Globe has 3rd consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2010

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The globe recorded its warmest May since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The May temperature anomaly of 0.69°C (1.24°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.06°C. We've now had three consecutive warmest months on record, the first time that has happened since 1998. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated May 2010 as the warmest May on record, tied with May 1998. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - May, as the warmest such period on record, and the last 12-month period (June 2009 - May 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. May 2010 global ocean temperatures were the second warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in May, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from May 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for May 2010. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Asia and Southeast Asia record their hottest temperatures in history
The mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on May 26. Not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The evidence for this record is detailed in a post I made earlier this month. The Pakistan heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi. Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

An average May for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 50th coldest (66th warmest) May in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Idaho had its second coolest May on record, while it was Montana's fourth coolest, Wyoming's and Oregon's seventh coolest, Utah's eighth, California's ninth, and Nevada's tenth coolest such period. Rhode Island observed its second warmest May on record and Florida tied for its second warmest. Other states much warmer than normal during May included: Louisiana (4th warmest), Massachusetts (5th warmest), Connecticut (6th warmest), New Hampshire (7th warmest), Mississippi and New York (each 8th warmest), and New Jersey (9th warmest).

NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March-May) was about 5 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to spring's elevated values: widespread (2-3 times larger than average) coverage of anomalously warm daily max and min temperatures, and above-average extent of extreme one-day precipitation events. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, tornadic activity in May was near normal with 290 preliminary tornado reports.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., May 2010 ranked as the 35th wettest May in the 116-year record. The state of Washington had its third wettest May on record and extreme precipitation events in Tennessee and Kentucky contributed to their sixth and seventh wettest such period, respectively. It was the tenth wettest May in North Dakota. At the end of May, approximately 3% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is a very low amount of drought for the U.S.

La Niña likely by July
El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling to 0.50°C below average by June 14, according to NOAA.. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is reporting that this number was 0.31°C below average (as of June 13.) Since La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number reaches 0.50°C below average, we are right at the threshold of a La Niña. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, and it is likely that a full-fledged La Niña will emerge by July. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation."

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and the emergence of La Niña will likely occur by July. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, suggest that a much more active Atlantic hurricane season that usual likely in 2010. The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was about 40% above average in activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20.


Figure 2. Ice extent through June 15, 2010 in the Arctic, compared to the record low years of 2006 and 2007. Record low Arctic ice extent began about June 1, and has remained at record low extent for the first half of June. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Arctic sea ice extent reaches a record low at end of May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in May 2010 was the 9th lowest since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent was near average at the beginning of May, but thanks to the fastest rate of decline ever observed during the month of May (50% faster than average), ice extent reached a record low by the end of May. Ice extent has remained at record low levels throughout the first half of June, as well. Ice volume was also at a record low at the end of May, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center, due to the fact the Arctic is now dominated by thin first and second-year ice.

Record low Northern Hemisphere snow extent in May
For the second consecutive month, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported that the snow cover footprint over North America was the smallest on record for the month. A record-small snow footprint was also observed over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

The Atlantic is quiet
The 92L low pressure system, now located about 300 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, has been completely disrupted by wind shear and dry air, and is no longer a threat to develop. The remnants of 92L, which are currently kicking up some strong thunderstorms due to interaction with an upper-level trough of low pressure, will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Friday, and into Puerto Rico Friday night through Saturday. On Sunday, the disturbance could bring heavy rains to northern Haiti. The earthquake zone in southern Haiti may also receive heavy enough rains to be of concern for the 1.5 million people living in tents and under tarps.

None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though the GFS model was suggesting a weak development moving through the southern Lesser Antilles Islands seven days from now.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component through Sunday, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east to Panama City, Florida, and oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. Ocean current forecasts for early next week show a weakening of the eastward-flowing currents along the Florida Panhandle, which would limit the eastward movement of oil so that it would not move past Panama City. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has launched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island (Beachfoxx)
Tar & Oil from the DWH spill spoil our beaches - it hit shoreline about 11:30 am CST today
Tar Goobers on Okaloosa Island

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1401. SykKid 12:51 AM GMT on June 18, 2010
Does anyone actually believe this thing has a legit shot at development? I just can't see it happening.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


downcaster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting pipelines:
you can see the coc on the radar embedded in the rain band, how is it possible the coc is located far west of the convection?
The shear has blown all the storms that developed over the center to the NE. Hence the "naked swirl"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
I have posted a brief new blog entry. Please read and comment! Any comments are greatly appreciated.

Here's a comment: Haven't you posted this enough times that everyone has seen it at least 3 times?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Looks like you're in the bulls-eye.


