Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1252 - 1202

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55Blog Index

1252. txjac
Quoting BDAwx:


yes! it eats its shredded wheats, and its shearios - so it can grow up to be big and strong :)


Too funny!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They published a new date to implement the GFS upgrade, July 27.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Un-Freakin Real. I am beginning to fear 92L and what it may do, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1249. IKE
The John Hope rule. If it hasn't developed by the time it gets in the eastern Caribbean, it won't until it reaches the western Caribbean.

I'd like to know his thoughts on 92L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Last Visible:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. scott39
Quoting BDAwx:


yes! it eats its shredded wheats, and its shearios - so it can grow up to be big and strong :)
Clever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1246. java162
taking a look at the radar look it appears that the storm is moving south of due west.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1245. BDAwx
Quoting Midweststorm:
I think 92L eats shear for breakfast from the looks of things.


yes! it eats its shredded wheats, and its shearios - so it can grow up to be big and strong :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1244. bappit
Quoting AllStar17:
So, back up to 20% after being wiped off the map last night. I tell ya, if this thing develops after going through this, I don't know what to expect come August!


I think they give a forecast for a specific time period. Last night's near 0% for the following 48 hours is looking good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1242. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It really is like ground hog day -- every night its the same thing. lol

92L may develop into something just to spite the forces that have said its suppose to be dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
More hot towers building all over, notice the yellow?

Looks to me like the convection will take over the complete system as the night progresses.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1239. scott39
Levi, What is the probability of 92L running into much land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1238. Ossqss
I was just checkin the alternatives on the Sat issue. http://spaceweather.com/

Aside from some B class flares from an emerging Sunspot, not much up there but this excerpt from the forecast. These read pretty, well, see for yourself :)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

"IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated
period of active conditions on day 1 (18 June). Conditions are
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 2 and 3 (19-20 June)."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think 92L eats shear for breakfast from the looks of things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1236. Grothar
More hot towers building all over, notice the yellow?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Reason I asked is this. FCC is looking into taking some of the band used for satellite transmission and realocating it.

Yeah, that is going around making some noise. Why the FCC would sell spectrum for wireless use when NOAA's established bands for their satellite comms AND radiosondes(!) are in the same range is beyond me. Money shouldn't be the reason...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


I think it was 99L back in 2007, you might remember this one. It raced across the Caribbean and we all thought it would become a TD...conditions were favorable but it just moved too fast. We all tracked it for a week at least.


I think I remember that one.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1232. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised...

Welcome to Hurricane Season, 2010!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
This may be the longest tracking invests, without ever being designated a TD or greater, that I've seen in at least 2 years.


I think it was 99L back in 2007, you might remember this one. It raced across the Caribbean and we all thought it would become a TD...conditions were favorable but it just moved too fast. We all tracked it for a week at least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1230. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm surprised...



I didn't think they would give it that either.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
I'm surprised...

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1228. scott39
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

NHC might be thinking shear could lower some. Latest TWO gives some hope for 92L. Bad news is...what does this do to Haiti?
As much as i would love to track this, I hope for that poor countries sake, 92L dies down to a breeze and a light rain. They have been thru enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

MODIS from US, Goddard, and JPL...operational dictates multiple sources. No GOES in my office.


Reason I asked is this. FCC is looking into taking some of the band used for satellite transmission and realocating it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1226. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
This may be the longest tracking invests, without ever being designated a TD or greater, that I've seen in at least 2 years.


Really? Wow...doesn't seem like it's been that long.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Wow ... check out the GFS 18Z shear forecast

@+12 (2 am EDT):


@+18 (8 am EDT):


@+24 (2 pm EDT):


If 92L tracks into the NE Carribbean, rather than over the islands, then watch out.



will it find lower wind shear?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Use the NASA site


It does seem that some of the sources of the GOES images are still available...

The places that receive the raw data directly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1223. Levi32
Quoting AlbySC:
Good evening all, long time lurker here. Very excited to follow this season, seems it will be an especially rough one, hope all will be save.

Special appreciations to Levi and 456, best rational bloggers in my book, a learn a great deal from you guys - love your graphics - thanks and keep it up.

