Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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1352. AllStar17
12:36 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
If it stays on its current trajectory, it appears, as of now, that it will miss the big islands (i.e. Hispaniola, Cuba)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1351. java162
12:36 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't want to be under that. Isn't that approaching the island 456 lives on?



thats nothing.... the radar has looked a lot worse than that in the past
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1350. BVI
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't want to be under that. Isn't that approaching the island 456 lives on?


Thanks, am just past 456 in the British Virgin Islands, looks like a nasty few days coming up
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1349. Relix
Quoting StormW:


Indeed.


Awaiting your take with lots of anticipation sir =)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
it almost seems as if its relocated its low level circulation under the convection.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
As some of you may know, two years ago I made the google earth images that show the locations of the bloggers.


With so many new people, and some that have left, I think its time to update. You can see more details on my blog. If you would like to be included in the new images, send me WU mail with your zip code, or leave a comment on the blog. Please be patient, it takes a while to build the database.

Zoo

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
1346. Levi32
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't want to be under that. Isn't that approaching the island 456 lives on?


Yes, will be passing just south of St. Kitts, where he lives.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1345. Grothar
Quoting leo305:


they will continue to build, as DMAX is later tonight..


Yes, but the thing is, it shouldn't have been building at, all given the current conditions.



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Levi, in another topic, the Gulf of Guinea is turning very cold.

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1343. Levi32
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
if i re call there where a few stroms but got name and where under even higher wind shear then 92L was in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Multiple -80˚C hot towers can be noted.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1340. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like more than "rain" looks like very severe weather.


I wouldn't want to be under that. Isn't that approaching the island 456 lives on?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not in the short term but possibly if it gets into the GOM.


Put that twerp on ignore. He downcasted everything last year. With what i'm seeing, 92L is coming back and just won't give up.
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1338. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Animation link to posts 1328 & 1329
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1337. JLPR2
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting IKE:


Good lord.
Looks like more than "rain" looks like very severe weather.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


Got a clean shave....and here comes that beard a'growin again!
Really? You expect the convection to die down. It seems to still be firing -80˚C could tops so its definitely not dying.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1333. IKE
Quoting weathersp:
Oh hi little leeward islands.. I will rain on you now..



Good lord.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1332. MahFL
Convection is building NW into the supposed shear.
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1329. Ossqss
New image should have been out by now?

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Oh hi little leeward islands.. I will rain on you now..

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even so Levi, we have seen instances where the center on a system has relocated itself due to shear or such.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Quoting SykKid:
I really just can't see 92L developing...
Not in the short term but possibly if it gets into the GOM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1325. MZV
I'm actually not all THAT surprised to still be talking about 92L. We have been through this before. A long as there is a low level circ, there is the chance of regeneration. I know there have been other waves we followed in the early season all the way up the Atlantic coast and out to sea.
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Wonder if they will restart the GFDL & HWRF, seems plausible given the increase to 20%
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1323. Levi32
Quoting P451:
Good Evening.

36 Hours, Enhanced IR Imagery, 1 Hour Frame Increments.



Got a clean shave....and here comes that beard a'growin again!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting leo305:


they will continue to build, as DMAX is later tonight..
First it has to go through what's left of the diurnal minimum before it goes into the diurnal maximum. Honestly I don't think that the diurnal cycles will have an affect on it so...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1321. Levi32
Dvorak has the center way out here west of the convective ball though.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1318. leo305
Quoting Grothar:
The towers are really beginning to build fast. Each frame, they seem to expand.



they will continue to build, as DMAX is later tonight..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Good evening. Very interesting day on the blog so far.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1315. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
294. Levi32 12:20 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
1278. Levi32 12:12 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
.
ok but dont we have a strong MOJO comeing?


It may not be particularly strong but yes the MJO is starting to come over our area of the world, and will continue to do so during the next few weeks. You can see some green (upward motion) creeping into portions of the Atlantic


so is that when will see even lower wind shear?


An upward motion MJO pulse does help lower the wind shear, yes, and the GFS shows generally lower shear as we head towards the end of the month.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Levi32:


Um minus the shear and land masses....lol.
Lol. Speaking of the MJO, are you familiar Pineapple Express since you live in Alaska. I just learned about it a couple of days ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1312. Levi32
It won't quit! lol

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
somehow I have a feeling some of us are going to hate alex.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
Side note, they are starting to find tar balls out here in South Florida. Not knowing if they are related to whats going on in the Gulf
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
1309. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, I hate to say it but this with system refiring and the MJO coming around. Does that in a sense set up a perfect scenario for storm development?


Um minus the shear and land masses....lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1308. Grothar
Shear seems to be decreasing. Depends on which way the system moves. I believe the thinking now, is that the system may move into a more favorable area, at least in the short term, which is why the NHC moved it up a little in percentage.

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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, with the creeping MJO what does that mean for us truly then with 92L in the region?
Upward motion from the MJO is a traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that tends to enhance convection. So if and when the next upward motion MJO passes over 92L it will tend to moisten up the environment and could help lower things such as SAL and dry air. It also can increase precipitation inside the system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1306. Levi32
The thing about the John Hope rule is it may not apply quite like that in this situation. Partly due to an active monsoon trough and partly due to 92L's presence, the area of strongest trade winds in the Caribbean has shifted west to more south of Haiti and Jamaica, instead of south of Puerto Rico like it usually is.

Also, John Hope's rule applies very well to tropical waves and open troughs, but 92L is a nearly closed, well-defined circulation that won't be as affected by a strong trade wind flow as a broad trough. Strong surface winds prevent tropical waves and surface troughs from closing off into circulations, but 92L is already almost there to begin with, so the effect will not be as significant.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
1305. DehSoBe
LOL!! Funny, true and a little scarey!
Member Since: June 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
Levi, I hate to say it but this with system refiring and the MJO coming around. Does that in a sense set up a perfect scenario for storm development?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
YAY ME I WASD POST 1300 YAY ME
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
1302. xcool
Levi32 & that why you see big wave too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.