Well Ike --- I hate the taste of crow, but I guess I should throw the bird in the oven.
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1397. leo305
you can tell the low level center is jsut west of the convection, but also note that the convection is trying to wrap onto the low level center
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1396. java162
Quoting IKE:


Looks like you're in the bulls-eye.


yah!!! waitng for the rain to begin in the early morning hours
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1395. xcool
if he slow down oh boy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1393. JLPR2
Quoting tikikopamsxm:
Link


thank you!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting StormW:


FORECAST STEERING LAYERS MAPS
Looks like it should continue W with some WNW motion at times.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1391. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting Relix:


Awaiting your take with lots of anticipation sir =)


JFV??


No Taz, relix has been a member of the blog for quite some time
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
1390. IKE
Quoting java162:


exactly what i was saying earlier... by the way i am on the island south of guadeloupe


Looks like you're in the bulls-eye.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting DehSoBe:
Finally some thunderstorms in miami beach. All the rain has been blowen inland the last several days. Not much, but happy for this!
Yeah. I'm in Miami Beach too, it's definitely coming down.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
you can see the coc on the radar embedded in the rain band, how is it possible the coc is located far west of the convection?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have posted a brief new blog entry. Please read and comment! Any comments are greatly appreciated.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting StormW:


Not unless the upper level winds chill out.
The further south 92L goes the better.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:


Awaiting your take with lots of anticipation sir =)


JFV??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
1382. DehSoBe
Finally some thunderstorms in miami beach. All the rain has been blowen inland the last several days. Not much, but happy for this!
Member Since: June 14, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV,

AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 583W, 25, 1012, WV,

AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
No doubt about it. Outflow on the south side, inspite of it's being so assymetric.

This little critter just doesn't want to die.
Yeah, some equatorward outflow can be noted.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1377. Skyepony (Mod)
It's why I kept saying wait for it.. the Sea Surface Temps, as you get close to 60W they get ridiculous. Mid level shear hasn't been all that bad. Been hounded a little from the north but keeping it's nitch all along.
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looks to be slowing down too
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Several posters think, that if 92 survives, it will some how make it into the gulf. Could those that think that please post their reasoning behind it. ie, troughs, highs, steering currents. Thanks
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92L strengthening; latest pressure estimate down 1 millibar to 1011 millibars.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1372. java162
Quoting Levi32:
Radar out of the Antilles suggests that the center of 92L remains south of Guadeloupe's latitude and may have even lost some latitude in the last 6 hours.



exactly what i was saying earlier... by the way i am on the island south of guadeloupe
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1370. JLPR2
Can someone post the link to the islands radar?
Why didn't I save it last time T_T
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Weather456 is located all the way to the north just west of Antigua. He is located in Nevis, St. Kitts.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Radar out of the Antilles suggests that the center of 92L remains south of Guadeloupe's latitude and may have even lost some latitude in the last 6 hours.



I thought I saw 92L moving due west or just south of that. Maybe I was right.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV
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1366. Levi32
Radar out of the Antilles suggests that the center of 92L remains south of Guadeloupe's latitude and may have even lost some latitude in the last 6 hours.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1365. Relix
Quoting StormW:


Have to see what happens after it encounters the Islands...looking at forecast steering and current cloud motion on IR2, I expect this to cross very close, or over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, then possibly emerge just south of Cuba.


Any possibility of an actual regeneration at least before reaching PR?

(that would mean I have to go bald the next day but still =P)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
1363. JLPR2
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Because of 456's location, would it be possible to use his island's weather service or buoys to try to get wind speeds? Or even have him help us out?


we should get obs from all of the islands soon
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting IKE:


I should have put....it usually won't..until the W.Car.
Like they say, there is an exception to every rule. LOL
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1361. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Navy site has it at 16.0N;58.5W


6 hours ago, though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1359. java162
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Because of 456's location, would it be possible to use his island's weather service or buoys to try to get wind speeds? Or even have him help us out?


no he would be a bit too north...
Member Since: July 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 301
1358. Levi32
WindSat measured some light westerly surface winds east of the islands. The microwave sensor implies the center is west of the convective ball.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Hi Storm:

Had a question - the graphics that you posted earlier with the vorticity at the different levels, did I read that right the lower level vorticity exists, but weakens as it gets to the higher levels?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't want to be under that. Isn't that approaching the island 456 lives on?
No idea.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Because of 456's location, would it be possible to use his island's weather service or buoys to try to get wind speeds? Or even have him help us out?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
This is one of the few invests i've seen where Diurnal cycle means almost nothing If it's around tomorrow morn I think it will have a serious chance of developing. But if convection doesn't keep flaring up it will die
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If it stays on its current trajectory, it appears, as of now, that it will miss the big islands (i.e. Hispaniola, Cuba)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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