Back to lurking...


Nice to see you Alby, and thanks :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1222. IKE
Thanks...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1221. BVImom
Evening All. Just thought I'd let you know it was a beautiful sunset here in the British Virgin Islands but I can only wonder what on earth we are going to wake up to. I've spent the last two days watching a "blob" that simply won't go "poof". Thanks for all the great info - because of you all, we at least are ready for the weather in the morning - whatever it may be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1220. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Rainfall amounts won't change too much whether this develops or not. Heavy convection is to be expected with this feature all the way across the Caribbean due to the high amount of tropical moisture it is carrying with it, which is being lifted by divergence from the TUTT. Tropical systems like to blow up with convection when they encounter the TUTT, even if they are being sheared. Rainfall amounts might be a little higher for Haiti with a more developed system, but not by much.


That's what I was concerned about...the rainfall.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1219. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


Hate not having satellite.


Goodness guys....these work lol. NASA is struggling but works.

NRL works
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting IKE:


Hate not having satellite.


Use the NASA site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1210. DaytonaBeachWatcher 11:45 PM GMT on June 17, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
mybe loveing 92L i new you wont give up may be i by 92L a dress i wounder what color it likes


Right now, it seems to like yellow, LOL


with yellow dots
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1215. IKE
This may be the longest tracking invests, without ever being designated a TD or greater, that I've seen in at least 2 years.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1197. atmoaggie

000
NOUS71 KNES 172308
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY: GOES-11 AND GOES-13 SATELLITE IMAGERY
*DETAILS OF THE OUTAGE:
*ESPC IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH GOES-11 AND GOES-13 DATA. PROBLEM
IS BEING INVESTIGATED.


Processing Center Problem.

In your work do you receive satellite data directly?

MODIS from USF, Goddard, and JPL...operational dictates multiple sources. No GOES in my office.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

NHC might be thinking shear could lower some. Latest TWO gives some hope for 92L. Bad news is...what does this do to Haiti?


Rainfall amounts won't change too much whether this develops or not. Heavy convection is to be expected with this feature all the way across the Caribbean due to the high amount of tropical moisture it is carrying with it, which is being lifted by divergence from the TUTT. Tropical systems like to blow up with convection when they encounter the TUTT, even if they are being sheared. Rainfall amounts might be a little higher for Haiti with a more developed system, but not by much.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1212. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Still works for Pottery's neighborhood:


We just Special, I guess!
LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
20% is a big jump from 0%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
mybe loveing 92L i new you wont give up may be i by 92L a dress i wounder what color it likes


Right now, it seems to like yellow, LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:


XD!! I am gonna stop following this. It's not good for me... or the future of my hair
With all due respect you should not lose your hair because it was declaired dead and even the 92L was taken off, so you were right..... So your hair should stay no cutting it all off this time.... LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1208. xcool
i give 92L 30%
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1207. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1197. atmoaggie

000
NOUS71 KNES 172308
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY: GOES-11 AND GOES-13 SATELLITE IMAGERY
*DETAILS OF THE OUTAGE:
*ESPC IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH GOES-11 AND GOES-13 DATA. PROBLEM
IS BEING INVESTIGATED.


Processing Center Problem.

In your work do you receive satellite data directly?


Hate not having satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1206. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I think 92L likes shear!


LOL.

NHC might be thinking shear could lower some. Latest TWO gives some hope for 92L. Bad news is...what does this do to Haiti?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1205. JLPR2
When is 92L supposed to be in the vicinity of PR?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1197. atmoaggie

000
NOUS71 KNES 172308
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY: GOES-11 AND GOES-13 SATELLITE IMAGERY
*DETAILS OF THE OUTAGE:
*ESPC IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH GOES-11 AND GOES-13 DATA. PROBLEM
IS BEING INVESTIGATED.


Processing Center Problem.

In your work do you receive satellite data directly?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1203. leo305
let's see what happens
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1202. Levi32
Noticeably stronger language in this TWO.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700

Viewing: 1252 - 1202

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
27 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron