Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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101. BDAwx
I would say that there is a little bit of a circulation with 92L at around 16N58W, but it doesnt appear to be at the surface as much. I think that 92L would have a hard time going from what it is now to a tropical cyclone with the conditions it appears to be heading into.
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The Gulf Temp here is 90 degrees. That's pretty hot for June. We normally don't see those type of temps until Aug/Sep.

Quoting cg2916:


The Caribbean is boiling! I'm surprised the GOM isn't warmer. I guess all that shear from the subtropical trough (or maybe ridge) cooled the waters down.
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Quoting StormW:
From the TCHP page:

The tropical cyclone heat potential (hereafter TCHP), is defined as a measure of the integrated vertical temperature from the sea surface to the depth of the 26C isotherm. This parameter is computed globally from the altimeter-derived vertical temperature profiles estimates in the upper ocean (Shay et al., 2000). Different methods have been developed to calculate this vertical thermal structure of the upper ocean.

OK, I get it now, its depth.
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Unbelievable....
We, Florida & Floridians have plenty to deal with already -
Our coast lines are threaten by oil from a rig that blew off the coast of LA -
We have tarballs & oil washing up on the beaches, invading our waterways - from a rig that blew up 3 states away.
The entire state & state economy is threatened by this oil disaster...
NO DRILLING OFF of FLorida's Coasts!
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah,,most in areas of Fla seems to want that.

Whats new?

LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Sure is...Trouble in the making.

Ok Senior, I don't understand that. I get that the SST's are above normal but I am having trouble understand how much?
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Quoting twhcracker:


are you in hawaii or tahiti or japan? Maybe you wont. but if you are in fla think about it a minute. how could you not.... its spewing out exxon valdez every 4 days with no stopping it in sight. I smelled it yesterday for the first time. after the first couple of weeks it was all over, people just thought there was a chance. its done. over now. for all of us. where do people think its gonna go? disperse like rush limbaugh said? and if you think i am a little excessively aggravated, wait til it DOES come to your beach. its the saddest most upsetting thing you can think of.


I can't imagine it coming to Tampa. If or when that happens I'll be very upset. I can't imagine what this will do to marine life, and property values. I wish there was an easy way to fix this, but there isn't. This is going to cost BP way more than $20 billion will all is said and done.
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Quoting StormW:


The Caribbean is boiling! I'm surprised the GOM isn't warmer. I guess all that shear from the subtropical trough (or maybe ridge) cooled the waters down.
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Quoting cg2916:


It doesn't even have a circulation.
That was my bad, i thought the lasts posts were about 92L, but they were blogging about the wave down by SA.
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Quoting StormW:
Damn Storm, that is some insanity right there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MahFL:
I want 92L to develop into a Cat 5.


No!
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Quoting cg2916:


It'll just slam into SA. I think.
Correct.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting scott39:
LOL, OMG is 92L closed or not.


It doesn't even have a circulation.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I pray we don't get those "tar goobers" on my beach:(


are you in hawaii or tahiti or japan? Maybe you wont. but if you are in fla think about it a minute. how could you not.... its spewing out exxon valdez every 4 days with no stopping it in sight. I smelled it yesterday for the first time. after the first couple of weeks it was all over, people just thought there was a chance. its done. over now. for all of us. where do people think its gonna go? disperse like rush limbaugh said? and if you think i am a little excessively aggravated, wait til it DOES come to your beach. its the saddest most upsetting thing you can think of.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It'll just slam into SA. I think.
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@Ossqss
Great piece of info!
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Quoting AllStar17:


Thank god it isn't.
Yeah. If it were to move northward into the southern Caribbean it could easily become a TS, it has a closed well defined surface circulation, favorable conditions, warm SSTs, and fairly good satellite presentation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It lacks any circulation and as soon as it passes the TUTT the convection will begin to decrease. I'm not ruling out the possibility of development but chances are very slim.


Especially since the desert lies on the other side.

