Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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2449. SLU
Quoting Xandtar:
Well as with Barbados and St. Lucia, the heat and humidity has given Dominica a real sauna feel last night. We had rain, some wind but I only woke up twice so it wasn't bad. I see I'll have to get up early to work to beat the major rainstorm, on our mountain roads you don't want to push it.


How's the weather in Dominica? According to the satellite you seem to be getting some heavy rain now.
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2447. pottery
Have not seen 456 on the blog for a day or 2. He OK??

And if anyone missed it, 456 has a Blog that is REQUIRED READING if you want to know stuff!
Most EXCELLENT.
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Yep, and now I'm off to work so I can lead to the traffic jams Pat will encounter on his travels again this morning. Although he has probably learned by now not to go that way anymore.Hpoe ya'll have a good morning. I'll be back this afternoon.
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model run

hey guys I don't know what is going on I am tring to post the image but when I push the button I put the url in but no size and the no img script but just copy this and enter
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif
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2443. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
This is true pot, but if you notice they can only handle it for about 30-45 min. at a time. Then is't back to real life....LOL
Ohh yeah, and no camplaining. I got the same room as last week that overlooks the pool.

Ahhh! Life is Good!
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2442. pottery
Quoting SLU:
There's a nice looking wave at 30W with some good looking curvature. Might be the "Trinidad low" the GFS was so bullish about yesterday.


Link

True. Seeing that now.
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I'm jealous you guys, we had 48 degrees F this morning and it climbed up to 55 by 12 noon... what a weird year we've had so far...
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2440. pottery
Trinidad now--
77F
94%
1012
Calm
So we did not feel the Heat you are talking about last night.
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This is true pot, but if you notice they can only handle it for about 30-45 min. at a time. Then is't back to real life....LOL
Ohh yeah, and no camplaining. I got the same room as last week that overlooks the pool.
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2438. SLU
There's a nice looking wave at 30W with some good looking curvature. Might be the "Trinidad low" the GFS was so bullish about yesterday.


Link
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2437. Xandtar
Well as with Barbados and St. Lucia, the heat and humidity has given Dominica a real sauna feel last night. We had rain, some wind but I only woke up twice so it wasn't bad. I see I'll have to get up early to work to beat the major rainstorm, on our mountain roads you don't want to push it.
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2435. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Biloxi, MS
79F
82% Humidity

Feels like a frickin sauna outside.

Those Nordic people pay good money for that. They lock themselves in small rooms filled with steaming rocks and stuff, to try to get what you have.
And you are complaining....

heheheh
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2434. SLU
Quoting pottery:
What are your conditions now, SLU?


morning man

Yeh well it's very calm. Absolutely no wind and very clear skies last night. Miserably hot also with the temperature still at 84F even at midnight.
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Biloxi, MS
79F
82% Humidity

Feels like a frickin sauna outside.
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2431. pottery
The Eastern Atlantic is looking 'relaxed' this morning. A wave that looked like it was going to be something special 2 days ago has faded away...

A large area of weather to the south-east of here will bring rains tomorrow, bur not as much as seemed evident yesterday.

So far, a most 'different' Season......
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2430. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Ahhh come on pot he is just enjoying the beautiful morning you are having also....LOL
Good Morning (sir)

True!
And, he is a bit Scrawny for the Pot LOL
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Ahhh come on pot he is just enjoying the beautiful morning you are having also....LOL
Good Morning (sir)
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2428. pottery
What are your conditions now, SLU?
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2427. SLU
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Here in central NC, last significant system to pass near was Isabel 2003. The day before she came in, it was completely clear skies, not hot or cold, and there were some cirrus clouds moving in later that day.


I guess this takes the old saying "the calm before the storm" to an extreme.
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2426. pottery
Dominica weather now---
Temp 75F
Humid. 94%
Wind NNE 7 mph
Press 1013 falling
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2425. pottery
Good Morning!
92L is a complete Freak Show, Man!!

Lost power here last night for several hours for no good reason.
Had an early night, so an early wake-up.
Fantastic dawn here with clear sky and birdsong.
But the Rooster in the Breadfruit tree just outside the bedroom window needs to be turned into a stew this weekend....
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Statement as of 4:49 AM AST on June 18, 2010

... Flash Flood Watch in effect from this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Puerto Rico and Virgin
Islands... including the following areas... in Puerto Rico...
central interior... Culebra... eastern interior... Mayaguez and
vicinity... north Central... Northeast... northwest... Ponce and
vicinity... San Juan and vicinity... southeast... southwest...
Vieques and western interior. In Virgin Islands... St Croix and
St. Thomas/St. John/adjacent islands.

