Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Quoting Levi32:


It is....ex-92L is furious right now and lashing out. I am very impressed with its presentation. As I said it actually scares me to see it right now. Without the shear this would be exploding before hitting the islands.
My goodness I tought 92L was a goner this morning.He must be a true red head.LOL!!!! He is very persistant if anything.I have been reading the posts and it seems we are fixing to have to put seat belts on.The season is starting rifgt as we speak.Oh my goodness.
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Quoting Levi32:


Significant amount of moisture is still associated with the system. This is not one of those swirls that becomes 100% naked with no clouds. It will want to generate convection all the way across the Caribbean and into the gulf.



Thats what makes me think this could have another chance once it gets through this hostile shear environment.
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Quoting Levi32:


It is....ex-92L is furious right now and lashing out. I am very impressed with its presentation. As I said it actually scares me to see it right now. Without the shear this would be exploding before hitting the islands.
Looks like some convection is developing over its center (COC).

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Can't believe both ASCAT and WindSat missed 92L this morning....wanted to see how close to closed the surface circulation still was. The circulation looks better than it did yesterday.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Despite the hostile wind shear, its still got a vigorous circulation and continues to try and build convection. I understand some convection has developed due to the presence of the TUTT over the system, but its continuing to draw moisture into the region helping aid in this convective development. I will be very interested to see what survives, if anything, from our former invest once it gets through the TUTT.


Significant amount of moisture is still associated with the system. This is not one of those swirls that becomes 100% naked with no clouds. It will want to generate convection all the way across the Caribbean and into the gulf.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it appears to me that the TUTT is the one getting squeezed lol


It is....ex-92L is furious right now and lashing out. I am very impressed with its presentation. As I said it actually scares me to see it right now. Without the shear this would be exploding before hitting the islands.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting Hurricanes101:


which system is that?
92L :).
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Quoting Levi32:
Dang....I'm in love with the banding.



Despite the hostile wind shear, its still got a vigorous circulation and continues to try and build convection. I understand some convection has developed due to the presence of the TUTT over the system, but its continuing to draw moisture into the region helping aid in this convective development. I will be very interested to see what survives, if anything, from our former invest once it gets through the TUTT.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NOGAPS 12z takes the ITCZ disturbance currently off the coast of south America to the southwestern Caribbean where there it develops into a system.

NOGAPS 12z 120 Hours

NOGAPS once again has Nicaragua with a storm moving in. This has been occurring for three weeks now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which system is that?


92L, if you can believe it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Reverse Osmosis Water purification is a process of removing undesirable chemicals, materials, and biological contaminants from raw water. The goal is to produce water fit for a specific purpose. Most water is purified for human consumption (Drinking water) but water purification may also be designed for a variety of other purposes, including meeting the requirements of medical, pharmacology, chemical and industrial applications. In general the methods used include physical process such as filtration and sedimentation, biological processes such as slow sand filters or activated sludge, chemical process such as flocculation and chlorination and the use of electromagnetic radiation such as ultraviolet light.


I know that there is a lot of people that live on the gulf coast that are on this blog. This is something that everybody on the coast should know about. they have units that go under your sink. the higher quality the better. i wish i could let everybody over there know about this. any ideas?
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Quoting Levi32:
Don't look now....shear just dropped 5-10 knots over the system. Still at a hefty 30 knots over the center.



it appears to me that the TUTT is the one getting squeezed lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting Levi32:
Dang....I'm in love with the banding.



which system is that?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Don't look now....shear just dropped 5-10 knots over the system. Still at a hefty 30 knots over the center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
The animated ENSO is cool!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
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Dang....I'm in love with the banding.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting bjdsrq:


I predict in sharp increase in chaser deaths for this year. More yahoo chasers out there this year than you can imagine. I think it's due to high umemployment and more cheaply accessible real-time weather info over wireless. Most have poor planning, poor drving skills, and little or no contingency plans. Looks like this bozo in the video almost lost an eye. I recommend some skydiving goggles and helmet next time.


This is who he is and what he drives:

His Site

His Vehicle:

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#381

You wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Looks like 92E upgraded to TD 3E, then 40min later, TS Blas. According to the discussions from TD 2E, the outflow from Blas aided in the dissipation of TD 2E.
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Quoting tornadodude:
one year ago:...


I predict in sharp increase in chaser deaths for this year. More yahoo chasers out there this year than you can imagine. I think it's due to high umemployment and more cheaply accessible real-time weather info over wireless. Most have poor planning, poor drving skills, and little or no contingency plans. Looks like this bozo in the video almost lost an eye. I recommend some skydiving goggles and helmet next time.
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Quoting Relix:


Don't like how that sounds. Shouldn't 92L be well dead now?


It's just being a bugger....won't develop anytime soon but you can tell it really wants to if the shear wasn't there.

To be honest....it's very scary-looking to me. Check out all the banding. This would have absolutely taken off if the shear hadn't have interrupted its blowup the other night.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh LOL. Well the guy with blood on his cheek looked like you.

Exactly.


haha yeah someone else has told me I look kinda like him too
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NOGAPS takes it to a TD. Take a look at post 372.