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Quoting btwntx08:

not dead the tutt gave it life support and this needs to be watch as shear in carribean will be falling as it heads in the carribean


No, the point it, it's not the TUTT giving life support, it's the TUTT re-acting with it. That's not 92L, it has no convergence, just divergence.

Simply put, the TUTT isn't helping it, it just looksllike it is.
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Ex-92L is almost definitely not going to develop, but it will dump its energy into the tropics, probably over the Caribbean. The general scenario was suggested a day or two ago with the CMC: a low pressure spot in that area from the remnants of this system raining themselves out over the islands.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
I don't think governments world wide actually believe in the supposed 1 meter sea level rise forecast by 2050.

If they did believe this, then the moral thing to do would be to ban all new construction on the coasts, and ban new insurance policies, and ban FEMA paying out anything to anyone on the coast.

It is immoral to knowingly build in a high risk area and expect others to cover your losses through insurance or FEMA.

Just to put it in perspective, with that projection, Tampa Bay would be destroyed by a mere stalled front or a category 1 by about 2030 or so, due to ~1.75ft mean water level rise.

The fact that state, federal, and local governments are making no effort to relocate doomed cities such as NOLA, Tampa Bay, Miami, or Galveston proves that nobody actually believes in GW and sea level rise, much less AGW. If they did, the moral thing to do would, as stated, be to ban all new construction in those areas and relocate all the ports.

A very good point. I agree. IMO this has been a ruse on the part of politicians from the start. Just like smoking. If the Government is so concerned with people killing themselves with tobacco then why not just make it illegal. The simple answer: REVENUE!!!
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LOL, OMG is 92L closed or not.
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Yeah,,most in areas of Fla seems to want that.

Whats new?

LOL
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I want 92L to develop into a Cat 5.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, a closed surface circulation. Didn't notice that. Well regardless it isn't going to be moving into the Caribbean.



Thank god it isn't.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting NotCircumventing:
i don't understand how one message is: be prepared, and be aware. while another is: nothing to see here, folks, now move along.

of course the "area of disturbed weather" (has it been called that yet) is worth keeping an eye on ... and if that means commenting here about it, then so be it.

nobody is wishcasting that I have seen .. at least not as much as those doing so with regards to global warming.


The message is, nothing expected tropically, but keep an eye out for its remnants.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wow, a closed surface circulation. Didn't notice that. Well regardless it isn't going to be moving into the Caribbean.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Interesting

Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
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Who cares about the EP, hardly any of the storms affect land. Also they do not call them Hurricanes, they are Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific.
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Quoting helove2trac:
That is true we should always keep a watchful eye but somethings are self knowledgeable but they dont want to accept it because they are so obsessed with a storm
Obsession i think is a strong word for 99% of the bloggers on here. Are there some folks on here that are boderline overly excited/obsessed sometimes i wonder. I still dont think that it is a reason to attack these people because it is confusing to new bloggers who are reading and trying to learn.
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Quoting cg2916:
TD 2-E is not looking very good, surprised it's a TD.



TD 3-E, on the other hand, is looking very good.

img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn.jpg


TD 3-E appears to be stationary.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting illinichaser:




WOW, that's amazing. Thanks for posting. Oh by the way I've never seem such a large red pool, let alone in June.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
TD 2-E is not looking very good, surprised it's a TD.



TD 3-E, on the other hand, is looking very good.

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Quoting btwntx08:

not dead the tutt gave it life support and this needs to be watch as shear in carribean will be falling as it heads in the carribean
It lacks any circulation and as soon as it passes the TUTT the convection will begin to decrease. I'm not ruling out the possibility of development but chances are very slim.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091




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http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010167ca.jpg
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I've been interested for a couple of days in the idea of development near South America that tracks into the Caribbean. Models were in almost 100% agreement on it before, and the idea is still coming up, for example in the 06Z GFS. With shear expected to lift out and a major upward tick in MJO, it'll be interesting to see if the idea pans out.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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