* From this afternoon through Sunday afternoon

* an active tropical wave is forecast to move across the local
area this weekend. The leading edge of this system will begin to
affect the U.S. Virgin Islands this afternoon. These showers are
expected to move west and affect Puerto Rico through Saturday
evening. Moisture associated to this tropical wave will linger
through Sunday afternoon increasing the showers activity across
the islands. This system could produce periods of showers and
thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall. Total rainfall
accumulations through the weekend will increase the potential
for dangerous mudslides over areas of steep terrain.

* Residents and emergency management officials are urged to remain
alert to developing weather conditions... as widespread rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches... are likely with this event.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain across the watch area... which may lead to flooding. If you
are in the watch area... check your preparedness requirements...
especially if you have interests along area rivers. Keep
informed... and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed
or if a Flash Flood Warning is issued.

People in the watch area should continue to be aware of the
possibility for heavy rainfall. Avoid low lying areas... and be
careful when approaching Highway dips and underpasses. The
heavy rain could also cause mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... local TV... radio or your
cable television provider for later statements and possible
warnings.

This product... along with other weather... hydrological and
climate information... is available on the web at
http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/sju or at http://weather.Gov.
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Models take her over Haiti (if she's still there by that time).
Does it look like wind speed is increasing?
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hello anyone home
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hey stormpetrol does this seem right to you

AL, 92, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 161N, 606W, 25, 1011, WV,
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I see 92L is still mainting convection,15.4N/60.8W I see a lot of convection expanding southward.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hi florida222 glad you could post something so is it overcast now or just sunny and cold

No it's overcast and cold, the worst of both worlds :-)
Lots of low pressure systems moving through so it doesn't get a chance to warm up.
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2418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS (EP032010)
9:00 AM UTC June 18 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Blas (1000 hPa) located at 15.8N 106.7W or 240 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 108.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.0N 111.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.0N 114.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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however that wall o shear is moving North and West ElConando
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Shear is falling in its immediate vicinity however there is a wall o shear ahead of it.

I'm never up this early but I'm takin my parents and their friends to the airport
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Hi florida222 glad you could post something so is it overcast now or just sunny and cold
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2414. LemieT
Quoting Levi32:
Oh, sleepy as I am....I think I figured out why it's such a hot and clear night in the windwards. The convection within the MCC to the northeast is so strong that all that rising air is sinking strongly around it. That is, air rises within the thunderstorms, spreads outward as outflow, and then sinks outside the edges of the storm. Sinking air warms, and would explain the crystal clear skies and abnormally warm temperatures being reported at St. Lucia and Barbados.


Otherwise known as the zone of subsidence which occurs on the outer edges of organized storms. Usually the stronger the storm, the greater the zone(the proverbial "calm before the storm" effect). A short shower just passed through, now it's back to clear skies.
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Hi,
I have read this Blog since it started, never really got around to posting anything...
Used to live in FL so had my share of hurricanes, now living in Munich Germany with calmer weather :-)
But MAN it has been cold here this year, where the rest of the world had record highs we have had record lows. In the forties in June.....brrrrrr
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hello any one home
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2411. JLPR2
nice, Ascat got a clear image of Blas in the EPac



Well, I'm off to bed
Jeez 4am, this is ridiculous! LOL!
Night!
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2410. xcool


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2408. xcool
JLPR2 LMAO
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Interesting that it's sinking towards an area with less wind shear, if it went SW/SSW it would be in a lower area of shear, but not sure after the next 24 hours.
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2406. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 YOU LOVE Weather Underground HUH ...


haha! I wouldn't call it love, but yeah, I do like hanging around on the site, specially on the Wuphotos section XD
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2405. Levi32
Oh goodness there it is! Lol.

Aqua pass from 2 hours ago. Surface center of 92L appears ill-defined, if there is one.

K goodnight.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2404. xcool
JLPR2 YOU LOVE Weather Underground HUH ...
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2403. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Ok I wanted to wait for this microwave pass but I can't do it....too tired. I'm out...goodnight all.


haha! Night!
Its 3:30am here, sigh...
Why am I awake? -.-
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Quoting Levi32:
Ok I wanted to wait for this microwave pass but I can't do it....too tired. I'm out...goodnight all.


Night Levi. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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