Yes, it just might be a mischief-maker if it lifts up into the Caribbean after crossing South America.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
377. Relix
Quoting homelesswanderer:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
634 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010
Link

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DISPLACING A TUTT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR A
DEEPER/MOIST LAYER TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE ALSO
SUSTAINING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SATELLITE DERIVED
TPW PRODUCTS SHOW...MOISTURE IS SURGING AT A FASTER PACE THAN WHAT
THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED. AS A RESULT...THEY HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A DRY BIAS FOR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

THE TENDENCY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE SURGING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE...AND EXPECT CONVECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED AS A WELL
ORGANIZED 850-700 HPA CYCLONIC MAXIMA STREAMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE WAVE IS TO ENTER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING FIRST LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...AND ENTER EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY NOON TIME...WHEN IT WILL
COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 20-25KT
WIND SURGE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SO SQUALLY WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
NOTING POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WE ARE
GOING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.



Don't like how that sounds. Shouldn't 92L be well dead now?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
Quoting Levi32:
The ITCZ disturbance at 47W will miss the coast of French Guiana.
NOGAPS takes it to a TD. Take a look at post 372.
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Quoting tornadodude:


wasnt me :P
Oh LOL. Well the guy with blood on his cheek looked like you.

Quoting IKE:


What else is there to talk about in the Atlantic anyway? Considering what's going on in the GOM right now, it's worth following.
Exactly.
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The ITCZ disturbance at 47W will miss the coast of French Guiana.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
NOGAPS 12z takes the ITCZ disturbance currently off the coast of south America to the southwestern Caribbean where there it develops into a system.

NOGAPS 12z 120 Hours

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371. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
After 180 hours is when the GFS is garbage, I find it useful prior to that.


What else is there to talk about in the Atlantic anyway? Considering what's going on in the GOM right now, it's worth following.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You have guts kid. Great video.


wasnt me :P
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Quoting RecordSeason:
353:

Lol. Are you guys suicidal or something? That was awesome video, damn. Never seen anyone try to actually ride out the eye of a tornado before...


Wasnt me :P
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Quoting Crawls:
I was at Sam's and Home Depot today - generators and window A/C units everywhere!!! Now is the time to stock up - I know the regulars on here are probably already prepared but just wanted to mention it.


Don't forget the Tapcon anchors. I recall a major shortage of those during Charley in 2004 and it lasted for a year.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Stop right there. 138 HRS out on GFS is no better than the most wishful of wishcasts..
After 180 hours is when the GFS is garbage, I find it useful prior to that.
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Quoting tornadodude:
one year ago:

You have guts kid. Great video.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
634 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010
Link

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN...DISPLACING A TUTT NORTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR A
DEEPER/MOIST LAYER TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE ALSO
SUSTAINING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS SATELLITE DERIVED
TPW PRODUCTS SHOW...MOISTURE IS SURGING AT A FASTER PACE THAN WHAT
THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATED. AS A RESULT...THEY HAVE
BEEN SHOWING A DRY BIAS FOR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

THE TENDENCY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE SURGING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE...AND EXPECT CONVECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED AS A WELL
ORGANIZED 850-700 HPA CYCLONIC MAXIMA STREAMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE WAVE IS TO ENTER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING FIRST LIGHT ON
FRIDAY...AND ENTER EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY NOON TIME...WHEN IT WILL
COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 20-25KT
WIND SURGE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SO SQUALLY WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
NOTING POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...WE ARE
GOING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


We still have two very possible systems to deal with before the end of June...possibly even more.


I'm going to stick with regular climatology for with a normal mid-July average date for the first storm....But with these currently conditions, it may happen in early July, then the floodgate will open, but I am not so sure about June right now with the e-pac flaring up at the moment.
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The GFS has a pretty nice upper-level setup over the western Caribbean at the time that it has the Trinidad low moving into the area. The TUTT to the northeast provides and excellent outflow jet on the east side of the system, which has an upper high over top of it. The TUTT cell over the western Gulf of Mexico supplies another outflow jet to the west. This pattern is very textbook ventilation of the western Caribbean, and should it come to pass, would likely allow significant strengthening of a healthy tropical disturbance if one gets in there.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
I was at Sam's and Home Depot today - generators and window A/C units everywhere!!! Now is the time to stock up - I know the regulars on here are probably already prepared but just wanted to mention it.
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**Repost**
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Quoting stormmasterg92:
TORNADO OUTBREAK AND DERECHO LIKELY FROM IOWA INTO MINNESOTA TODAY AND A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY SOON AND POTENTIALLY A PDS ONE.


yeah, it's going to be a busy day
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TORNADO OUTBREAK AND DERECHO LIKELY FROM IOWA INTO MINNESOTA TODAY AND A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY SOON AND POTENTIALLY A PDS ONE.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 138 hours the 12z GFS develops a TD ....


Stop right there. 138 HRS out on GFS is no better than the most wishful of wishcasts..
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one year ago:

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347. StormW 12:53 PM EDT on June 17, 2010

Thanks.....Once the TUTT shifts up a bit, then another wave like 92L, even in July, will have a much better chance of development.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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