Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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Someone needs to prank call Levi and tell him it's time to get up :) :) :)
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Only two models take it to a TS (HWFI,GHMI)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Good thing JFV isn't here. He would be praying for the HWRF to verify.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2599. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 92 2010061812 BEST 0 161N 622W 25 1011 WV


96 miles further west in 6 hours...moving 16mph due west.
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still moving west

AL, 92, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 622W, 25, 1011, WV,
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AL 92 2010061812 BEST 0 161N 622W 25 1011 WV
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Quoting sailingallover:

Yes the 11:00UTC pass today missed it two leaving a a 3-4 degree gap. But the winds on either side of the gap show no signs of a COC. Neither does meteo FR radar that I can see.
Not in Vis Sat either.
Any product out there that clearly show a COC?

Im wondering how it will interact being under the upper level High it is going to go under. Will it dampen convection only along the leading edge or across the whole wave? Or will 92L's convection overcome the subsidence and then the UH will help vent it
Last night radar showed a circulation but it remained open.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
One item of note in the MDR, and it fits nicely with Dr. M's recent post with regard to moisture level increases caused by SST temp increases, is the incredible amount of moisture/water vapor in the MDR just South of the TUTT all the way from the Antilles to Africa.....All that moisture will rise along with the TUTT so dry air intrusion will not be much of a problem in the sub-equatorial ridge.....We may well get a few early Cape Verde storms, in July, this year.....We need to keep our eyes on the emerging waves off of Africa in July me thinks.
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Quoting Dakster:


Have any peacocks? That has to be one of the most annoying birds god ever created.


As a golfer... I would have to say a Canadian Goose.... not as loud, but a lot more of them.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Blog VERY quiet this morning.
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2592. Dakster
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thanks, but i goy enough them annoying birds down here.


Have any peacocks? That has to be one of the most annoying birds god ever created.
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2580. YourCommonSense 12:32 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


HEY TAZ!!!!!!!!!!



hi
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2590. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:
Is there a COC and if so approximately where is it???


Not sure there's much of a spin left....I can't tell yet.

COC is near 16.1N and 60.6W
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Good Morning. Great to see, for the Lesser Antilles, that the sheer wall took a lot of the punch away from 92L; I was expecting total destruction of the system overnight but am happy to see a much less organized disturbance this morning.......But for the sheer caused by the TUTT location (expected in June), they could have been looking at a Cat 4 this morning.
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2587. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:
while it is slow, can we agree not to do the TWO % Guessing Game for the 2 o'clock?


Thanks Jeff, now I have nothing to post. I guess!!!
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Is there a COC and if so approximately where is it???
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I thought it'd be a TD this morning,crow please;)....looks like a open wave as the convection w/any MCC has dies off just like levi predicted,92L isn't dead yet still worth watch IMO...also looks like some crow for me for stating that the near 0% chance people would be changing their minds today,looks like I'm the one who's changing his mind!!!
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Excerpt from Preliminary Carribean Discussion:


THE EASTERLY WAVE IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE USVI BY 18-21 UTC
TODAY...ENTERING EASTERN PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 00-03 UTC THIS
EVENING...AND EJECT ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AROUND
06-09 UTC TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG CYCLONIC ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PERTURBATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH
A 20-25KT WIND SURGE TO PRECEDE WAVE PASSAGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT
DIVERGE ON WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS GOING TO DEVELOP. THE GFS
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF TAKE THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE VI/PUERTO RICO
FORECAST AREA.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV


BOO
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lol
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be vary vary vary quiet am hunting JFV
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2575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


off to work be back at lunch
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2574. 7544
and the models really want to bring this across to fla and gom the question is how strong will it be the way 92l has been showing off i dont think anyone really knows but 92l stay tuned

also the hawf jumps on the ban waggon for 92l and two other systems to follow .could se fla get 1 one two or maybe a 3 punch in june ????/
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Tropical Update with Oil Gusher Live Feeds
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Quoting stormpetrol:
COC of 92L imo at 15N/62.5W moving WSW, looking a little ragged now , but will reorganize later today/night to become a bad dude down the road , just my opinion.

There is no sign of a circulation there in the ASCAT pass or am I reading this
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds88.png
wrong?
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Unlike yesterday I do not see a coc today
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2569. IKE
See post 58 from 4 years ago>>>Link
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6Z GFS is very wet for the NE Caribbean including the N Leewards/VI/PR
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L has been interacting with upper level winds since yesterday. And ASCAT completely missed the COC yesterday.

Yes the 11:00UTC pass today missed it two leaving a a 3-4 degree gap. But the winds on either side of the gap show no signs of a COC. Neither does meteo FR radar that I can see.
Not in Vis Sat either.
Any product out there that clearly show a COC?

Im wondering how it will interact being under the upper level High it is going to go under. Will it dampen convection only along the leading edge or across the whole wave? Or will 92L's convection overcome the subsidence and then the UH will help vent it
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2565. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


the word "ouch" comes to mind. that makes me think of something that may be unique about this season ... re-generation.

typically we count on storms to get weakened by terrain features, then struggle to regain former glory. i think this year that may not apply as much, as SST (and especially TCHP)will support rapidid re-intensification of systems after they traverse a land mass. just a theory.


To get the numbers the experts are forecasting, you're probably correct. If this season doesn't come close to what nearly everyone is forecasting, a lot of cred will be taking a hit. I can't see them being wrong.

I doubt 92L dies anytime soon. I think it's final destination is the GOM/GOO.
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antilles radar is down :(
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2563. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Disappointed?



don't be
this has come far
from a place that was unbelievable
travel far to the brink
to make us stop and think
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92L been ducking heaviest shear, like a pilot trying to fly around the worse turbulence.
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it is evident from recent sat pics that thee are a number of vortices within 92L. i get the impression that the system is trying hard to establish a proper LLC. shear is on the decline opening up a window of oppurtunity for 92L to go through a period of organisation
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST FRI JUN 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW LOCATED JUST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS...MAINLY OVER WATERS
SOUTH OF VIEQUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON FRONT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY
LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF
LOCAL EFFECTS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST AND AFFECT PUERTO RICO THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
NOCTURNAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM COULD INCREASE
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING THE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...AND TKPK FROM 18/10Z THROUGH AT LEAST 18/22Z.
MEANWHILE...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TIST...AND TISX
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...AND TJPS IN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...THE BEFORE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING ACTIVE
AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOW VISIBILITIES...GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS CONDITIONS
TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATOR SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 80 70 60
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 80 70 70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND
VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-
WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.
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COC of 92L imo at 15N/62.5W moving WSW, looking a little ragged now , but will reorganize later today/night to become a bad dude down the road , just my opinion.
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Quoting msphar:
Anybody have a synopsis of what is happening in the islands ? I am just waking up here and much removed from the region, so no sense for what is going on...

My focus = is Eastern Puerto Rico far enough North to be unaffected now ???

I'm in STT Right now teh bulk of 92L is to far east still. It will be this afternoon when we start getting something out it depending on how the convection develops today. It is so far south and tracking due west so even if it does start to develop it should go south of PR. Also we will have a lot of shear over us which should tear anything that comes over us apart. But we will be getting a lot of rain...
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2554. IKE
HWRF @6Z...lighting up like a Christmas tree...
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2553. calder
legitimate*
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2552. calder
Quoting DestinJeff:
worse than any iteration of JFV, is the relentless individual forecasts for activity that get repeated over and over and over ...

just like once it gets started it takes at least 100 comments to subside.


did follow mine with a pretty legimate question however...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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