Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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1202. Levi32
Noticeably stronger language in this TWO.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
1201. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


XD!! I am gonna stop following this. It's not good for me... or the future of my hair


haha!
Remember if 92L manages something I'll go and take your bald picture LOL!
XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1200. scott39
I think 92L likes shear!
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1199. AlbySC
Good evening all, long time lurker here. Very excited to follow this season, seems it will be an especially rough one, hope all will be save.

Special appreciations to Levi and 456, best rational bloggers in my book, a learn a great deal from you guys - love your graphics - thanks and keep it up.

Back to lurking...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1198. Levi32
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Couldn't help but share that. Wonder where all the weather went? (just knew you would be the one to check it, just to see if I were right. ha)

I get the email messages, but the only one I have about GOES is talking about a June 22 maneuver for GOES-11 and 13.

"Topic: GOES-11 (GOES-West) North/South Maneuver, June 22, 2010
Message Issued: June 17, 2010, 1310 UTC
Satellites Impacted: GOES-11 (GOES-West) and GOES-13 (GOES-East)
Products Impacted: GOES-11 (GOES-West) Imager and Sounder Data and
GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data
Date/Time of Initial Impact: June 22, 2010 0118 UTC"
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1196. JLPR2
so we are back to 20%
O_o
92L is one of the best fighters we have had in awhile
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mybe loveing 92L i new you wont give up may be i by 92L a dress i wounder what color it likes
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
1194. IKE
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1193. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:

Actually have seen composited IR satellite images do that...when it wasn't real.


Mmm yeah....alignment isn't always perfect.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
wow guys from -0% to 0% to 20% the little engine that keep on going and is saying I know I can I know I can Nothing can stop me not even 40-50 kt shear
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1191. Levi32
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Still works for Pottery's neighborhood:




Don't forget these work.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
1190. Relix
Quoting txjac:
relix, went to bed last night thinking your hair was safe ...


XD!! I am gonna stop following this. It's not good for me... or the future of my hair
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Because it wasn't actually a double-eye. The one on the right is the real eye. The band of clouds between the two is the western eyewall. The left-hand "eye" is just a patch of clear sky where thunderstorms got collapsed by dry air entrainment.


Actually have seen composited IR satellite images do that...when it wasn't real.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1188. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a nice, very clear day, to me.



LOL. Couldn't help but share that. Wonder where all the weather went? (just knew you would be the one to check it, just to see if I were right. ha)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT..
.OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, back up to 20% after being wiped off the map last night. I tell ya, if this thing develops after going through this, I don't know what to expect come August!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1185. leo305
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



haha wow.. this has been one of the most exciting tracking experiences I've had in a while
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1184. txjac
relix, went to bed last night thinking your hair was safe ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1183. IKE
92L is not going to die anytime soon, until it hits and stays over a land mass or the mountains kill it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1182. leo305
banding features developing on the SE side of 92L center still embedded in the convection(I think the system may be trying to re develop under the convection so it's slowing down)

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Still works for Pottery's neighborhood:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a spin on the radar wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...IT
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. leo305
shear is dropping over 92L..

By this time tomorrow it may only be under 20KT shear..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Getting busier and busier in the Eastern Pacific. I'm sure the Atlantic isn't too far behind:


Tropical Storm Blas - 5:00 pm NHC Advisory:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Upper flow shows the equatorial ridge building into the southeast Caribbean. This is starting to push the TUTT off to the north, and will eventually result in a reduction of wind shear over the northeast Caribbean, but not enough to help 92L much. This ridge is important more because it is setting the stage for the waves following behind 92L that may be a problem in the Caribbean, and will have favorable conditions underneath this ridge to develop. This ridge will eventually expand to encompass the western Caribbean as well.



Great graphic Levi -- I was wondering how that ridge worked
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1174. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
23:15....new hot towers keep going up. It's fighting really hard, I'm proud of poor thing...lol.





haha! XD
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1173. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a nice, very clear day, to me.



That's like....in 200 years when all the cloud tops will be above freezing?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
92L could take off vary fast has soon has wind shear lowers
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone want a good laugh? Just go to the NOAA site and try and look at an image. Satellite must be off.

Looks like a nice, very clear day, to me.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
The radar shows banding and it looks like it mowing south of due west
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Quoting txjac:
Evening all ..just got in from work so I'm confused ... didnt I look at the activity map and NOT see 92L earlier? Did it fade and then re-strengthen?
That is funny..... I know I looked early today and it was "Gone". Then when I get home from work pooffffff there it is 92L is back and again I think it has 5 of 9 lives left....

taco :o)
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1168. Levi32
23:15....new hot towers keep going up. It's fighting really hard, I'm proud of poor thing...lol.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
1167. Levi32
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Thanks. Sunday & Monday many on this blog were hyping the BAMM model; does that still seem reasonable?


Yeah the 18z BAMM would be a reasonable track.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF KIESTER...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALBERT LEA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yup, courtesy of that building ridge to its south.


If not for that move NW a few days back, 92L could be hitting the islands as a tropical storm
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1164. leo305
you can see the tight swirl embedded in the convection on the radar
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1162. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Kinda tells me that the shear just south of the system is favorable for development


Yup, courtesy of that building ridge to its south.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26599
guys I think that once shear eases up on 92L which I thank and maybe know it will the LLC will come back to full 360 turning and instead of being a trough of low pressure it will be just a low pressure system
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Quoting Levi32:
It's trying as hard as it possibly can. This is the first time since the shear started that I've actually seen real hints of outflow on the south and west sides of the convection.....that "feathery" appearance of the white-colored clouds at the edges of the ball.



Kinda tells me that the shear just south of the system is favorable for development
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Antilles radar

animation
Thank You
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1156. Grothar
Anyone want a good laugh? Just go to the NOAA site and try and look at an image. Satellite must be off.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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when will the TUTT move out of the way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
1153. Relix
I am sure I am witnessing an epic battle of shear vs. storm. Braveheart? pff that's nothing compared to this fighter! Levi's words also make it sound even more epic haha.

"It's trying as hard as it possibly can. "

=P!
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Antilles radar

animation
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.