours....tropical storm in the northwest Caribbean (not from 92L).

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2382. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


I was kinda dumb for not thinking of it right off the bat lol. The weather is commonly like this ahead of hurricanes, but even disturbances like 92L can have this effect if convection is this strong.


Which explains why the environment around a hurricane is so hot and sticky.
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LOL, 92L didn't achieve the record for being the eastmost tropical storm in the Atl for June, but it sure as heck holds the record for the most eaten crows on a tropical system. If 92L keeps this up, crows will become extinct!
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2380. xcool
92l lose convection
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2379. Levi32
Quoting SLU:


I figured it was something like this but I wasn't sure of the method by which it occurs.


I was kinda dumb for not thinking of it right off the bat lol. The weather is commonly like this ahead of hurricanes, but even disturbances like 92L can have this effect if convection is this strong.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2378. JLPR2


We needs visible to be sure it is there or if it even is
XD
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2377. xcool
LOL
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2376. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Oh, sleepy as I am....I think I figured out why it's such a hot and clear night in the windwards. The convection within the MCC to the northeast is so strong that all that rising air is sinking strongly around it. That is, air rises within the thunderstorms, spreads outward as outflow, and then sinks outside the edges of the storm. Sinking air warms, and would explain the crystal clear skies and abnormally warm temperatures being reported at St. Lucia and Barbados.


I figured it was something like this but I wasn't sure of the method by which it occurs.
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2375. uplater
Quoting xcool:
92L MOVE WEST HMMM


yep. *South* West. how do it know? =)
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2374. xcool
92L MOVE WEST HMMM
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I still say that the Lat and Long is incorect I say it is a bit more south
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2372. xcool


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2371. Levi32
Oh, sleepy as I am....I think I figured out why it's such a hot and clear night in the windwards. The convection within the MCC to the northeast is so strong that all that rising air is sinking strongly around it. That is, air rises within the thunderstorms, spreads outward as outflow, and then sinks outside the edges of the storm. Sinking air warms, and would explain the crystal clear skies and abnormally warm temperatures being reported at St. Lucia and Barbados.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2370. SLU
It's normally very reliable so it might just a brief outage .. hopefully
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Development or not as the NHC says, there's going to be a good amount of rain for the northern Antilles, and perhaps spreading into Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Hopefully won't producing flooding over Hispaniola (Haiti and Dom. Rep.) after the earthquake early this year.
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2368. xcool
dam radar
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2367. uplater
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry I ment the BAMS


XTRP better still. 92L is heading right for the Caribbean. No way it tracks near PR. Doing a good job of avoiding the shear and the dry air. Let's see if the surface circulation builds in.
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2366. Levi32
Quoting SLU:
The radar seems to be down again ...


Noticed....really bad timing :S
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2364. Relix
Will be going to bed. When I wake up this could be:

A) A very strong invest.
B) Nothingness once more (70% chance!)

and aiming at:
A) Puerto Rico
B) Carribean/Hispaniola (80%)

Will leave this open and see if I eat crow =)
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Once again, 92L continues to play with our minds. Here's my history of opinions with 92L:

June 13: Should be TD 1 by 11 AM EDT next day (wrong about that). Could be TS Alex and head into the Caribbean, but would get sheared apart as it headed into Caribbean.

June 14: Should be TD 1 by 11 AM EDT next day, system losing time to become TS Alex (wrong about that, again, that's two crows!)

June 15 Evening: 92L heading into wind shear, this thing is over despite a convective burst.

I might be eating my third crow on this one, tonight I am really impressed with 92L despite the shear. This could be a system that develops in some shear (like TS Henri last year). Anyone know if shear values are dropping?
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2362. Levi32
06:45....hot towers still marching westward towards Dominica.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2361. SLU
The radar seems to be down again ...
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2360. LemieT
Quoting Levi32:


Thanks for the observations. Definitely evidence of a strong surface trough in the area.


No problem, this is likely the one of the most interesting blogs of any kind on the internet, just glad to be a part of it. I learn tons as each day passes.
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2359. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
anyway off to bed, will be interesting to see what it looks like in the morning


Cya 101.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
anyway off to bed, will be interesting to see what it looks like in the morning
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2357. xcool
Hurricanes101 haha lmao
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Quoting xcool:
ECMWF I have to throw it out the window


you throw anything out the window when it doesnt show development lol


Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2355. xcool
ECMWF I have to throw it out the window
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2354. Levi32
Not much on the 0z ECMWF through 120 hours. It does have a low in the western Caribbean SW of Jamaica, but not much with it.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2353. Levi32
Quoting LemieT:
Been watching the satellite and reading the blog for the last 3 hours or so. Surface obs. here in Barbados, at the moment it is very hot like it is in St.Lucia. It is deathly still with winds barely breathing at under 1kt. Skies are extremely clear in the south but with noticeable cirrus clouds north and east. The low level cloud motion(of which the is very little) is from the southeast as opposed to the normal east-northeast.


Thanks for the observations. Definitely evidence of a strong surface trough in the area.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26699
2352. LemieT
Been watching the satellite and reading the blog for the last 3 hours or so. Surface obs. here in Barbados, at the moment it is very hot like it is in St.Lucia. It is deathly still with winds barely breathing at under 1kt. Skies are extremely clear in the south but with noticeable cirrus clouds north and east. The low level cloud motion(of which there is very little) is from the southeast as opposed to the normal east-northeast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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