Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Quoting ElConando:
Could it be that 92l is surviving on sst's alone?
They say a man can live for 35 days with no food, as long as he has water...
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Ive got a bad "feeling" about 92L getting in the GOM! I hope not, but it looks like 92L is very determined to have something left when it jumps in the GOM!
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Quoting Levi32:


The hot SSTs are definitely helping. I noted a couple days ago how 92L could produce no convection after leaving the ITCZ until it moved past 46W over warmer waters, after which point it blew up and has sustained decent convection, sheared though it may be, ever since.

Land interaction will disrupt the circulation of any tropical system of any intensity, but in general weak tropical disturbances are not necessarily as ripped up as full-blown tropical cyclones are from moving over large, mountainous islands such as Hispaniola, Cuba, and landmasses like the Yucatan. The reason is because mature tropical cyclones have a well-developed core, and once that is severely disrupted, the focus of energy within the storm gets distorted, and it can take a very long time for the storm to get that core back.

A tropical disturbance, depression, or even a weak tropical storm, however, usually don't have a real "core" to speak of, and thus nothing major to disrupt aside from the winds circulating around the center, which can get deflected and blocked by mountains. Thus, weaker systems such as these are much better survivors of treks across land masses and islands. Tropical disturbances can survive for quite a long time and still regenerate somewhere else if given the chance.


A reason fay was able for strengthen into a TS over Hispaniola.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNC041-172030-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100617T2030Z/
DOUGLAS MN-
316 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BRANDON...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER STORM WITH
INCREASING ROTATION TO THE SOUTH...NEAR BRANDON...WHICH IS MOVING
NORTH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARLOS...MILTONA...ROSE CITY AND LEAF VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 9520 4609 9514 4604 9515 4584 9547
4584 9568 4587 9577 4609 9578 4611 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 212DEG 38KT 4607 9556

$$

TRH/MTF







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The synopsis from the San Juan NWS is interesting about the TUTT and High Pressure.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING ALMOST
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND SPREADS NORTH
OVER THE LOCAL REGION.

Link
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Quoting ElConando:
Could it be that 92l is surviving on sst's alone?


Imagine what it would be like if Mr. Shear hadn't gotten in the way!
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Quoting scott39:
Is the heat of the water helping it stay alive? Also does land really do anything to an Invest compared to what it would do to a TC?


The hot SSTs are definitely helping. I noted a couple days ago how 92L could produce no convection after leaving the ITCZ until it moved past 46W over warmer waters, after which point it blew up and has sustained decent convection, sheared though it may be, ever since.

Land interaction will disrupt the circulation of any tropical system of any intensity, but in general weak tropical disturbances are not necessarily as ripped up as full-blown tropical cyclones are from moving over large, mountainous islands such as Hispaniola, Cuba, and landmasses like the Yucatan. The reason is because mature tropical cyclones have a well-developed core, and once that is severely disrupted, the focus of energy within the storm gets distorted, and it can take a very long time for the storm to get that core back.

A tropical disturbance, depression, or even a weak tropical storm, however, usually don't have a real "core" to speak of, and thus nothing major to disrupt aside from the winds circulating around the center, which can get deflected and blocked by mountains. Thus, weaker systems such as these are much better survivors of treks across land masses and islands. Tropical disturbances can survive for quite a long time and still regenerate somewhere else if given the chance. Their focus of energy is able to simply resume where it left off after getting back over water, in most cases.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
845. xcool
Active hurricane season predicted

Our latest forecast confirms the North Atlantic tropical storm season looks set to be active this year.



The Met Office prediction of 20 tropical storms between July and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27, is well above the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is a measure of the storm lifetimes and intensities as well as total numbers over a season. This year’s most likely ACE index is 204, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — this is again well above the 1990–2005 average of 131.

This would make it one of the most active tropical storm seasons on record. In the last 40 years, only 2005 has seen more storms in the July to November period with 25 recorded, and only three seasons (1995, 2004 and 2005) have recorded a higher ACE index than 204.

For the past three years, the Met Office forecast has given good indication of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008.

Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant on climate change at the Met Office said: “North Atlantic tropical storms affect us all through fluctuating oil, food and insurance markets. The Met Office forecast has demonstrated its benefits over recent years through the accuracy of its predictions.”

This year the Met Office has moved to a new prediction system called GloSea4. The new generation model has better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storms and hurricanes to form, which should further improve the accuracy of the forecast.

The forecast also uses information from the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

One of the key indicators for a tropical storm season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and, remotely, conditions in the North Atlantic.

Therefore, it is vital to be able to accurately predict the ENSO cycle and GloSea4 has shown good skill in such predictions.

Forecasts and background information on tropical storms can be found on our tropical cyclones pages.

Our Climate Services for Reinsurance provide expert advice on tropical storms.








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Quoting stillwaiting:
have feeling 92L is going to "blow-up" on us tonight,with slow regeneration begining and tomorrow the near 0% chance of developing people will have no choice but up their percentages,lol....


it defaintely will, the fact it's going boom now and it's DMIN.. is crazy
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Could it be that 92l is surviving on sst's alone?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quoting stillwaiting:
have feeling 92L is going to "blow-up" on us tonight,with slow regeneration begining and tomorrow the near 0% chance of developing people will have no choice but up their percentages,lol....


Shear is still high and will remain high for now.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
It would be quite crazy to have 92l become a TD 4-5 days from now. Afternoon all.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quoting JLPR2:


whats your point?
92L isn't even a TD so why would there be higher winds with it?
no need to bark, jmo. thats all we do here is give opinions. is shear not wind? if i'm wrong about that correct me please. i am no meteorologist. lol!
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This storm seems to blow up more at night... we will see I guess in about 6 hours or so what he does.
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Anyone notice that the last ships run on 92l takes it to 50 mph at hour 120?
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Quoting Levi32:


Might have a better idea by then based on how it's looking. But we won't really know how much of a threat it is until it actually enters the gulf.
Is the heat of the water helping it stay alive? Also does land really do anything to an Invest compared to what it would do to a TC?
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have feeling 92L is going to "blow-up" on us tonight,with slow regeneration begining and tomorrow the near 0% chance of developing people will have no choice but up their percentages,lol....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
Quoting JLPR2:


whats your point?
92L isn't even a TD so why would there be higher winds with it?
I've spent a good amount of my life on the southeast coast of the Dominican Republic and during the mid to late summer when the tropical waves came through the winds would gust past 60 mph easily.

From the land all you can see is a long, towering line of thunderstorms to the east racing towards you very quickly. A strong gust of wind hits right ahead of the rain, blows for about 5-10 minutes, rains really hard and then it's usually over.

I've never experienced a legitimate tropical wave in Florida... just used to see them when I lived down there.
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Quoting scott39:
So by Sunday we should know if 92L is going to be a threat to the GOM?


Might have a better idea by then based on how it's looking but we won't really know how much of a threat it is until it actually enters the gulf.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Over the next 3 days....near zero.

After that if it remains a defined system it could possibly be trouble in the Gulf of Mexico, but that situation will have to be assessed once 92L crosses the Caribbean.
So by Sunday we should know if 92L is going to be a threat to the GOM?
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Quoting Levi32:


No it's not. TUTT can't form CDO-like blowups of convection and bands. The tropical system itself does that on its own.


Really? Dang, it's a fighter! 30 knots of shear can't stop it? Wow!
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Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NDC093-172030-
/O.NEW.KBIS.TO.W.0013.100617T2004Z-100617T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 300 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GACKLE...OR 24 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN. DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND AND WINDSOR.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 9919 4707 9887 4677 9915 4684 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 199DEG 24KT 4683 9919

$$

HEINERT/AYD








Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
302 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

NDC013-023-172030-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-100617T2030Z/
BURKE ND-DIVIDE ND-
302 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN DIVIDE AND WESTERN
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 259 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTH NORTHWEST OF NOONAN...OR TWO MILES SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN DIVIDE AND
WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4901 10266 4862 10251 4862 10289 4864 10291
4900 10334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 107DEG 13KT 4896 10305

$$

KINNEY







Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MNC041-172030-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0006.100617T1951Z-100617T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
DOUGLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KENSINGTON...OR ABOUT OVER HOFFMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BRANDON...
EVANSVILLE...
GARFIELD...
MELBY...
MILLERVILLE...
CARLOS...
MILTONA...
ROSE CITY...
HOLMES...
LEAF VALLEY...
BELLE RIVER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 9520 4609 9514 4604 9515 4577 9558
4576 9561 4576 9577 4609 9578 4611 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 212DEG 38KT 4585 9573

$$

TRH







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
theirs sheer over 92L,however I doubt its over 30kts and it'll be dropping to around 20kts over the next 24hrs IMO,see the bulge of lower sheer to the south,its building north and when 92L gets into some waters w/decent heat content the real show should begin as sheer values continue to drop/shift north....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
828. unf97
Quoting emagirl:
so what are the chances of 92 developing


Just keep watching it. Right now 30 knots of wind shear by conventional wisdom would stop development at the surface to occur, but 92L has proven to be a fighter to this point. If it somehow can survive another 24-36 hours and move westward, then the invest may have a chance by early next week.
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Quoting cg2916:


And you have to remember, if the models are right, it goes over Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and Cuba, which would probably hurt it.


Hence the near-zero.....plus the shear.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting cg2916:
Why did the NHC put 92L back on the map? Don't they know that the convection is entirely TUTT-enhanced?


No it's not. TUTT can't form CDO-like blowups of convection and bands. The tropical system itself does that on its own.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Levi32:


Over the next 3 days....near zero.

After that if it remains a defined system it could possibly be trouble in the Gulf of Mexico, but that situation will have to be assessed once 92L crosses the Caribbean.


And you have to remember, if the models are right, it goes over Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and Cuba, which would probably hurt it.
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822. xcool
<<< noo comments on 92L BEEPBEEP
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Quoting emagirl:
so what are the chances of 92 developing


Over the next 3 days....near zero.

After that if it remains a defined system it could possibly be trouble in the Gulf of Mexico, but that situation will have to be assessed once 92L crosses the Caribbean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
so what are the chances of 92 developing
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but it doesn't look like it's moving Due west to me
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Why did the NHC put 92L back on the map? Don't they know that the convection is entirely TUTT-enhanced?
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i don't see 50 anywhere on noaa. levi- what kind of shear do you see over it right now?
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ex 92L should at least pump a small swell into Florida, I'll take it!
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Quoting Cazatormentas:


The second part of that video like to me a lot. 92L and ex-92L shows burst of deep convection cyclically, as be shown by common tropical waves at diurnal - nocturnal phases but, in most of the life shown in the video, I can discover cyclonic rotation and a LLCC at times. Surprisely, the last burst of convection has ended in a new developing of a LLCC more evident.

Many thanks! I love it!


The guy that made that video used to be a blogger here, but no one bothers to thank him here including me. I was lurking when he got permanently banned from here. Pity as he does some decent work for others that use and find interesting. anyway I found him on youtube and subscribe to his videos as i cannot trust his stuff will make it in here everytime in a timely manner. even though his posts were censored shut, enough people quoted him who were not censored. he was a pretty funny guy.
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Quoting StormW:


???


the area of shear is lifting northwards based on satellite, and if the system continues due west as this shear moves north, it may enter conditions more conducive for some development
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813. unf97
Quoting 900MB:
92L has everything stacked against it- first it was too far South, climatology has been working against it all the way, it died twice, dried twice, and it has faced shear, shear, and more shear.

Conclusion- Sea Surface Temps have been from good to excellent for development all the way and are making a big difference. This is gonna be a long season folks!


Spot on! Very good points.
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Jiminy Christmas will he EVER go away? Come on! "Wanna be Alex" just gets a whippin' and keeps on a tickin'! What is going on for Heaven's sake?
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810. 900MB
92L has everything stacked against it- first it was too far South, climatology has been working against it all the way, it died twice, dried twice, and it has faced shear, shear, and more shear.

Conclusion- Sea Surface Temps have been from good to excellent for development all the way and are making a big difference. This is gonna be a long season folks!
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809. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
19:45....convective blob already getting beaten down on the west side from shear.



yeah, those clouds to the west are going to fly like daggers into 92L
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19:45....convective blob already getting beaten down on the west side from shear.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
806. JLPR2
Quoting sarahjola:
noaa says 25 to 30 kts. i have a feeling that noaa is right. thats only 29 to 35 mph winds


whats your point?
92L isn't even a TD so why would there be higher winds with it?
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More recent pic:



There's enough energy out there for orographic lifting up 65 feet to produce torrential downpours... lol .... simplified, but u get the drift...
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804. xcool
haha
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Quoting sarahjola:
noaa says 25 to 30 kts. i have a feeling that noaa is right. thats only 29 to 35 mph winds


It's 30 knots over the center and 50 knots in the core of the subtropical jet to the nothwest. CIMSS is perfectly correct.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.