Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Should eventually die down again.
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Maybe it has Fay mentality, where it wants to be the opposite of a fish storm wait till is smack over the center of PR and then it will become a depression
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Quoting AllStar17:


I don't see it. The data there is old.


Yeah they're old (position, comp models outputs) but they are back. lol they wasnt there this morning ^^
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Are there new models showing the track?
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It's almost laughable how much ex-92L's center has tightened up this afternoon. The exact center was not pinpointable this morning.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
Quoting all4hurricanes:

boring or accurate? nothing has developed in a while maybe it's just right.
More like boring, even if there is a CAT 5 out there it looks like a TD on the model.
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594. JLPR2
I would die laughing if suddenly 92L manages to reach TD status, really, call an ambulance if that happens XD
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Drake, didn't Charlie come from that same location?


The depression that formed Charlie came in around 11N over the southern Lesser Antilles
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
UKMET? Really? Haven't seen the UKMET develop something in a while, could be because I never use it, the UKMET is very boring and dull.

boring or accurate? nothing has developed in a while maybe it's just right.
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Just looked at Vorticity at all levels on 92L and its still stacked dam good...WOW! Great Divergence but, no Convergence...!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting CaribBoy:
Good afternoon

I see our cute Karen is looking good. Back to yellow... back on the WU page... and with new models guidance. Well.. definitely a fighter.

Otherwise we are begining to feel its effect here (Leeward islands) with clouds coming from a more northerly direction. It's also pretty gusty (not too strong though) with fairly rough sea. Well, we shall see what happen.

I'm back from the beach and i can tell you it's very warm!


I don't see it. The data there is old.
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Quoting Levi32:


Good luck finding it past 48 hours too lol. I have it to 120 on the Accuweather pro site. This trough gets much more amplified by 168.

LOL, still haven't bought the Accuweather pro thing but I think I will.
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Good afternoon

I see our cute Karen (lol of course I'm speaking about 92L) is looking good. Back to yellow... back on the WU page... and with new models guidance. Well.. definitely a fighter.

Otherwise we are begining to feel its effect here (Leeward islands) with clouds coming from a more northerly direction. It's also pretty gusty (not too strong though) with fairly rough sea. Well, we shall see what happen.

I'm back from the beach and i can tell you it's very warm!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6164
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
UKMET? Really? Haven't seen the UKMET develop something in a while, could be because I never use it, the UKMET is very boring and dull.


Good luck finding it past 48 hours too lol. I have it to 120 on the Accuweather pro site. This trough gets much more amplified by 168.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601


hmmmm ECMWF showing that are starting to develop by next Wednesday by the Islands
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FYI here is the circulation before it went under the convection, this was at 10:42 AM EST.
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Manatee and Hardee Counties in FL
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Link
Center is almost covered with thunderstorms.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Persistent little thing...



Geez....managed to drag a cluster directly over the center, which is now hidden underneath.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
Quoting Levi32:


He showed the UKMET this morning which keeps it very much alive by the time it gets to the gulf. He is also keeping an eye on it for possible trouble. He mentioned the pattern of the ridge over the SE US. Tropical trouble likes to brew south of ridges in the tropics.
UKMET? Really? Haven't seen the UKMET develop something in a while, could be because I never use it, the UKMET is very boring and dull.
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I've spent 4 years on this blog and 5 years watching these CV waves. A Strong CV Wave WILL NOT DIE until it either is swallowed by heavy SAL or hits land. These things are very unpredictible and there has been many a case where they re-form to everyones dismay. August 91L of 2007 is one that I remember fondly, It was even a joke the year after. This one I bet will too.
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578. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


He showed the UKMET this morning which keeps it very much alive by the time it gets to the gulf. He is also keeping an eye on it for possible trouble. He mentioned the pattern of the ridge over the SE US. Tropical trouble likes to brew south of ridges in the tropics.


Thanks.
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Station 41101 - East of Martinique
Terms of Use Currently selected station
Stations with recent data
Stations with no data in last 8 hours
(24 hours for tsunami stations) Disclaimer


Owned and maintained by Meteo France
Buoy
14.600 N 56.201 W (14°36'0" N 56°12'2" W)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 41101 as of
1700 GMT on 06/17/2010:
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 93.4 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure



Data from this station are not quality controlled by NDBC

Previous observations
MM DD TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL
psu VIS
nmi TIDE
ft
06 17 1600 SE 8.9 - 5.9 8 - - 29.93 +0.01 83.5 84.0 76.8 - - -
06 17 1500 SE 11.1 - 6.6 8 - - 29.93 +0.01 83.5 84.0 76.8 - - -
06 17 1100 S 7.0 - 6.6 8 - - 29.89 +0.01 81.7 83.5 76.6 - - -
06 17 1000 SSE 1.9 - 5.6 8 - - 29.89 +0.02 82.0 83.7 76.3 - - -
06 17 0900 SE 1.9 - 5.2 8 - - 29.88 +0.00 82.0 83.5 75.9 - - -
06 17 0800 - 0.0 - 5.9 8 - - 29.88 -0.02 82.2 83.8 77.0 - - -
06 17 0700 - 0.0 - 5.2 7 - - 29.87 -0.05 81.5 83.8 76.8 - - -
06 17 0500 - 18.1 - 2.3 4 - - 27.65 -0.01 61.5 65.3 57.9 - - -
06 16 2300 NE 11.1 - 5.2 7 - - 29.92 +0.01 83.5 84.4 77.2 - - -
06 16 2200 ENE 11.1 - 4.9 7 - - 29.92 -0.01 83.3 84.6 76.8 - - -
06 16 2100 NE 11.1 - 4.9 7 - - 29.91 -0.02 83.8 84.7 76.1 - - -
06 16 1800 ENE 12.0 - 4.6 6 - - 29.94
Significant drop in pressure
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Persistent little thing...

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Quoting IKE:


Levi...what does Bastardi say, if anything, about 92L, without posting his paid sight thoughts? Does he mention it getting in the GOM?


He showed the UKMET this morning which keeps it very much alive by the time it gets to the gulf. He is also keeping an eye on it for possible trouble. He mentioned the pattern of the ridge over the SE US. Tropical trouble likes to brew south of ridges in the tropics.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
Quoting Drakoen:
Disturbance south of 92L should get tagged 93L:

I agree but they are not going to do due to its proximity to land.
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572. unf97
I'll be curious to see the latest upper level data, but based on convection trying to fire near the LLC of ex-92L, it seems that the shear may be on the decrease.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Disturbance south of 92L should get tagged 93L:



Should....but somehow I doubt they will given the fact that it is guaranteed to run into Guyana/Venezuela. It could be a problem if it emerges in the central Caribbean after that though so it would be nice to see an invest after that WindSat pass this morning.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
569. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


LOL


Levi...what does Bastardi say, if anything, about 92L, without posting his paid sight thoughts? Does he mention it getting in the GOM?
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92L must be the rebirth of Freddy.....has to be.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Disturbance south of 92L should get tagged 93L:

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Quoting IKE:
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 35KTS 49KTS
DSHP 24KTS 26KTS 30KTS 44KTS


Maybe there is a shot?


I really think there is if the wave can survive the shear.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100617 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100617 1800 100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 61.5W 17.1N 64.4W 17.3N 67.2W
BAMD 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 59.7W 16.9N 61.0W 17.1N 62.4W
BAMM 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.7W 17.0N 62.8W 17.2N 64.8W
LBAR 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.8W 17.1N 63.5W 17.7N 66.2W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100619 1800 100620 1800 100621 1800 100622 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 70.1W 18.2N 75.5W 18.5N 80.1W 18.5N 84.4W
BAMD 17.3N 63.8W 17.8N 67.1W 19.2N 69.9W 20.7N 72.5W
BAMM 17.4N 66.9W 17.9N 71.0W 18.6N 74.3W 19.5N 77.2W
LBAR 18.3N 69.1W 19.9N 74.1W 22.1N 77.3W 23.1N 78.9W
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 35KTS 49KTS
DSHP 24KTS 26KTS 30KTS 44KTS


LOL
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
Quoting TampaSpin:
I can't believe old 92L's presentation and how well it is doing in the Sheer...amazing.


