Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Barely covered:

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ECMWF 240 hours....tropical storm making landfall in the eastern Yucatan.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
A new yellow circle on the EPAC TWO. It looks like models pick up on this too.
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Thanks.. seems the overall size has tripled from a couple days ago.
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The 0 percent yellow circle of DOOM is back, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
696. unf97
Quoting Levi32:


If you wanna be picky....it's on the edge. These are the exact coordinates.

The low-level swirl which we know is well-defined is no longer visible, which means it is hidden, and the only thing that can hide it is convection. It's mostly covered, but just barely.



Yep, Levi, the convection has for the moment hidden the low level swirl we have been tracking. That may indicate that shear may be decreasing, but we won't know for certain until the new data comes in later.
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Quoting RCThunder:
The 0 percent chance - is that for formation of a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours? Does that leave the window open for past 48 hours?


as of now yes it does
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694. xcool
Drakoen lol
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The 0 percent chance - is that for formation of a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours? Does that leave the window open for past 48 hours?
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Quoting tornadodude:


sounds like life and politics


thats why i stay behind the scenes 98% of the time until we have actual severe wx or tropical wx to discuss...lol
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Some of you might remember my post yesterday, when I said that 92L would most likely be around by friday. I am not trusting that shear map where is saying 50MPH winds. I have a feeling that this wave will travel just south of that high shear. Again this is only my opinion I might be wrong.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Here we go with the frame by frame again... haven't learned our lessen yet LOL


The only reason I do it is because I like watching tropical cyclone MCCs develop. They are fascinating. I know very well about persistence. You saw me saying it over and over again the other night that we needed 6+ hours and then some to make a significant difference with that MCC.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Drakoen:
Here we go with the frame by frame again... haven't learned our lessen yet LOL
LMAO.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you posted the 0Z that is why
Oops. Well since the time stamp in the bottom was the same.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting miamiamiga:


hmmm. if you line up the 18z coordinates with the blow up, you see that they have the center west of the convection...so I'm with Patrap on this one...


If you wanna be picky....it's on the edge. These are the exact coordinates.

The low-level swirl which we know is well-defined is no longer visible, which means it is hidden, and the only thing that can hide it is convection. It's mostly covered, but just barely.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Radar
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Here we go with the frame by frame again... haven't learned our lessen yet LOL
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Quoting Levi32:


That's farther north :P

I do get the sun to set for only 3-4 hours though. Sets in the northwest rises in the northeast.
Oh yeah you're right, Homer is in southern Alaska. Well that's pretty cool too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see it...

ECMWF 12z 216 Hours


you posted the 0Z that is why
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Quoting watchingnva:


i thought so....gotta love some of the uneducated/full of themselves people who share their 2 cents on here...


sounds like life and politics
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Quoting Levi32:


Alright alright....still hard to explain why the SSD floater went down.

Google Chrome won't load the FTP site that's why I'm a little in the dark.

The floater went down? That is hard to explain. Maybe they were in the process of declassification when it started to fire up again.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF 216 hours....tropical depression in the western Caribbean....nothing much to the east with the wave that came over the windwards, or 92L for that matter.

I don't see it...

ECMWF 12z 216 Hours
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Levi32:
LLC is now hidden under convection, but most of the convection remains east of the center.


hmmm. if you line up the 18z coordinates with the blow up, you see that they have the center west of the convection...so I'm with Patrap on this one...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Speaking of darkness (lol) don't you have 3 months of continuous darkness and then 3 months of continuous sunlight?


That's farther north :P

I do get the sun to set for only 3-4 hours though. Sets in the northwest rises in the northeast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Thanx for the imagery..

I said the opposite as Im tired of loading imagery.

LOL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Hurricanes101:


wow where did that come from?


that...was a continuation of my side of the conversation i was having with tornadodude...that is all...lol

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TCFP shear map

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12z ECMWF 216 hours....tropical depression in the western Caribbean....nothing much to the east with the wave that came over the windwards, or 92L for that matter.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Lightning being picked up by Barbados..

Red are CG and Yellow is CC
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Quoting Levi32:


Alright alright....still hard to explain why the SSD floater went down.

Google Chrome won't load the FTP site that's why I'm a little in the dark.
Speaking of darkness (lol) don't you have 3 months of continuous darkness and then 3 months of continuous sunlight?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
671. xcool
oh 92l dirty dog not die
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92L Caribbean - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Not so Hilarious if you line in Haiti.


They were going to get heavy convection and rainfall regardless of how organized the system was, but yeah, you're right.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:
Hilarious...

18:45...





Not so Hilarious if you line in Haiti.
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Quoting watchingnva:


i thought so....gotta love some of the uneducated/full of themselves people who share their 2 cents on here...


wow where did that come from?
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Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The fpt site has something for 12z:

AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 585W, 25, 1012, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,


Alright alright....still hard to explain why the SSD floater went down.

Google Chrome won't load the FTP site that's why I'm a little in the dark.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
665. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is being enhanced by the diffluent flow aloft to the east of the TUTT axis.


yes, but shouldn't it be like blowing away faster?
40-50kts of shear is a lot
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8690
92L - still defying climatology and models...that's why NHC has a near 0% chance circle on it. They don't have full confidence in either, and believe it has a "feel" that requires a living being to sense, just no model data to support it. Sometimes it pays to look out the windshield and not drive the car staring at the dashboard displays. SW jog into lower shear and hot SSTs and maybe the models will need to be revised...
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Quoting tornadodude:


definitely called him a bozo, and he is by far one of the most intelligent and well prepared storm chasers out there. :P


i thought so....gotta love some of the uneducated/full of themselves people who share their 2 cents on here...
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Quoting nolajet:


With a 0% chance of developing, which seems strange to make a circle for. Or are they keeping the circle going for after 48 hours to reassess the odds of it attempting to develop?


Bingo... 0% chance = 0 - 4% chance of development sometime in the next 48 hours. Not likely, but something to watch...
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Quoting Levi32:


This one is even more likely to collapse early than the other one was.
Yeah.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Levi32:


I guess....just weird how every product associated with the invest disappeared at 12z. The SSD floater being deactivated especially is a good indication that something "ended".

The fpt site has something for 12z:

AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 585W, 25, 1012, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0,
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You can track the center with this manual loop
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Quoting JLPR2:
This is ridiculous, for some reason I'm thinking that the CIMMS shear map is lying, no way convection could hold on like this under 50Kts of shear

It is being enhanced by the diffluent flow aloft to the east of the TUTT axis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
LLC is now hidden under convection, but most of the convection remains east of the center.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Patrap:
The convection is far removed from the center.


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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:24 AM EDT on June 17, 2010

Thanks Dr. M. If you make the analog comparison to 1998 in terms of potential conditions for 2010, interesting to note the similar, higher, trajectories of several of the storms that year to 92L (albeit with a 2 month formation period difference as 92L basically took an early season Cape Verde track) and several storms that curved out to sea that year also. The ultimate postion of the A-B high during the peak months this year will be the key factor; if we get a large number of storms this year, hopefully we will see lots of fish storms along with the landfalling ones as the high shifts.


Yes indeed, the idea of "Fish Storms" is a very valid thought. The analogs certainly support the potential for a congregation of tracks recurving off shore. The very warm waters should support an active Cape Verde season this year. As we move toward the heart of the season and the wave track lifts north up the African Coast, this early development will have a better chance of interacting with the Mid-Atlantic Trof even if in a somewhat weak state this year. There should also be a couple of bursting cycles of storms timed with the favorable MJO phase that could alter steering patterns within the storm clusters. The problem is the sheer number of storms. Even if you allow for a great year with the current forecast parameters and 1/3 to 1/2 of the storms recurve, and you settle on say 21 storms, that leaves 10-14 storms to potentially wreak havoc. Certainly a season to be very wary of and as prepared as possible.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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