I can't believe it either- when the shear relaxes again, I think it has a good shot at becoming Alex, considering how well it looks with over 50 knots of shear.

-Snowlover123
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562. IKE
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 35KTS 49KTS
DSHP 24KTS 26KTS 30KTS 44KTS


Maybe there is a shot?
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Yeah shut down all operations and run like hell!

Quoting Patrap:
BP has a response plan to deal with a Hurricane in the GOM..

Phew..!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100617 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100617 1800 100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 61.5W 17.1N 64.4W 17.3N 67.2W
BAMD 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 59.7W 16.9N 61.0W 17.1N 62.4W
BAMM 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.7W 17.0N 62.8W 17.2N 64.8W
LBAR 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.8W 17.1N 63.5W 17.7N 66.2W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100619 1800 100620 1800 100621 1800 100622 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 70.1W 18.2N 75.5W 18.5N 80.1W 18.5N 84.4W
BAMD 17.3N 63.8W 17.8N 67.1W 19.2N 69.9W 20.7N 72.5W
BAMM 17.4N 66.9W 17.9N 71.0W 18.6N 74.3W 19.5N 77.2W
LBAR 18.3N 69.1W 19.9N 74.1W 22.1N 77.3W 23.1N 78.9W
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 35KTS 49KTS
DSHP 24KTS 26KTS 30KTS 44KTS


Wow ships strenghtens it quite a bit at the end of the run
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Yeah Tampa... kinda funny considering the shear. But it has been a pretty impressive wave ever since emerging off Africa.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Ok, the 17:45 low cloud product for the atlantic is out, and that looks more and more like a TS imbedded in the ITCZ off SA coast. What is that, 48 west?

Is that the one you said is going to come north some and "fujiwara" in the caribbean?


http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=atlantic&channel=lc


It has a very nice low-level circulation for its latitude, but cannot be designated a tropical cyclone without evidence of a tightening, closed circulation. Thunderstorm cloud tops have also been warming with the system during the past few hours. Systems that far south usually have a problem getting a well-defined enough circulation to get classified due to little coriolis force.

This is really amazing though seeing these waves trying to pop one after the other out in the middle of the Atlantic which is usually a God-forsaken place for tropical disturbances in June.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26601
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I can't believe old 92L's presentation and how well it is doing in the Sheer...amazing.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100617 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100617 1800 100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 61.5W 17.1N 64.4W 17.3N 67.2W
BAMD 16.0N 58.5W 16.5N 59.7W 16.9N 61.0W 17.1N 62.4W
BAMM 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.7W 17.0N 62.8W 17.2N 64.8W
LBAR 16.0N 58.5W 16.4N 60.8W 17.1N 63.5W 17.7N 66.2W
SHIP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS
DSHP 25KTS 23KTS 22KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100619 1800 100620 1800 100621 1800 100622 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 70.1W 18.2N 75.5W 18.5N 80.1W 18.5N 84.4W
BAMD 17.3N 63.8W 17.8N 67.1W 19.2N 69.9W 20.7N 72.5W
BAMM 17.4N 66.9W 17.9N 71.0W 18.6N 74.3W 19.5N 77.2W
LBAR 18.3N 69.1W 19.9N 74.1W 22.1N 77.3W 23.1N 78.9W
SHIP 24KTS 26KTS 35KTS 49KTS
DSHP 24KTS 26KTS 30KTS 44KTS
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ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Image made by cyclonekid
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AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 585W, 25, 1012, WV

Still an invest and pressure down by 1mb, possibly due to increase in convection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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